Try the model
UCF

UCF 31 at Navy 21

NAVY
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:32 · Owen White punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 43 , Mike Hughes returns for 11 yds to the Navy 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Pregame prior−25.4Home team on offense−2.3Garbage-time factor−0.9Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:46: Zach Abey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:23: Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 75 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +14.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:08: Adrian Killins Jr. run for 79 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +16.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:50: Anthony Gargiulo run for 7 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +23.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 3:30: Otis Anderson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +14.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 6UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:48NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:37UCF 4th & 28 at UCF 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:32NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 20, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:23UCF 4th & 1 at NAVY 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:37UCF 4th & 13 at NAVY 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:08NAVY 4th & 3 at UCF 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−2.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:41UCF 4th & 16 at NAVY 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−3.0
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−8.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:30NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 38, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:21UCF 4th & 5 at NAVY 39, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−0.7
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:29NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 29, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:48UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:46NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:46UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:23NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:08UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:50NAVY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:30UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:1279% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
21.0%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (McKenzie Milton) to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+3
21.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
21.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+35
21.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 35 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
21.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+11
21.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 11 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
21.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
21.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+9
21.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
21.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
21.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
21.8%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
21.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+6
21.7%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
21.7%
Owen White punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
22.2%
Taj McGowan run for 17 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
22.0%
Taj McGowan run for 17 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
21.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-2
21.9%
Taj McGowan run for 8 yds to the Navy 27 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (Tre'Quan Smith) to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-10
21.9%
SMITH, Tre'Quan rush for 1 yard to the NAVY36 (WOOTEN, Tyris), PENALTY UCF illegal block (DAVIS, Gabriel) 10 yards to the NAVY47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 22
OPP 47
-1
22.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 23
OPP 48
-5
22.2%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Josh Webb for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 28
OWN 47
0
22.4%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 42 yds, downed at the Navy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0723% → 23%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
22.8%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 11Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+1
22.8%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Navy 12Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+8
22.6%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+11
22.5%
Owen White punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 43 , Mike Hughes returns for 11 yds to the Navy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
22.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 18 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
22.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 13 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
22.0%
Otis Anderson run for 9 yds to the Navy 3Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 1
OPP 3
-1
22.0%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 4Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
22.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the Navy 3Similar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 1
OPP 3
0
22.4%
Taj McGowan run for no gain to the Navy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1423% → 23%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
22.9%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+10
22.9%
Zach Abey run for 10 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
23.1%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-8
23.2%
Darryl Bonner run for 2 yds to the Navy 24 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (Craig Scott) to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+2
23.4%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+8
23.0%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
22.8%
Owen White punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
23.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 11 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
22.6%
KILLINS, JR., Adrian rush for 4 yards to the 50 yardline (SAYLES, Tyler), PENALTY UCF illegal formation 5 yards to the UCF41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+20
23.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 20 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
22.4%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-10
22.2%
Team run for a loss of 10 yards to the Navy 45Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+3
23.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 3 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
23.9%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 6:2524% → 38%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
23.8%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+4
24.0%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+7
23.5%
Darryl Bonner run for 7 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
24.1%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
24.1%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+7
23.8%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
24.5%
Mike Martin run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
24.4%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Mike Martin, broken up by Joey ConnorsSimilar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+40
24.0%
Zach Abey pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 40 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
26.6%
Zach Abey run for 12 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
26.6%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
38.3%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:0071% → 80%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
28.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+7
28.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 7 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-5
29.4%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+15
29.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 15 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
28.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 2 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
20.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10INT
13 plays · 36 yds · 2:0324% → 26%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
24.1%
Zach Abey run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
24.5%
Zach Abey run for 14 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
26.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
26.9%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+8
27.0%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
27.2%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 2
OPP 28
-2
28.4%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 4
OPP 30
-9
27.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the UCF 29 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyler Carmona) to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+9
25.7%
Zach Abey pass intercepted Kyle Gibson return for 9 yds to the UCF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11MISSED FG
6 plays · 61 yds · 0:3177% → 80%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+41
23.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 41 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
20.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
20.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick Snelson, broken up by Brandon JonesSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+20
21.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 20 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+45
19.7%
Matthew Wright 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:3725% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
24.8%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+3
24.9%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+2
24.6%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.0%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
39.6%
Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 75 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
24.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 79 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0025% → 27%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
25.1%
Mike Martin run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
26.6%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
25.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 11 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
27.1%
Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
26.9%
Mike Martin run for 6 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+3
27.8%
Garret Lewis run for 3 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
28.2%
Garret Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
27.9%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+4
27.7%
Garret Lewis run for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+2
26.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 4:1478% → 80%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
22.5%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
21.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 5 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+7
22.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 7 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
21.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
21.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+24
21.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 24 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
20.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+5
20.9%
NAVY Penalty, Defensive offside (Jarvis Polu) to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
20.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-8
20.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 7 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (Marlon Williams) to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 15
OPP 17
0
21.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 15
OPP 17
-1
22.0%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 16
OPP 18
+35
19.7%
Matthew Wright 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5118% → 46%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
18.4%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
19.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
19.1%
Garret Lewis run for 7 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
20.1%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
19.7%
Garret Lewis run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+30
20.3%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 30 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
22.2%
Darryl Bonner run for 4 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+6
22.2%
Garret Lewis run for 6 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
22.2%
Mike Martin run for 3 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
45.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 7 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17INT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0065% → 69%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
33.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 14 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
31.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
30.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
31.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+45
31.1%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Micah Thomas return for 30 yds to the Navy 14 NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Justin Norton) to the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:5438% → 39%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
38.4%
Garret Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+1
36.3%
Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+12
35.0%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 12 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
40.1%
Mike Martin run for 1 yd to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+4
40.1%
Garret Lewis run for 4 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+2
38.6%
Darryl Bonner run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 46 Darryl Bonner fumbled, forced by Brandon Moore, recovered by UCF Brandon Moore , return for 2 yds to the UCF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 3:3776% → 93%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
23.8%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 6
50
+26
23.4%
Otis Anderson run for 26 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
21.3%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
21.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+6
22.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 6 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
21.3%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the Navy 10Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
6.6%
Otis Anderson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
8.3%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Darryl BonnerSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
8.2%
Garret Lewis run for 3 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
8.5%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Tyler CarmonaSimilar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+6
7.7%
Garret Lewis run for 6 yds to the Navy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:1394% → 94%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
5.6%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
5.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-1
5.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
5.6%
UCF Penalty, delay of game ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
5.6%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
2.7%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 17 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
2.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
2.7%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Malcolm PerrySimilar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
2.6%
Garret Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+12
2.5%
Garret Lewis pass intercepted Brandon Moore return for 2 yds to the UCF 31 UCF Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
4.1%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 15
OWN 34
-5
4.9%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:50
Anthony Gargiulo run for 7 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
+23.5
TD · Q3 12:08
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 79 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q3 12:23
Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 75 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
+14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com