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UCF

UCF 51 at Cincinnati 23

CIN
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:34 · James Smith punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Play 13Pregame prior−33.2Home team on offense−0.3Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:58: Hayden Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Jones KICK) — CIN win probability +3.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q1 1:32: Taj McGowan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +2.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:31: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 21 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +2.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:57: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 41 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +5.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:06: Tre'Quan Smith run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UCF made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 13:34CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:03UCF 4th & 3 at CIN 30, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%−0.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:07CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 49, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  4. Q3 14:54CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  5. Q3 4:19CIN 4th & 1 at UCF 1, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:40CIN 4th & 12 at CIN 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:39UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:40UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:58CIN Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:32UCF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:31UCF Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:57CIN Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    13.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:57UCF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:06UCF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:19CIN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:47UCF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:2184% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
16.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 5 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+9
16.4%
Jr. Adrian Killins run for 9 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
16.4%
Jr. Adrian Killins run for 5 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+54
16.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 54 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
16.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 16 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
16.8%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-5
16.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Kyle Trout) to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 13
OWN 31
-1
16.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 14
OWN 30
-5
16.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 19
OWN 25
+6
16.8%
Hayden Moore run for 6 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
16.8%
James Smith punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
17.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 79 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 5:3717% → 21%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
17.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 4 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
17.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to JJ PinckneySimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+14
17.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 14 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
17.2%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+9
17.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 9 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
17.3%
Hayden Moore run for 11 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
17.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+3
17.3%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+24
17.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 24 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
17.5%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete to LEWIS, Kahlil, PENALTY UCF pass interference (NEAL, Tre) 12 yards to the UCF2, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
17.5%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 4Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
17.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 2 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
20.7%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2180% → 84%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
19.6%
UCF Penalty, false start (Aaron Evans) to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+28
19.7%
Jr. Adrian Killins run for 13 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Linden Stephens) to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
19.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jr. Adrian Killins for 14 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
19.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 6 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+20
18.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Franks for 20 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
18.9%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+4
18.9%
MILTON, M. pass incomplete to ANDERSON, O. (JACOBS, Carter), PENALTY CIN pass interference (JACOBS, Carter) 4 yards to the CIN2, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
18.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q1 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
19.1%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the Cincy 1Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.2%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6INT
9 plays · 44 yds · 1:2817% → 18%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
17.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 29 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
17.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+14
17.9%
Mike Boone run for 14 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
18.3%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+5
18.4%
MOORE, Hayden pass intercepted by GIBSON, Kyle at the UCF21, GIBSON, Kyle return to the UCF21, out-of-bounds (ROLLINS, Jerron), PENALTY UCF offside (JASINSKI, Pat) 5 yards to the UCF28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-3
18.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
18.0%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Seyvon Lowry return for no gain to the UCF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:5784% → 86%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
16.5%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
16.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+27
16.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 12 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Carter Jacobs) to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
16.1%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-9
16.1%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Mark Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 18
OPP 45
+15
16.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 15 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+47
13.9%
Matthew Wright 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 1:5615% → 18%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
15.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
15.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+26
14.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 26 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
16.0%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
15.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 5 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-5
15.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (David Niehaus) to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
17.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Mike HughesSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+46
17.6%
James Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the CINCINNATI 10 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (5 Yards) to the UCF 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
4 plays · 95 yds · 1:2284% → 88%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+47
16.3%
Marlon Williams run for 47 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
15.1%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+21
14.9%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Perry Young) to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
12.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 21 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3412% → 16%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.2%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
12.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
12.0%
MOORE, Hayden pass complete to COGSWELL, Tyler for 12 yards to the CIN39, out-of-bounds (GIBSON, Kyle), PENALTY CIN ineligible downfield on pass (COGSWELL, Tyler) 5 yards to the CIN22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+13
12.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JJ Pinckney for 13 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
12.4%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
12.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to JJ Pinckney, broken up by Brandon MooreSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+37
12.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 37 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
14.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 10 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
16.3%
Hayden Moore run for 16 yds for a TD, (Ryan Jones PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 0:5284% → 90%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
16.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 21 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
15.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+41
10.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 41 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12FG
18 plays · 67 yds · 2:5710% → 14%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
10.3%
Hayden Moore sacked by Pat Jasinski for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+5
10.2%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+17
10.1%
Hayden Moore run for 17 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
11.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to JJ PinckneySimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
10.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 1
50
+6
11.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
11.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
11.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+5
11.3%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete to GEDDIS, Thomas, PENALTY UCF offside (GRIFFIN, Shqm) 5 yards to the UCF39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+5
11.4%
UCF Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
11.8%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete to DEGUARA, Josiah, PENALTY UCF offside (HILL, Trysten) 5 yards to the UCF29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 5
OPP 29
0
12.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+17
12.0%
Hayden Moore run for 17 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
11.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 4 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
13.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to JJ PinckneySimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+26
14.2%
Ryan Jones 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
9.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tyler CogswellSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
9.1%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
9.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
9.0%
James Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:5693% → 97%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
7.2%
Jr. Adrian Killins run for 18 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
6.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+2
6.8%
Jr. Adrian Killins run for 2 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+10
7.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 10 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
6.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 10 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
6.6%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+12
6.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 12 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
6.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 11 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
6.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
2.9%
Tre'Quan Smith run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:414% → 6%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
3.7%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
3.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 13 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
3.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+28
3.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 28 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
4.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tyler CogswellSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
4.2%
Hayden Moore run for 4 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+16
4.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Michael Warren II for 16 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
4.5%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
4.4%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the UCF 4Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 0
OPP 4
+2
4.6%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete to ROLLINS, Jerron (MOORE, Brandon), PENALTY UCF offside (GUERAD, Tony) 2 yards to the UCF2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
4.3%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 4:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:3297% → 98%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
2.7%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
2.7%
Taj McGowan run for 7 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+27
2.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 27 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
1.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 22 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
1.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 20 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
1.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-5
1.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (David Niehaus) to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 16
OWN 36
0
1.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 16
OWN 36
+4
1.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 4 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
1.4%
James Smith punt for 53 yds, downed at the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:57
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 41 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-5.1
TD · Q3 10:06
Tre'Quan Smith run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-3.8
TD · Q1 4:58
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Jones KICK)
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com