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NAVY

Navy 27 at Memphis 30

MEM
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDSAFETYTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+4.6MEM 66.2%Riley Patterson 30 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 10 · Q2 0:36
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:36 · Riley Patterson 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Pregame prior+9.6Home team on offense+2.7Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:15: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 10 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +9.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:30: Zach Abey run for 8 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +14.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:17: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 8 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +16.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:25: Zach Abey run for 1 yd for a TD MEMPHIS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (D. Bonner Run For Two-point Conversion) — NAVY win probability +29.3 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 3:25: Timeout MEMPHIS, clock 03:25 — MEM win probability +7.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:21NAVY 4th & 5 at MEM 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:49NAVY 4th & 3 at MEM 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:29MEM 4th & 8 at NAVY 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:32MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:51NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:33MEM 4th & 9 at NAVY 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:36MEM 4th & 10 at NAVY 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−6.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:15NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:42NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 39, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.1%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:15MEM 4th & 7 at NAVY 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−12.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:15NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:08MEM 4th & 10 at NAVY 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    77.9%−7.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:08NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:58MEM 4th & 6 at NAVY 44, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−4.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:54MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:29NAVY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:15MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:30NAVY Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:17MEM Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:25NAVY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.7%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3931% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
68.8%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Memph 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
68.8%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Malcolm PerrySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
68.8%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Memph 5Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
68.4%
Bennett Moehring 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2769% → 69%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
68.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 32 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
68.7%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+9
68.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 9 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+7
68.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sean Dykes for 7 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
68.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 7 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+17
68.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sean Dykes for 17 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
69.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 5 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
17 plays · 70 yds · 8:2031% → 36%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
68.7%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+6
68.5%
Chris High run for 6 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
68.5%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 34 Zach Abey fumbled,Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+11
68.8%
John Brown III run for 11 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+8
68.5%
Darryl Bonner run for 8 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
68.3%
Darryl Bonner run for 1 yd to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+4
68.4%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+2
68.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+6
68.6%
Darryl Bonner run for 6 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
68.2%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
68.2%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+4
68.3%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
68.2%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+13
68.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 13 yds to the Memph 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
68.2%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.8%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0065% → 66%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
65.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 16 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
66.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 1
50
+10
66.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 10 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
66.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
66.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
66.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+2
65.7%
Riley Ferguson run for 2 yds to the Navy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:4036% → 37%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
64.3%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+18
63.7%
Darryl Bonner run for 18 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
62.9%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+8
62.9%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the Memph 32 Zach Abey fumbled, forced by Bryce Huff, recovered by Memph Terrell CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
64.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 13 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
65.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
65.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Joey MagnificoSimilar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
65.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony Pollard, broken up by Micah FarrarSimilar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
63.8%
Nick Jacobs punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
16 plays · 40 yds · 6:4036% → 40%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
63.6%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+2
63.3%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+3
63.8%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
63.2%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
63.3%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
63.3%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
62.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+3
62.1%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
59.5%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+1
58.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
59.3%
Darryl Bonner run for no gain to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 5
OWN 48
+4
60.3%
Owen White punt for 43 yds , John Williams returns for 4 yds to the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8MISSED FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 4:1261% → 60%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
60.7%
Tony Pollard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 12Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+7
60.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 7 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
60.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 4
OWN 19
+15
59.3%
SMITH, Spencer punt 45 yards to the NAVY36, fair catch by SCOTT, Craig, PENALTY NAVY roughing the kicker (MCCOY, Kevin) 15 yards to the MEM34, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
61.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
61.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+28
60.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 28 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
63.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 2 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+9
64.8%
Riley Ferguson run for 9 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
64.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 5 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-7
64.8%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Nizaire Cromartie for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 27 MEMPHIS Penalty, intentional grounding (Riley Ferguson) to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+3
62.8%
Riley Ferguson run for 3 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
60.1%
Riley Patterson 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0042% → 43%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
58.2%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-2
57.2%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 28 Zach Abey fumbled, recovered by Memph Austin HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:2564% → 66%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
63.6%
FERGUSON, Riley pass incomplete to MILLER, Anthony, PENALTY NAVY roughing passer declined, PENALTY NAVY pass interference (WILLIAMS, Sean) 15 yards to the NAVY13, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
63.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
63.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony Pollard, broken up by Jarid RyanSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
61.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
66.2%
Riley Patterson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11MISSED FG
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:3141% → 43%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
59.4%
Zach Abey pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 20 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
57.1%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
55.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+50
57.0%
Bennett Moehring 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.5%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Darryl BonnerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.7%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Tyler Carmona) to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+26
61.0%
Zach Abey pass intercepted Austin Hall return for 26 yds to the Navy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:2768% → 77%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
67.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
77.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 10 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
74.0%
Darryl Bonner run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
74.4%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+3
75.2%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 14:15
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
75.5%
Owen White punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15SF
3 plays · -13 yds · 0:2475% → 70%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
75.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Elijah MerchantSimilar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
74.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 10
OWN 13
-13
70.2%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Josh Webb for a loss of 13 yards for a SAFETY MEMPHIS Penalty, intentional grounding (Riley Ferguson) to the Memph 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:1231% → 50%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
69.2%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
68.9%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+7
70.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q3 11:42
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+2
69.3%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
67.7%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+7
66.8%
Chris High run for 7 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
66.1%
Zach Abey run for 9 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+25
65.7%
Zach Abey run for 25 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
64.7%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the Memph 8Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
49.9%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:1557% → 67%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
56.7%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 23Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
56.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 2 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+21
54.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 21 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
60.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 16 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
61.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 10 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
62.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 3 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
62.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Joey MagnificoSimilar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
60.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Joey Magnifico, broken up by Juan HaileySimilar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
67.3%
Riley Patterson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
64.8%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+1
65.5%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
66.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 15 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
62.2%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+2
63.8%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+1
64.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
66.4%
Owen White punt for 53 yds, downed at the Memph 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
10 plays · 99 yds · 2:5765% → 88%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+10
64.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 10 yds to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
65.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Trevon Tate) to the Memph 6Similar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+13
64.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sean Dykes for 13 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+13
65.7%
Darrell Henderson run for 13 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
66.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 8 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (D.J. Palmore) to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
69.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 12 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
70.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 20 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
70.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 5 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
70.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Darrell HendersonSimilar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
87.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 8 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
84.2%
Darryl Bonner run for 1 yd to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
84.4%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 24 Zach Abey fumbled, forced by Tim Hart, recovered by Memph Curtis AkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1789% → 88%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
88.7%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-5
88.6%
FERGUSON, Riley pass complete to MAGNIFICO, Joey for 13 yards to the NAVY12 (WILLIAMS, Sean), PENALTY MEM ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the NAVY30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+6
88.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to John Williams for 6 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
87.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
88.1%
Riley Patterson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0012% → 10%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
87.9%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
88.9%
Zach Abey sacked by Shareef White and Genard Avery for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+5
89.7%
Owen White punt for 54 yds , John Williams returns for 5 yds to the Memph 25 MEMPHIS Penalty, illegal block (Christian Johnson) to the Memph 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 61 yds · 0:0091% → 92%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
90.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
90.7%
FERGUSON, Riley pass complete to COXIE, Damonte for 11 yards to the MEM32 (WOOTEN, Tyris), PENALTY MEM ineligible downfield on pass (TATE, Trevon) 5 yards to the MEM16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+33
90.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 33 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
91.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 13 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
91.8%
Tony Pollard run for 6 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+10
91.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 10 yds to the Navy 18 Darrell Henderson fumbled, forced by D.J. Palmore, recovered by Navy Sean WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 3:098% → 38%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
92.0%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Tyler CarmonaSimilar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
92.0%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+18
92.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 18 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
90.5%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+28
90.4%
Zach Abey run for 28 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
88.9%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
92.0%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Malcolm Perry, broken up by Austin HallSimilar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+20
92.8%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 11 yds to the Memph 18 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, face mask (9 yards) (Tito Windham) to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
91.6%
Chris High run for 8 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
91.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, ( Yards) to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.8%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd for a TD MEMPHIS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (D. Bonner Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:2780% → 88%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
79.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 12 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Juan Hailey) to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
83.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
83.4%
Tony Pollard run for no gain to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
89.0%
Riley Ferguson run for no gain to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
88.0%
Nick Jacobs punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 26INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
85.4%
Zach Abey pass intercepted Austin Hall return for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0091% → 89%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
91.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-2
90.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 14
OPP 37
-2
88.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:25
Zach Abey run for 1 yd for a TD MEMPHIS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (D. Bonner Run For Two-point Conversion)
-29.3
TD · Q4 13:17
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 8 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)
+16.6
TD · Q3 7:30
Zach Abey run for 8 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com