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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreTLSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:53 · Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulan 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:24: Dontrell Hilliard run for 23 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +3.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q1 7:45: Jonathan Banks pass complete to Terren Encalade for 62 yds for a TD TULSA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +4.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q1 7:09: Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 59 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +3.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:56: Stephon Huderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +10.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:35: Darius Bradwell run for 8 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +8.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 15:00TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snapGo for it33.1%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.1%average punt
- Q1 12:31TLSA 4th & 9 at TULN 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snapGo for it32.5%−<0.132% to convertField goal32.5%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call32.6%average punt
- Q1 7:04TULN 4th & 3 at TLSA 30, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.2%52% to convertField goal71.8%−0.456% to makePunt71.2%−0.9average punt
- Q2 13:35TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 46, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it10.1%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.3%average punt
- Q2 5:43TULN 4th & 2 at TLSA 17, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.9%56% to convertField goal94.5%−0.580% to makePunt91.7%−3.2average punt
- Q2 4:29TLSA 4th & 8 at TULN 31, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call4.5%54% to makePunt4.1%−0.4average punt
- Q3 15:00TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 31, up 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q3 10:07TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 26, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q3 8:24TULN 4th & 2 at TLSA 46, up 41Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%57% to convertField goal99.1%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call99.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:21TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 31, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q4 15:00TLSA 4th & 11 at TULN 38, down 34Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−<0.127% to convertField goal0.3%38% to makePunt0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:58TULN 4th & 11 at TLSA 22, up 34Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−0.125% to convertField goal100.0%72% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:31TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.4%97% to makeGo for two67.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:24TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.6%97% to makeGo for two70.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:45TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.7%97% to makeGo for two75.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:09TLSA Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.1%97% to makeGo for two28.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:56TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.9%97% to makeGo for two83.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:35TULN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:43TULN Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:05TULN Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:06TLSA Touchdown, down 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.3%97% to makeGo for two1.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:15TULN Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:21TLSA Touchdown, down 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%97% to makeGo for two0.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:18TULN Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:41TLSA Touchdown, down 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTLSADrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
66.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2TD3 plays · 52 yds · 1:0167% → 67%
TLSADrive 3PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.1%
Chad President pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 12 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+15
66.9%
Chad President pass incomplete for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Donnie Lewis Jr.) to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4TD6 plays · 85 yds · 2:4468% → 71%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
67.5%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Charles Jones II for 15 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+14
67.8%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Jacob Robertson Jr. for 14 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
67.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 22 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
TULNDrive 6TD1 play · 62 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
74.3%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Terren Encalade for 62 yds for a TD TULSA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD3 plays · 60 yds · 0:3626% → 29%
TULNDrive 8TD16 plays · 64 yds · 7:0872% → 82%
Q1 7:04
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
72.1%
[Shotgun], BANKS, J. rush quarterback draw for 5 yards to the TLN47 (FLANARY, G.), PENALTY TLS offside defense (STEVENSON, T.) 5 yards to the TLN47, 1ST DOWN TLN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 13
OPP 40
-5
72.0%
TULANE Penalty, false start (Jacob Robertson Jr.) to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+11
71.8%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 11 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+13
72.2%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Charles Jones II for 13 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
82.0%
Luke Skipper run for no gain to the Tulsa 23 Luke Skipper fumbled, recovered by Tulan Ade ArunaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10TD3 plays · 23 yds · 1:1183% → 91%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
82.6%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Darius Bradwell for 6 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 13:35
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
89.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulan 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12TD12 plays · 80 yds · 6:2592% → 96%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
50
+25
92.1%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Darius Bradwell for 25 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13MISSED FG7 plays · 35 yds · 1:074% → 5%
TULNDrive 14TD12 plays · 69 yds · 4:2496% → 98%
Q2 4:29
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+7
96.3%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Terren Encalade for 7 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.4%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Jacob Robertson Jr., broken up by Akayleb EvansSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
97.9%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Charles Jones II, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
98.4%
Jonathan Banks run for 13 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.1%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for no gain to the Tulsa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+58
98.5%
Zachary Block punt for 47 yds, downed at the TULANE 22 TULSA Penalty, UR (Chris Minter) to the Tulsa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD4 plays · 89 yds · 0:581% → 3%
TULNDrive 18TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5199% → 99%
Q3 12:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+22
98.9%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 7 yds to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, personal foul (Tyarise Stevenson) to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:07
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-3
99.2%
Luke Skipper sacked by Rae Juan Marbley for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+1
99.3%
Luke Skipper run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 46 yds , Jacob Robertson Jr. returns for no gain to the Tulan 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
TLSADrive 21TD5 plays · 94 yds · 1:520% → 1%
TULNDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23DOWNS4 plays · -3 yds · 1:150% → 0%
TULNDrive 24TD6 plays · 60 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.9%
Johnathan Brantley run for 34 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25TD7 plays · 72 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+36
99.9%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 36 yds to the Tulan 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 26DOWNS16 plays · 55 yds · 7:43100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27END OF GAME3 plays · 32 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:56
Stephon Huderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
+10
TD · Q2 13:35
Darius Bradwell run for 8 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
+8.4
TD · Q1 7:45
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Terren Encalade for 62 yds for a TD TULSA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Merek Glover KICK)
+4.3