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NAVY

Navy 31 at Tulsa 21

TLSA
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:15 · Thomas Bennett punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Home team on offense+6.0Pregame prior−11.9Score differential+1.5Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:32: Chad President run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +8.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:27: Zach Abey run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +14.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:45: Malcolm Perry run for 27 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +21.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:47: Zach Abey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +8.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:01: Chad President pass complete to Chris Minter for 4 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +9.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:15NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:57NAVY 4th & 8 at TLSA 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:27NAVY 4th & 5 at TLSA 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    49.4%−1.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:35TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:15TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:03NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−3.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:40TLSA 4th & 13 at TLSA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−3.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:23NAVY 4th & 7 at TLSA 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−14.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.2%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:45TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:18NAVY 4th & 4 at TLSA 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−8.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:24NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 32, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:15TLSA 4th & 10 at NAVY 32, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:55NAVY 4th & 12 at TLSA 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:22TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:32TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:19NAVY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:27NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:45NAVY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:47NAVY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:01TLSA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3830% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.3%
Chad President pass complete to Nigel Carter for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+35
30.3%
Chad President run for 35 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
30.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+10
30.3%
Chad President pass complete to Nigel Carter for 10 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
30.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
30.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+10
30.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 10 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
30.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
30.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
32.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+10
32.2%
Zach Abey run for 10 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
32.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-15
32.1%
HIGH, Chris rush for 12 yards to the TLS36 (WILSON JR, P.), PENALTY NAVY personal foul 15 yards to the NAVY37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 19
OWN 37
0
32.3%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 19
OWN 37
+4
32.4%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
32.5%
Owen White punt for 48 yds, downed at the Tulsa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
34.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
34.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
34.6%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 8
OWN 13
+5
34.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 38 yds , Craig Scott returns for 5 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4MISSED FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 5:0265% → 60%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
35.1%
Zach Abey run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
34.8%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-5
34.7%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+9
35.2%
Zach Abey run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+6
35.1%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
34.7%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+10
34.7%
Zach Abey run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
34.7%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
34.7%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
35.2%
Chris High run for no gain to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
39.3%
NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q1 2:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
39.6%
Bennett Moehring 26 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 2:2541% → 51%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
40.6%
Chad President run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+71
40.6%
Chad President run for 71 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
42.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
42.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+7
41.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 7 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.8%
Chad President run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+31
48.4%
Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 31 yds Malcolm Perry fumbled, forced by Craig Suits, recovered by Tulsa Cooper EdmistonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:1351% → 51%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
50.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
51.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
51.1%
Chad President pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
50.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 43 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
49.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 11 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.4%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
49.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 15 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
49.0%
Zach Abey run for 9 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
48.1%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
48.4%
Jahmaal Daniel run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
48.3%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-5
48.4%
HIGH, Chris rush for 4 yards to the TLS37 (ROBINSON, S.), PENALTY NAVY illegal shift 5 yards to the TLS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+3
49.1%
Josh Brown run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 14:27
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
49.1%
Owen White punt for 33 yds, fair catch by D'Angelo Brewer at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
58.1%
Chad President pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+1
58.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+4
57.5%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 4 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 5
OWN 15
+17
56.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 46 , Craig Scott returns for 17 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:3543% → 51%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
57.0%
Zach Abey run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
56.7%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Tyler Carmona, broken up by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+10
56.8%
Josh Brown run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
55.8%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+10
56.1%
John Brown III run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
55.8%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+8
55.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.1%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
54.1%
Chad President run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-10
53.9%
BREWER, D. rush for 4 yards to the TLS25 (DAVENPORT, M), PENALTY TLS holding 10 yards to the TLS11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 18
OWN 11
+5
53.7%
Chad President run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+18
52.9%
Chad President run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
54.4%
Chad President pass complete to Josh Stewart for 1 yd to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+2
54.3%
Chad President run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
54.0%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
53.1%
Thomas Bennett punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 0:5144% → 64%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+25
55.9%
Chris High run for 25 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+37
53.2%
Zach Abey pass complete to Brandon Colon for 37 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
50.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.4%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
45.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 16 yds · 4:5760% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.5%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
40.1%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
39.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
38.2%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
38.4%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
37.9%
Chris High run for no gain to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
38.6%
Zach Abey run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-15
37.5%
ABEY, Zach rush for 2 yards to the TLS43 (REVELS III, R.;WILSON JR, P.), PENALTY NAVY clipping 15 yards to the NAVY40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+1
43.8%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
45.2%
Owen White punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:4048% → 47%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
48.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
49.5%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+1
47.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+4
47.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-10
48.7%
PRESIDENT, C. pass complete to HOBBS, J. for 62 yards to the NAVY0, clock 07:40, PENALTY TLS holding 10 yards to the TLS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 20
OWN 28
+7
46.8%
Chad President run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+11
46.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 42 yds , Craig Scott returns for 11 yds to the Navy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:5956% → 63%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
43.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 20 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
40.8%
Chris High run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
40.8%
Chris High run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+7
39.4%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
39.4%
John Brown III run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+13
39.4%
Zach Abey run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
39.4%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
39.4%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
40.9%
ABEY, Zach rush for 2 yards to the TLS1 (EVANS, A.), PENALTY NAVY false start 5 yards to the TLS8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
40.9%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q3 1:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
37.2%
Bennett Moehring 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1641% → 40%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
41.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
41.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
42.2%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+1
39.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 27 D'Angelo Brewer fumbled, forced by Micah Thomas, recovered by Tulsa Justin HobbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
18.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 27 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
20.9%
Chad President run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
21.4%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
19.8%
Chad President run for no gain to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-2
19.0%
Thomas Bennett punt for 40 yds , Craig Scott returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:4279% → 98%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
20.8%
TULSA Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+4
20.5%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+37
19.4%
Chris High run for 37 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
18.3%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+3
18.3%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-3
18.9%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+12
11.9%
Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 12 yds to the Tulsa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
10.4%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
10.4%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.2%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:465% → 17%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
5.3%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 15 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
5.6%
Chad President pass complete to Nigel Carter for 22 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
6.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+12
6.8%
PRESIDENT, C. pass incomplete to STEWART, J., PENALTY NAVY pass interference (MERCHANT, E) 12 yards to the NAVY23, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
7.1%
Chad President run for 4 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
7.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Navy 4Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
16.7%
Chad President pass complete to Chris Minter for 4 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:3290% → 95%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
9.8%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
9.7%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+4
8.9%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+4
5.2%
Owen White punt for 44 yds , D'Angelo Brewer returns for 4 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 47 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
9.7%
Chad President pass complete to Nigel Carter for 9 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+31
10.9%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 31 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
14.5%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 5 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-10
14.7%
PRESIDENT, C. rush for 4 yards to the NAVY23, PENALTY TLS holding 10 yards to the NAVY37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+5
10.7%
Chad President pass complete to Josh Stewart for 5 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
11.8%
Chad President pass incomplete to Keenen Johnson, broken up by Sean WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+7
10.0%
Chad President pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 7 yds to the Navy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:4896% → 98%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
4.5%
Zach Abey run for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
4.1%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
3.9%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+5
3.8%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
3.6%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
1.9%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-2
2.1%
Chris High run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 6
OPP 43
-6
2.2%
NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-6 Yards) to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
2.4%
Owen White punt for 44 yds, fair catch by D'Angelo Brewer at the Tulsa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:45
Malcolm Perry run for 27 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-21.7
TD · Q2 0:27
Zach Abey run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-14
TD · Q4 7:01
Chad President pass complete to Chris Minter for 4 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com