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MEM

Memphis 42 at Houston 38

HOU
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2017 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:12 · Dane Roy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by John Williams at the Memph 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense+14.8Garbage-time factor+5.1Score differential+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Pregame prior−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:57: Tony Pollard 93 Yd Kickoff Return (Riley Patterson Kick) — MEM win probability +13.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:04: Patrick Taylor Jr. 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick) — MEM win probability +22.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 6:44: Steven Dunbar 8 Yd pass from Kyle Postma (Caden Novikoff Kick) — HOU win probability +14.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:14: Patrick Taylor Jr. 5 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick) — MEM win probability +29.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:28: Sean Dykes 21 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Riley Patterson Kick) — MEM win probability +56.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 14:35MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:47HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:12MEM 4th & 7 at HOU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    45.4%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:25HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:56MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:58HOU 4th & 11 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:54MEM 4th & 17 at HOU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:49MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:01HOU 4th & 4 at MEM 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%−1.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:27MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:43HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 26, up 14
    Close callPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:17HOU 4th & 7 at MEM 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−3.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:12HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 28, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:30HOU 4th & 1 at MEM 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    76.3%−2.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−9.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:00HOU 4th & 2 at MEM 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−1.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−8.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:17HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 41, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.2 ptsPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%−5.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:42MEM 4th & 17 at MEM 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−2.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 3:29HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:55HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:42MEM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:11HOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:57MEM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:31HOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:30MEM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:04MEM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:44HOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.7
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:14MEM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.3%−2.4
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:28MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1553% → 53%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
47.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
47.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q1 14:41
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
47.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q1 14:35
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
47.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3547% → 48%
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
47.2%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
47.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 2 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
47.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 5 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
47.6%
Dane Roy punt for 49 yds, downed at the Memph 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:2152% → 52%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
47.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+14
47.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 14 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
47.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 7 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+9
47.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 9 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
47.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 16 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
47.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 8 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 2
OPP 33
0
47.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 2
OPP 33
-5
47.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Riley Ferguson) to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
47.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
47.9%
Nick Jacobs punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the Houst 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:3548% → 48%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
48.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 12 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
48.3%
Kyle Postma run for 3 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+1
48.3%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 22Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+5
48.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 5 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
48.1%
Dane Roy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by John Williams at the Memph 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0352% → 52%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
48.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+1
48.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 28Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+10
48.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
48.5%
Spencer Smith punt for 39 yds, downed at the Houst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:4249% → 49%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
48.8%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Duke Catalon for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+31
48.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Duke Catalon for 31 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
50.0%
Kyle Postma run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 11
50
0
49.7%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 11
50
0
49.3%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to D'Eriq KingSimilar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 11
50
0
48.7%
Dane Roy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by John Williams at the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:1051% → 51%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
49.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+15
49.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 15 yds Anthony Miller fumbled, forced by D'Juan Hines, recovered by Houst Ed OliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:0751% → 55%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
50.6%
D'Eriq King run for 6 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+3
50.8%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 3 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+7
50.4%
Dillon Birden run for 7 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.3%
Dillon Birden 1 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:0646% → 45%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
53.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 5 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+14
53.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 14 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
53.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sean Dykes for 20 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
52.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to John WilliamsSimilar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
52.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Darrell HendersonSimilar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 10
OPP 32
-7
53.4%
Riley Ferguson sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 0:54
4TH & 17
OPP 39
0
55.3%
Nick Jacobs punt for 33 yds, downed at the Houst 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
16 plays · 94 yds · 5:4755% → 70%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
55.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to John Leday for 9 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+10
55.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 10 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.8%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
56.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to John Leday for 1 yd to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+23
55.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 23 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
57.9%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
58.2%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+2
58.0%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
58.9%
Duke Catalon run for 16 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
59.4%
Kyle Postma run for 3 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
59.8%
Dillon Birden run for 5 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+8
60.3%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 8 yds to the Memph 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
61.2%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Memph 5Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
61.5%
Dillon Birden run for 1 yd to the Memph 4Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
69.8%
Duke Catalon 4 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4732% → 30%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
67.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
67.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
67.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-6
68.3%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Ed Oliver for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
69.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4271% → 71%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
71.1%
Postma, Kyle pass incomplete, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Oliver, Marcus) 10 yards to the HOUSTON44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+5
70.8%
Dillon Birden run for 5 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+11
71.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 11 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
72.1%
Dillon Birden run for no gain to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
71.4%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2330% → 28%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
70.3%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+14
71.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 14 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-2
70.2%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
71.7%
Nick Jacobs punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3173% → 74%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
73.1%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-1
73.3%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+6
73.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 6 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
73.7%
Dane Roy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by John Williams at the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:3626% → 27%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
73.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 12 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
73.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
74.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 7 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+3
72.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
72.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 12 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
72.6%
Riley Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
71.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+58
72.8%
Riley Ferguson pass intercepted Garrett Davis return for 58 yds to the Memph 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3979% → 81%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
78.7%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
78.9%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
78.4%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
80.8%
Caden Novikoff 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0821% → 21%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
78.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 13 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
78.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 16 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+52
78.9%
Riley Patterson 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3380% → 79%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.4%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
80.6%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
80.0%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
79.2%
Dane Roy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by John Williams at the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:1820% → 33%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
80.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 4 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
80.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+15
81.3%
Ferguson, Riley pass incomplete, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference 15 yards to the HOUSTON43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
80.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+9
81.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 9 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+6
80.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 6 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+28
80.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 28 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
80.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q3 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. 2 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:1373% → 91%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
72.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Dillon Birden for 13 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
73.2%
Dillon Birden run for no gain to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
73.3%
Dillon Birden run for 15 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
75.2%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 8
50
0
75.6%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 8
50
+11
74.9%
Kyle Postma pass complete to John Leday for 11 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
76.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 24 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
77.3%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Memph 15Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
78.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+9
77.3%
Kyle Postma run for 9 yds to the Memph 6Similar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+4
76.7%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Memph 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
78.9%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Memph 1Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.6%
Duke Catalon 1 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0377% → 94%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
77.3%
Dillon Birden run for 40 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
80.1%
D'Eriq King run for 9 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+1
80.3%
Dillon Birden run for 1 yd to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
80.6%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-10
81.0%
Catalon, Duke rush for 7 yards to the MEMPHIS13, PENALTY HOUSTON holding 10 yards to the MEMPHIS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
80.4%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 15
OPP 30
-15
79.4%
Postma, Kyle pass complete to Bonner, Linell for 5 yards to the MEMPHIS25, PENALTY HOUSTON personal foul 15 yards to the MEMPHIS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 30
OPP 45
+28
79.3%
Kyle Postma run for 28 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+12
82.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 12 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
84.1%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Memph 2Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.8%
Duke Catalon 1 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 0:478% → 20%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+36
91.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 36 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
91.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 17 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
79.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. 9 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:1584% → 87%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.9%
Dillon Birden run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
83.3%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+38
82.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Courtney Lark for 38 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
86.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 11 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-10
87.1%
Kyle Postma sacked by Tito Windham for a loss of 10 yards to the Memph 36 Kyle Postma fumbled, forced by Tito Windham, recovered by Memph John Tate , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 1:3616% → 41%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
84.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+25
84.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 25 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
82.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to John WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
82.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 9 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+1
82.7%
Riley Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
81.5%
Ferguson, Riley pass incomplete to Miller, Anthony, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Myres, Alexander) 15 yards to the HOUSTON14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
81.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds to the Houst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
81.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
81.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Garrett Davis) to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 3:5172% → 92%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
71.6%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 15 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
72.3%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 12 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
74.6%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+19
73.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 19 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
76.9%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
77.1%
D'Eriq King run for 4 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+7
75.6%
Duke Catalon run for 7 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
77.4%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+4
77.6%
Dillon Birden run for 4 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+9
76.0%
Dillon Birden run for 9 yds to the Memph 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
77.8%
Dillon Birden run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 7Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
77.9%
Kyle Postma run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 8Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
92.0%
Steven Dunbar 8 Yd pass from Kyle Postma (Caden Novikoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:208% → 40%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
91.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
92.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 9 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+6
91.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 6 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+57
89.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 52 yds to the HOUSTON 10 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Terrell Williams) to the Houst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
60.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. 5 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1378% → 81%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
78.3%
Dillon Birden run for 9 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
80.9%
Dillon Birden run for no gain to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
81.4%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+20
81.4%
Dane Roy punt for 59 yds , John Williams returns for 20 yds to the Memph 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 29TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:4230% → 92%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+24
72.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 24 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
67.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
67.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
68.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 5 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+20
68.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 20 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
64.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Joey MagnificoSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
8.2%
Sean Dykes 21 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Riley Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:2127% → 23%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
26.8%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 3 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+18
23.0%
Kyle Postma run for 18 yds to the Memph 47 Kyle Postma fumbled, forced by Terrell Carter, recovered by Memph Jonathan CookSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 31PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:1391% → 93%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
9.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-7
5.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 17
OWN 40
0
6.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
6.8%
Spencer Smith punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the Houst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 32INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:1216% → 16%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
16.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 17 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
17.8%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
15.8%
Kyle Postma pass intercepted Terrell Carter return for 7 yds to the Memph 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
4.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:28
Sean Dykes 21 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Riley Patterson Kick)
-56.3
TD · Q4 5:14
Patrick Taylor Jr. 5 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)
-29.4
TD · Q4 11:04
Patrick Taylor Jr. 1 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)
-22.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com