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HOU

Houston 17 at Tulsa 45

TLSA
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:56 · Kyle Postma run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Pregame prior−32.4Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 3:51: Redford Jones 23 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +11.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:48: Chad President run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +20.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:00: D'Angelo Brewer run for 46 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +17.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:32: Dillon Birden run for 24 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +13.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:52: Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 70 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +15.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:00HOU 4th & 6 at TLSA 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    79.4%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:58TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:56HOU 4th & 3 at TLSA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    78.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 10:56HOU 4th & 2 at TLSA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 7:32TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:49HOU 4th & 9 at TLSA 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:49TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:34HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00HOU 4th & 20 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−2.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:51TLSA 4th & 6 at HOU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−12.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:48HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−2.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:45HOU 4th & 3 at TLSA 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−1.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:10TLSA 4th & 1 at HOU 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 11:58HOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:34TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:48TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:00TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:32HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:52TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:35TLSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:24TLSA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.4%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
16.4%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
16.4%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+9
16.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 47 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+23
16.8%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 23 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
16.8%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Duke CatalonSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
16.8%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
16.8%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Alex Leslie, broken up by McKinley Whitfield HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 14:00
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
16.8%
Dane Roy punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
17.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+16
17.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
17.4%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 15
OWN 25
-5
17.4%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+3
17.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+7
17.4%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+5
17.3%
SKIPPER, L. pass incomplete to CARTER, N., PENALTY HOU offside defense 5 yards to the TLS35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
17.4%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Alexander MyresSimilar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
17.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 30 yds, downed at the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
18.3%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
18.2%
Dillon Birden run for 10 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
18.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 6 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
18.0%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-2
18.1%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+10
18.2%
Kyle Postma run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
18.1%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
18.0%
Dillon Birden run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
18.1%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Alex Leslie, broken up by McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 2
OPP 28
-4
18.2%
Kyle Postma run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
20.1%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
20.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-2
20.0%
Luke Skipper run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
19.7%
Thomas Bennett punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 5:3480% → 78%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
20.5%
Duke Catalon run for 7 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+3
20.2%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
20.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Keith Corbin for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
50
+9
20.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 9 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
19.9%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
20.0%
Kyle Postma run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+3
20.0%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+7
20.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Dillon Birden for 7 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
19.8%
Dillon Birden run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+7
19.8%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 7 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+11
20.0%
Duke Catalon run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
19.8%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
19.8%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to D'Eriq KingSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
20.0%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
20.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q1 0:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
22.3%
Caden Novikoff 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:4922% → 22%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
22.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
22.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
23.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
23.3%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Nick ThurmanSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
22.9%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keenen Johnson, broken up by Terrell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
22.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2777% → 81%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
22.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 15 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
22.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
22.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+36
21.8%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 36 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
21.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 2 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+10
21.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 10 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.0%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
18.9%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
18.8%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Nigel Carter for 2 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
18.8%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+20
18.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Josh Stewart for 20 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
19.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
19.5%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 5 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-7
19.4%
Luke Skipper sacked by Nick Thurman and Ed Oliver for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+1
18.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 45 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 1 yd to the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10INT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
20.4%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
20.5%
Kyle Postma run for no gain to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+12
20.9%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 12 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
20.1%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+5
20.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Duke Catalon for 5 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+15
20.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 15 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
19.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to John Leday for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+51
19.6%
Kyle Postma pass intercepted McKinley Whitfield return for 51 yds to the TULSA 2 HOUSTON Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:0821% → 29%
Q2 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
21.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
21.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.2%
Chad President run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.3%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Steven Dunbar, broken up by Payton PrinceSimilar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
26.4%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 7 yds to the Houst 32 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
27.3%
Dane Roy punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13INT
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+26
29.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 11 yds to the TULSA 48 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
31.0%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Garrett DavisSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
30.9%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 3 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
29.8%
Luke Skipper pass intercepted, touchback. Jeremy Winchester return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
27.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 4 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
26.9%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Dillon BirdenSimilar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+14
27.9%
Kyle Postma run for 14 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
25.9%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+7
27.4%
Duke Catalon run for 7 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+7
27.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 7 yds to the Houst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.4%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Keith Corbin, broken up by Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.6%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
27.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 11 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
25.9%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+15
25.8%
POSTMA, Kyle pass incomplete to DUNBAR, Steven, PENALTY TLS pass interference (THOMAS, K.) 15 yards to the TLS40, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-9
25.4%
Kyle Postma sacked by Jeremy Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+3
26.4%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 46
-4
27.3%
Kyle Postma sacked by Petera Wilson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 20
50
0
28.6%
Dane Roy punt for 49 yds, downed at the Tulsa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16FG
22 plays · 93 yds · 7:3029% → 44%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
29.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+10
29.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Josh Stewart for 10 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
29.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+3
29.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+4
28.5%
Luke Skipper run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
30.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
31.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
33.1%
Luke Skipper run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
33.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 17 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
34.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 9 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-5
34.8%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+11
34.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 11 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
34.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
34.8%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keenen Johnson, broken up by Jeremy WinchesterSimilar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+8
33.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
34.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Houst 5Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 5
OWN 0
+1
29.8%
BREWER, D. rush for no gain to the HOU5 (HINES, D'Juan;WILLIAMS, Terre), PENALTY HOU offside defense 3 yards to the HOU2, NO PLAY, PENALTY HOU personal foul 1 yards to the HOU1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
34.8%
BROOKS, S. rush for no gain to the HOU1 (EGBULE, Emeke), PENALTY TLS holding 10 yards to the HOU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
34.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Houst 10Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
33.2%
Chad President run for 4 yds to the Houst 6Similar
Q3 3:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
44.2%
Redford Jones 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.8%
D'Eriq King run for no gain to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+30
39.1%
Kyle Postma pass intercepted Keidrien Wadley return for 37 yds to the TULSA 38 HOUSTON Penalty, personal foul (-7 Yards) to the Houst 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2249% → 69%
Q3 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
49.1%
Chad President run for 4 yds to the Houst 2Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.4%
Chad President run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.9%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
60.9%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
62.4%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Linell Bonner, broken up by McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
63.5%
Dane Roy punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keidrien Wadley at the Tulsa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:0270% → 89%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
70.4%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-5
70.9%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+7
69.9%
Luke Skipper run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+6
69.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
71.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
88.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 46 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:2016% → 33%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
83.9%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 4 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+9
83.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 9 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.9%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to D'Eriq KingSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
83.2%
Dillon Birden run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
50
+8
82.5%
Dillon Birden run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+5
81.6%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
82.5%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+12
82.4%
Duke Catalon run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
80.5%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
67.0%
Dillon Birden run for 24 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:3579% → 93%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
78.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
78.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+3
77.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
92.8%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 70 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 50 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
89.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Romello Brooker for 7 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+2
88.2%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+17
88.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 17 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
87.9%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Steven Dunbar, broken up by Allie Green IVSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
87.8%
Dillon Birden run for 4 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+11
87.9%
Dillon Birden run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
87.7%
Dillon Birden run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-4
87.4%
Kyle Postma run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+8
88.0%
Duke Catalon run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+2
88.3%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
16 plays · 68 yds · 5:4895% → 100%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
95.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+1
95.0%
Luke Skipper run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+7
95.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
95.3%
Luke Skipper run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+2
95.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+21
97.4%
Chad President run for 21 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
97.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 20 yds to the Houst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
98.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+3
98.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Houst 9Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+2
98.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Houst 7Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+2
98.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Houst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
100.0%
Petera Wilson Jr. 3 Yd Fumble Return (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Steven Dunbar, broken up by Akayleb EvansSimilar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+26
100.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 26 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
100.0%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:48
Chad President run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+20.2
TD · Q3 0:00
D'Angelo Brewer run for 46 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+17.6
TD · Q4 9:52
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 70 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com