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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreHOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:15 · Ryquell Armstead run for 3 yds to the Temp 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 11:34: Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 9 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK) — HOU win probability +9.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:56: Aaron Boumerhi 41 yd FG GOOD — TEM win probability +3.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:53: David Hood 1 Yd pass from Logan Marchi (Aaron Boumerhi Kick), (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — TEM win probability +6.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q4 8:47: Aaron Boumerhi 29 Yd Field Goal — TEM win probability +4.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:37: Duke Catalon run for 9 yds to the Temp 33 — HOU win probability +9.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 10:49HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snapGo for it73.0%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.1%average punt
- Q1 8:07TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snapGo for it28.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.1%average punt
- Q1 4:11TEM 4th & 14 at TEM 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snapGo for it25.7%−0.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.4%average punt
- Q2 13:58HOU 4th & 4 at TEM 8, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snapGo for it73.6%42% to convertField goalTheir call73.4%−0.290% to makePunt70.3%−3.3average punt
- Q2 7:49TEM 4th & 3 at HOU 40, down 13Close callPunted · 23.7% before the snapGo for it23.9%52% to convertField goal23.1%−0.834% to makePuntTheir call23.2%−0.7average punt
- Q2 1:08HOU 4th & 11 at TEM 41, up 13Close callPunted · 80.2% before the snapGo for it79.7%−0.127% to convertField goal79.8%32% to makePuntTheir call79.6%−0.2average punt
- Q3 8:56TEM 4th & 10 at HOU 23, down 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snapGo for it9.3%−1.028% to convertField goalTheir call10.3%70% to makePunt4.9%−5.3average punt
- Q3 8:56HOU 4th & 10 at TEM 41, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snapGo for it87.2%−0.130% to convertField goal86.8%−0.532% to makePuntTheir call87.3%average punt
- Q4 14:53TEM 4th & 1 at HOU 1, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.3%59% to convertField goal8.9%−2.494% to makePunt2.5%−8.8average punt
- Q4 14:47HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 11, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snapGo for it76.2%−4.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.4%average punt
- Q4 13:08TEM 4th & 1 at HOU 42, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.8%70% to convertField goal15.9%−3.930% to makePunt16.8%−3.1average punt
- Q4 8:47TEM 4th & 7 at HOU 12, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snapGo for it14.1%−1.533% to convertField goalTheir call15.6%86% to makePunt7.8%−7.8average punt
- Q4 8:39HOU 4th & 7 at midfield, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it81.2%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.4%average punt
- Q4 5:15TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.6%−4.8average punt
- Q4 1:43TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.8%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.0%−1.8average punt
- Q4 1:24HOU 4th & 9 at TEM 41, up 7Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snapGo for it89.8%32% to convertField goal89.6%−0.232% to makePuntTheir call89.5%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:18HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.4%97% to makeGo for two72.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:34HOU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.6%97% to makeGo for two88.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:53TEM Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.4%97% to makeGo for two18.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT13 plays · 14 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+8
21.0%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 8 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+5
21.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive offside (Nick Thurman) to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+17
21.0%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 17 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-24
21.0%
Logan Marchi sacked by Emeke Egbule for a loss of 24 yards to the Houst 36 TEMPLE Penalty, intentional grounding (Logan Marchi) to the Houst 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
23.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 11 yds to the Houst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
23.0%
POSTMA, Kyle pass complete to CORBIN, Keith for 21 yards to the HOU37 (JONES,MIKE), PENALTY HOU pass interference (CORBIN, Keith) 8 yards to the HOU8, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5475% → 78%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
24.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 8 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
24.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 3 yds to the Temp 42Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+14
24.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 14 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
23.9%
POSTMA, Kyle pass intercepted by JONES,MIKE at the TEM0, JONES,MIKE return to the TEM1, PENALTY TEM pass interference (JONES,MIKE) 15 yards to the TEM13, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
HOUDrive 6FG12 plays · 55 yds · 3:1477% → 78%
Q1 2:12
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+8
22.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 8 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+18
22.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 18 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
22.0%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Steven Dunbar, broken up by Mike JonesSimilar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+14
22.1%
POSTMA, Kyle pass incomplete to BONNER, Linell, PENALTY TEM personal foul (BRADLEY,SHAUN) 14 yards to the TEM14, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
22.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Duke Catalon for 4 yds Duke Catalon fumbled, forced by Quincy Roche,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7INT10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 5
OWN 40
-5
22.7%
MARCHI,LOGAN pass incomplete to ELLICK,MARSHALL, PENALTY TEM ineligible downfield on pass (JOHNSON,LEON) 5 yards to the TEM35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
22.1%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 3 yds to the Temp 38Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+16
21.8%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Randle Jones for 16 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
22.9%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 15 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+28
22.7%
Logan Marchi pass intercepted Garrett Davis return for 28 yds to the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8FG11 plays · 47 yds · 3:0278% → 80%
Q2 10:59
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
21.9%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 2 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+11
21.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Dillon Birden for 11 yds to the Temp 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
21.5%
POSTMA, Kyle pass complete to JEFFERSON, Elli for 8 yards to the TEM0, clock 08:19, PENALTY HOU pass interference (JEFFERSON, Elli) 15 yards to the TEM23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 23
+5
22.2%
POSTMA, Kyle pass incomplete to DUNBAR, Steven (THOMAS,DERREK), PENALTY TEM offside (TAYLOR,JULLIAN) 5 yards to the TEM18, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q2 7:49
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+4
20.1%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 4 yds to the Temp 31Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+22
20.0%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 22 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
21.0%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 7 yds to the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10INT6 plays · 50 yds · 0:0081% → 83%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+39
18.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Keith Corbin for 39 yds to the Temp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+16
18.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 16 yds to the Temp 40Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+5
17.7%
TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive offside (Dan Archibong) to the Temp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
17.5%
Kyle Postma pass intercepted Delvon Randall return for no gain to the Temp 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11INT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
18.9%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 6 yds to the Temp 19Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+8
18.8%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 8 yds to the Temp 22Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+6
18.8%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 6 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
19.1%
Logan Marchi pass intercepted Isaiah Johnson return for 10 yds to the Temp 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0784% → 82%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
15.8%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Dillon Birden for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
18.9%
Logan Marchi pass complete to David Hood for 3 yds to the Temp 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD12 plays · 85 yds · 3:2682% → 93%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
18.0%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 7 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+15
18.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
17.4%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 23 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
16.5%
POSTMA, Kyle pass incomplete to DUNBAR, Steven, PENALTY TEM pass interference (JONES,MIKE) 15 yards to the TEM14, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
16.5%
CATALON, Duke rush for 3 yards to the TEM1 (CHANDLER,SEAN), PENALTY HOU false start 5 yards to the TEM9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
6.6%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 9 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15FG9 plays · 41 yds · 2:3210% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.5%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
11.2%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
11.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 11 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-10
10.6%
POSTMA, Kyle sacked for loss of 1 yard to the TEM42 (BOOTH-LLOYD,F.), PENALTY HOU holding (RODGERS, Na'Ty) 10 yards to the HOU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 20
OWN 49
+1
10.9%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17TD11 plays · 85 yds · 4:3711% → 19%
Q3 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+20
11.2%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Randle Jones for 20 yds to the Temp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+16
12.2%
David Hood run for 16 yds to the Houst 38 David Hood fumbled, forced by Matthew Adams, recovered by Temp Marshall Ellick for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+13
13.2%
David Hood run for 13 yds to the Houst 6 David Hood fumbled, forced by Jeremy Winchester, recovered by Temp Freddie Johnson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
13.2%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Chris Myarick for 3 yds to the Houst 1Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.2%
David Hood 1 Yd pass from Logan Marchi (Aaron Boumerhi Kick), (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q4 14:47
2ND & 16
OWN 8
+1
19.6%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Duke Catalon for 1 yd to the Houst 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19FG12 plays · 50 yds · 4:2118% → 25%
Q4 13:08
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
19.2%
Logan Marchi pass incomplete to Keith Kirkwood, broken up by Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+4
19.4%
Logan Marchi pass complete to David Hood for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+17
18.1%
Logan Marchi run for 2 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, personal foul (Duke Catalon) to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
21.7%
MARCHI,LOGAN pass intercepted by DAVIS, Garrett at the HOU0, DAVIS, Garrett return to the HOU0 (KIRKWOOD,KEITH), touchback, PENALTY HOU holding (WILLIAMS, Kh.) 10 yards to the HOU15, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
18.1%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 2 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-1
18.3%
Kyle Postma pass complete to Duke Catalon for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 22Similar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
15.7%
Kyle Postma pass incomplete to Steven Dunbar, broken up by Sean ChandlerSimilar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
15.7%
Kyle Postma pass complete to D'Eriq King for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21DOWNS13 plays · 34 yds · 3:3220% → 14%
HOUDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 1 yds · 0:1395% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23INT5 plays · 25 yds · 0:268% → 9%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+21
7.6%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 21 yds to the Temp 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
8.3%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 4 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+8
8.9%
Logan Marchi pass intercepted Garrett Davis return for 8 yds to the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:34
Kyle Postma pass complete to Linell Bonner for 9 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)
-9.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:37
Duke Catalon run for 9 yds to the Temp 33
-9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-8.9