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SMU

SMU 31 at Cincinnati 28

CIN
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Hayden Moore pass intercepted Kyran Mitchell return for no gain to the SMU 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 6:17: Ryan Jones 20 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +7.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:57: Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 5 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +8.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:26: Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 25 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +25.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:22: Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 21 yds for a TD, (Hayden Moore pass to Devin Gray for Two-Point Conversion) — CIN win probability +47.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Josh Williams 27 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +16.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:08SMU 4th & 4 at CIN 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:22CIN 4th & 5 at SMU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:17CIN 4th & 3 at SMU 3, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−7.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:14CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:00SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 37, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:04CIN 4th & 26 at SMU 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−3.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:45SMU 4th & 13 at CIN 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−1.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−5.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:43CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−3.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:22CIN 4th & 3 at SMU 21, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%−0.8
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−6.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:59SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:08CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:34SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:10SMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:25CIN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:57SMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:26SMU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−2.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:22CIN Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    35.2%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    35.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5234% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
34.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
34.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+35
34.2%
Hayden Moore run for 35 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
34.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 12 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
34.2%
Mike Boone run for 9 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 7
0
34.2%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the SMU 7Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+3
34.2%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
34.2%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the SMU 3Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.6%
Hayden Moore run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3463% → 64%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
37.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for 22 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
36.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey Quinn, broken up by Cortez BroughtonSimilar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
36.8%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+6
36.7%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to QUINN, Trey, PENALTY CIN pass interference (STEPHENS, L.) 6 yards to the CIN41, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
36.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 6 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
36.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for no gain to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
36.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+32
36.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 32 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.7%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:1237% → 40%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
36.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Gerrid Doaks, broken up by Kyran MitchellSimilar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
36.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 14 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
37.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
36.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 12 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
37.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 15 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
37.5%
Michael Warren II run for 15 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
37.5%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 4
OPP 10
-1
37.5%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 11Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
37.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike Boone, broken up by Rodney ClemonsSimilar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
39.8%
Ryan Jones 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:0760% → 64%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-11
39.8%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 30 SMU Penalty, personal foul (Courtland Sutton) to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 21
OWN 15
+6
39.9%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+18
40.0%
Xavier Jones run for 18 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
39.2%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+9
39.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 9 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
38.8%
Braeden West run for 9 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+4
38.6%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
38.7%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to WEST, Braeden, PENALTY CIN pass interference (MINOR, Jaylyin) 15 yards to the CIN23, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
38.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-3
38.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+16
38.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 16 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
38.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
35.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4537% → 46%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
37.4%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
37.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 11 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
37.9%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
38.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 4 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
38.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 5 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
38.5%
Hayden Moore run for 3 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
39.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 20 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
39.7%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
39.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 11 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
45.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 18 yds for a TD, (Ryan Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0057% → 58%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
43.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
42.9%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
41.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 5 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+49
41.8%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Linden Stephens return for 39 yds to the CINCINNATI 13 CINCINNATI Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:5146% → 53%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
45.9%
Michael Warren II run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
46.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JJ Pinckney for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-5
45.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
45.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 8
OWN 0
+15
42.4%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete to ROLLINS, Jerron, PENALTY SMU offside (SCOTT, Delontae) 5 yards to the SMU32, NO PLAY, PENALTY SMU personal foul (JEANLYS, W.) 15 yards to the SMU17, 1ST DOWN CIN.Similar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
46.4%
Hayden Moore run for 7 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+5
46.4%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
46.4%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the SMU 4Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
46.4%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the SMU 3Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
45.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas Geddis, broken up by Rodney ClemonsSimilar
Q2 6:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
52.9%
Ryan Jones 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2050% → 62%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
49.7%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
49.7%
Xavier Jones run for 10 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
48.9%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
47.9%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+33
47.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 33 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
46.3%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
46.3%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
37.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 5 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:4342% → 41%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
42.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
41.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Javan Hawes for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 22Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
41.5%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+8
41.1%
James Smith punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 29 , Trey Quinn returns for 8 yds to the SMU 30 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
40.7%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
39.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey Quinn, broken up by Kevin MouhonSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+8
40.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 8 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
38.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
39.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Mikial OnuSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
40.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 10
OWN 42
-5
41.7%
SMU Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 15
OWN 37
+13
42.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 45 yds , Mike Boone returns for 13 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11MISSED FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:4844% → 38%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
43.7%
Mike Boone run for 10 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
45.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+45
44.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 45 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-12
47.4%
Hayden Moore sacked by Kyran Mitchell for a loss of 12 yards to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 22
OPP 26
-13
45.1%
Hayden Moore sacked by Tyeson Neals and Justin Lawler for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 35
OPP 39
+9
39.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 9 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 26
OPP 30
+47
38.0%
Ryan Jones 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
39.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13MISSED FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 7:1559% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
41.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 8 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+1
40.4%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
41.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
40.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 2 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
40.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 2 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
41.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 7 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
39.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+23
39.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 23 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
37.8%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
37.4%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
37.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
37.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+2
36.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 24
-9
37.8%
Ben Hicks sacked by Jaylyin Minor for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+50
43.5%
Josh Williams 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14FUMBLE
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:0044% → 50%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
44.3%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
44.1%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+12
45.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 12 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
48.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
47.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 8 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
47.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
48.7%
Michael Warren II run for 20 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-6
50.0%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 22 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by SMU RC CoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 4:2957% → 56%
Q3 4:29
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+11
43.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 11 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
40.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
41.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+10
41.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 10 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
42.3%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
41.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for no gain to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
38.4%
Ben Hicks sacked by Lyndon Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+3
41.7%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 44
0
42.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
44.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 41 yds, downed at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
43.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-2
43.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+12
41.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 12 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+9
42.7%
Hayden Moore run for 9 yds to the Cincy 37 SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+4
47.5%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
47.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
45.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+6
42.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JJ Pinckney for 6 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 5
OWN 46
-5
42.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Perry Young) to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
41.1%
James Smith punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 4:0060% → 92%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+22
40.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 22 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
36.5%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+9
36.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 9 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
35.3%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+7
36.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 7 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+6
35.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 6 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
33.6%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+25
7.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 25 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0414% → 56%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.4%
Hayden Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
13.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 8 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
14.8%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
16.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 10 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
17.5%
Hayden Moore run for 21 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
19.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-5
19.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 14
OPP 32
0
17.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to JJ PinckneySimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 14
OPP 32
+11
15.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 11 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+21
58.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 21 yds for a TD, (Hayden Moore pass to Devin Gray for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
56.0%
SMU Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2352% → 52%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.5%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
48.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 7 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
46.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
48.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Devin Gray at the Cincy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20END OF GAME
11 plays · 0 yds · 15:5345% → 74%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
54.6%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
54.0%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
40.5%
Ben Hicks run for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 34 Ben Hicks fumbled, recovered by SMU Ben HicksSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 19
OPP 34
0
43.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 19
OPP 34
-7
47.1%
Ben Hicks sacked by Marquise Copeland for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 41Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 26
OPP 41
+28
52.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 28 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
40.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
40.5%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
43.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
26.1%
Josh Williams 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0041% → 38%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
41.3%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the SMU 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+3
41.3%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the SMU 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
37.8%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Kyran Mitchell return for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:22
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 21 yds for a TD, (Hayden Moore pass to Devin Gray for Two-Point Conversion)
+47.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-37.8
TD · Q4 6:26
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 25 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
-25.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com