Try the model
SMU

SMU 22 at Houston 35

HOU
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · TDECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:43 · Dane Roy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior+9.6Home team on offense+9.5Score differential+1.6Garbage-time factor+5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:45: D'Eriq King pass complete to Kyle Postma for 22 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +6.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:08: Kyle Postma pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 3 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +7.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:47: Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +16.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:16: Duke Catalon run for 52 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +14.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:24: Duke Catalon run for 16 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +11.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:54SMU 4th & 3 at HOU 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00HOU 4th & 10 at SMU 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:43SMU 4th & 5 at HOU 19, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:45SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:37SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 31, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00SMU 4th & 13 at HOU 13, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−6.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:00SMU 4th & 6 at HOU 45, down 9
    Close callPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:43HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 12, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:16SMU 4th & 1 at HOU 36, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%−3.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:46SMU 4th & 21 at HOU 29, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−3.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:24SMU 4th & 5 at HOU 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:16HOU 4th & 1 at SMU 46, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    93.1%−2.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:37HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 11, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−1.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:59HOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:58SMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:45HOU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:08HOU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:47SMU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:16HOU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:24HOU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:0627% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
72.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 9 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
72.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 3 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
72.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 9 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
72.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
72.9%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+27
72.9%
Xavier Jones run for 27 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
72.9%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
72.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for no gain to the Houst 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+8
72.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 8 yds to the Houst 6Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
71.6%
Josh Williams 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5572% → 73%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.8%
Kyle Postma pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.7%
Duke Catalon run for 12 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
71.9%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+9
71.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Duke Catalon for 9 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+10
72.0%
Kyle Postma run for 10 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
72.2%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
72.2%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+5
72.1%
Mulbah Car run for 5 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
72.2%
POSTMA, Kyle fade route pass incomplete to DUNBAR, Steven, PENALTY SMU pass interference (WYATT, Jordan) 15 yards to the SMU21, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
72.3%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+18
73.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 18 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:0128% → 33%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.3%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
72.3%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-10
72.4%
HICKS, Ben screen pass complete to SUTTON, C. for 6 yards to the SMU27 (OLIVER, Ed), PENALTY SMU personal foul (WILDS, Bryce) 10 yards to the SMU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+23
72.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 23 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
72.1%
Ben Hicks run for 3 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
72.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 15 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
71.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
71.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 2 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+6
71.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 6 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
71.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
71.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ke'Mon FreemanSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+29
71.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 20 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, personal foul (9 Yards) to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
71.3%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the Houst 5Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:5869% → 68%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
69.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 6 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+10
69.5%
Duke Catalon run for 10 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
69.6%
POSTMA, Kyle deep pass incomplete to KING, D'Eriq, PENALTY SMU pass interference (CLEMONS, Rodney) 15 yards to the SMU48, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
70.6%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 1 yd to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+3
70.5%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
70.0%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 48 Team fumbled, recovered by Houst Kyle Postma , return for no gain to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
68.4%
Dane Roy punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:3532% → 36%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
67.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 29 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
66.4%
Braeden West run for 9 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+2
66.3%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
66.1%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+4
65.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 4 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
65.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 2 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
65.9%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
66.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
64.0%
Josh Williams 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 2:5865% → 73%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
64.7%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
64.8%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to D'Eriq KingSimilar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+15
64.0%
POSTMA, Kyle fade route pass incomplete to DUNBAR, Steven, PENALTY SMU pass interference (WYATT, Jordan) 15 yards to the HOU42, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
66.1%
Kyle Postma run for 1 yd to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
66.0%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to D'Eriq King, broken up by Mikial OnuSimilar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+10
64.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 10 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
66.7%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
66.8%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Duke CatalonSimilar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+22
66.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 22 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
72.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Kyle Postma for 22 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
70.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Jeremy Winchester SMU Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
71.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 51 yds, downed at the Houst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
70.5%
Kyle Postma pass intercepted Mikial Onu return for no gain to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
69.2%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
69.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
70.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Ed OliverSimilar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
70.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 64 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 3:5970% → 80%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
69.9%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+45
69.8%
Duke Catalon run for 45 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
72.4%
Kyle Postma run for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
72.4%
Mulbah Car run for 5 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+12
72.0%
Mulbah Car run for 12 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
74.0%
Kyle Postma run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+5
74.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to John Leday for 5 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+16
71.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 16 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
72.8%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
80.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 3 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11MISSED FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 1:0822% → 20%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
77.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 21 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
76.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 6
50
-10
75.6%
HICKS, Ben sideline right pass incomplete to PROCHE, James, PENALTY SMU holding (WILDS, Bryce) 10 yards to the SMU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+20
77.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 20 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
75.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 4 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+30
76.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 30 yds to the Houst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
75.6%
HICKS, Ben fade route pass incomplete to SUTTON, C., PENALTY SMU pass interference (SUTTON, C.) 15 yards to the HOU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 21
0
76.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+8
77.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 8 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
78.2%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
79.6%
Josh Williams 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12INT
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:0078% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Keith Corbin for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
79.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 4 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
79.4%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to D'Eriq KingSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
79.1%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+10
78.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 10 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
79.7%
Mulbah Car run for 13 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
79.9%
Kyle Postma pass complete to John Leday for 12 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
80.1%
Kyle Postma pass intercepted, touchback. Christian Davis return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
79.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 13 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
78.4%
Xavier Jones run for 18 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
76.9%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
76.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 5 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-5
76.7%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
77.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
78.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the Houst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
80.9%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 10Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+2
80.8%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
80.0%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Steven Dunbar, broken up by Justin LawlerSimilar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 8
OWN 12
0
79.4%
Dane Roy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 0:3420% → 38%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+39
79.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 25 yds to the HOUSTON 29 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, personal foul (Nick Thurman) to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
77.8%
Xavier Jones run for 14 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:3169% → 83%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
69.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Keith Corbin for 12 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
83.3%
Duke Catalon run for 52 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17FG
13 plays · 31 yds · 5:3020% → 25%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
80.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 2 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+13
80.4%
Braeden West run for 13 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
79.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman pass incomplete to Trey Quinn, broken up by Alexander MyresSimilar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
79.5%
Ben Hicks run for 7 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+2
79.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 2 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+3
80.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
78.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 15 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
77.9%
SMU Penalty, false start (Nick Natour) to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+2
78.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 13
OPP 21
0
78.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for no gain to the Houst 21Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 13
OPP 21
-8
80.2%
Ben Hicks sacked by Joeal Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 29 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:46
4TH & 21
OPP 29
+46
74.6%
Josh Williams 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2279% → 94%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
79.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 14 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
80.9%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 2 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+12
81.2%
Kyle Postma run for 12 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
81.8%
Mulbah Car run for 18 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
82.2%
Mulbah Car run for 8 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+2
82.6%
Kyle Postma run for 2 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
82.6%
POSTMA, Kyle rush quarterback keeper for 1 yard to the SMU18 (WYATT, Jordan), PENALTY HOU holding (RODGERS, Na'Ty) 10 yards to the SMU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+13
82.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 13 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
94.1%
Duke Catalon run for 16 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
89.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 9 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+11
89.0%
Xavier Jones run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
50
+3
88.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 3 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
88.7%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
88.6%
Ben Hicks sacked by Matthew Adams and Reggie Chevis for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
88.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+7
89.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 7 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
89.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Terrell WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3894% → 96%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
94.4%
Duke Catalon run for 9 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
94.7%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
94.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 6 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-1
94.7%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 5
50
+4
94.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 4 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 7:16
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
96.1%
Dane Roy punt for 41 yds, downed at the SMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21INT
7 plays · 74 yds · 0:007% → 10%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
93.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 5 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+19
93.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 19 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
92.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 14 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
91.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 6 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+30
91.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 30 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
90.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ryan BeckerSimilar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+12
90.5%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Terrell Williams return for 12 yds to the Houst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:2297% → 98%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
96.5%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 13Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+1
96.8%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 14Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 9
OWN 14
-3
97.7%
Kyle Postma run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 11Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 12
OWN 11
0
97.5%
Dane Roy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the Houst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23INT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
97.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
97.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 5 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
97.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+4
97.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Shelby Walker for 4 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
97.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
97.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 11 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
97.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey Quinn, broken up by Garrett DavisSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+19
97.3%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Terrell Williams return for 19 yds to the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.3%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
98.4%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
98.4%
Duke Catalon run for 8 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:47
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
-16
TD · Q3 7:16
Duke Catalon run for 52 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)
+14.2
TD · Q4 13:24
Duke Catalon run for 16 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)
+11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com