Try the model
AF

Air Force 45 at Navy 48

NAVY
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Charlie Scott punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+18.6Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:26: Timothy McVey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +10.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:28: Arion Worthman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +13.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:09: Timothy McVey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +30.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 1:53: Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 51 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) NAVY Penalty, RU ( Yards) declined — AF win probability +60.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:15: Zach Abey pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 16 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +55.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 7AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00AF 4th & 5 at AF 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:10NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:08AF 4th & 8 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:30NAVY 4th & 11 at NAVY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 20 at AF 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:56NAVY 4th & 4 at AF 4, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.6%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−6.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:08NAVY 4th & 1 at AF 7, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.6%−3.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−11.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:34NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:53NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.1%−6.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:52NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:30AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:36NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:45NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:52NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:26AF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:14NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:30AF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:28AF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:09AF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:53AF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−1.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:15NAVY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
68.6%
Nolan Eriksen run for 4 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+2
68.6%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 25
-1
68.6%
Nolan Eriksen run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
68.6%
Charlie Scott punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
68.5%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
68.4%
Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 5 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
68.4%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
68.4%
Owen White punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
68.0%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 22 Timothy McVey fumbled, forced by Sean Williams, recovered by AFA Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
68.1%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+23
68.2%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 23 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
67.7%
Nolan Eriksen run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 8
50
0
67.7%
Parker Wilson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 8
50
0
67.8%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ryan Reffitt, broken up by Justin NortonSimilar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 8
50
0
68.1%
Charlie Scott punt for 41 yds, downed at the Navy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
1 play · 91 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+91
70.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 91 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:2230% → 34%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
70.0%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+5
70.0%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+6
70.0%
Nolan Eriksen run for 6 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
69.8%
Nolan Eriksen run for 6 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+59
66.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 59 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
67.2%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
67.2%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
67.3%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
67.6%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+6
67.3%
Chris High run for 6 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
67.8%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-5
68.0%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Parker Wade) to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
67.5%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Malcolm PerrySimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
67.0%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Malcolm Perry, broken up by Shaquille VereenSimilar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+4
66.7%
Owen White punt for 47 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 4 yds to the AFA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0734% → 33%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
65.8%
Timothy McVey run for no gain to the AFA 16Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+15
66.0%
Arion Worthman run for 15 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
65.3%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
65.5%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-11
66.0%
Arion Worthman sacked by D.J. Palmore for a loss of 11 yards to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 21
0
66.7%
Charlie Scott punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:5868% → 73%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
68.0%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
68.0%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+3
67.7%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
68.3%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+6
68.3%
Chris High run for 6 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
68.3%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+6
68.3%
Chris High run for 6 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
68.3%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+2
68.3%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
73.3%
Darryl Bonner run for 10 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+18
71.8%
Ronald Cleveland run for 18 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
71.2%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ryan Reffitt, broken up by Elijah MerchantSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+16
71.7%
Nolan Eriksen run for 16 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
70.2%
Nolan Eriksen run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-6
70.7%
Arion Worthman sacked by Jerry Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 41 Arion Worthman fumbled, recovered by Navy D.J. Palmore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:0675% → 81%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
74.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 22 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
74.9%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+2
74.9%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+14
74.3%
Zach Abey run for 14 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.9%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.8%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · 46 yds · 0:0021% → 24%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
78.6%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 5 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+8
77.9%
Ronald Cleveland run for 8 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
77.8%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 8
50
0
77.7%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ja'Mel Sanders, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 8
50
+36
78.4%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 21 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+41
76.4%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 40 Arion Worthman fumbled, recovered by Navy D.J. Palmore , return for 41 yds to the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:1483% → 93%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
83.3%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Brandon Colon, broken up by James JonesSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
93.2%
Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 40 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 1:5210% → 17%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
90.1%
Arion Worthman run for 22 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
89.1%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
89.6%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Marcus BennettSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+11
89.7%
Arion Worthman run for 11 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
88.5%
Nolan Eriksen run for 1 yd to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+7
89.5%
Nolan Eriksen run for 7 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+5
89.5%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
89.1%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the Navy 14 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (Marcus Bennett) to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+1
90.6%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+13
90.6%
Arion Worthman run for 13 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+26
83.2%
Luke Strebel 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:0487% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
86.7%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+8
87.0%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
87.1%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+38
86.8%
Darryl Bonner run for 38 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
86.8%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Parker Wade) to the AFA 12Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
87.1%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
86.8%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
86.4%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Tyler CarmonaSimilar
Q3 10:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
94.7%
Bennett Moehring 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:306% → 18%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+52
93.9%
Arion Worthman run for 52 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
92.8%
Nolan Eriksen run for 4 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+11
92.9%
Arion Worthman run for 11 yds to the Navy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
82.4%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
95.4%
Zach Abey run for 75 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:445% → 16%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
94.6%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+6
94.5%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
94.5%
Parker Wilson run for 2 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
94.5%
Timothy McVey run for 19 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
94.4%
Nolan Eriksen run for 13 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
93.8%
Ronald Cleveland run for 5 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
93.7%
Nolan Eriksen run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+11
94.1%
Nolan Eriksen run for 11 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+16
94.0%
Nolan Eriksen run for 16 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
93.7%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.5%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 4:3090% → 92%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
89.9%
ABEY, Zach rush for 17 yards to the NAVY42 (FLOR, Jack), PENALTY NAVY holding 10 yards to the NAVY15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+11
89.8%
Zach Abey run for 11 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
89.8%
Zach Abey run for 17 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
90.4%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
90.4%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
90.1%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
90.6%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
90.5%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-10
90.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
92.4%
Owen White punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 3:269% → 24%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
90.9%
Ronald Cleveland run for 8 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+6
90.2%
Nolan Eriksen run for 6 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
90.8%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 22 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
89.7%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Garrett Amy for 10 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
89.5%
Ronald Cleveland run for 24 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
88.3%
WORTHMAN, Arion rush for 7 yards to the NAVY12 (MERCHANT, Elijah), PENALTY AF holding (NORTON, Alex) 10 yards to the NAVY29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+2
88.8%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 18
OPP 27
+24
89.0%
Geraud Sanders pass complete to Arion Worthman for 24 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.8%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 5:2087% → 92%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
86.8%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
87.2%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
87.3%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+14
87.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 14 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
87.6%
Zach Abey run for 9 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+7
87.6%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
87.6%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
87.6%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+4
86.7%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+25
91.8%
Bennett Moehring 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:599% → 43%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
91.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 60 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
86.9%
Arion Worthman run for 9 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+3
86.9%
Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
87.0%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the Navy 2Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.0%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3578% → 82%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.5%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
76.0%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+10
81.5%
Owen White punt for 38 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 10 yds to the AFA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:3530% → 90%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
69.9%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 6 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+51
9.8%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 51 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) NAVY Penalty, RU ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:3826% → 94%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.4%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Malcolm PerrySimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.5%
Darryl Bonner run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
25.6%
Darryl Bonner run for 2 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+25
24.8%
Zach Abey pass complete to Brandon Colon for 25 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
33.5%
Darryl Bonner run for 13 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
37.9%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
38.4%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Malcolm PerrySimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+10
35.2%
Chris High run for 10 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
38.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
38.4%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Brandon ColonSimilar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
94.1%
Zach Abey pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 16 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0821% → 20%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.6%
Arion Worthman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.6%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 26 Ronald Cleveland Jake Barnhorst Marcus Bennett Ja'Mel SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:53
Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 51 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) NAVY Penalty, RU ( Yards) declined
-60.1
TD · Q4 0:15
Zach Abey pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 16 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
+55.7
TD · Q4 4:09
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-30
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com