Try the model
USF

South Florida 61 at East Carolina 31

ECU
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.5ECU 4.7%Emilio Nadelman 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 48 - HOME 31 · Q3 0:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:00 · Emilio Nadelman 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Pregame prior−16.5Home team on offense−33.4Score differential−15.3Garbage-time factor−9.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:49: Thomas Sirk run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +4.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: Thomas Sirk pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +5.9 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:48: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 14 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +4.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:31: Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +8.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:51: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 4 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +7.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:49ECU 4th & 8 at USF 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:14USF 4th & 1 at USF 34, up 4
    Close callPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:48ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:13USF 4th & 13 at ECU 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:13ECU 4th & 10 at USF 34, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:37ECU 4th & 13 at ECU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:35USF 4th & 4 at USF 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:31ECU 4th & 1 at USF 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:51ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:00USF 4th & 3 at ECU 11, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%−0.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    86.1%−6.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:55ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 31, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:09USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:11USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:14ECU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:48USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:49ECU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:37USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:00ECU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:48USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:31ECU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:51USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:40USF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:55USF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
6.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
6.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Davon Grayson, broken up by Jaymon ThomasSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+2
6.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 2 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 12
+12
6.5%
Austin Barnes punt for 39 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 12 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2TD
11 plays · 39 yds · 2:2393% → 93%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
7.0%
Trevon Sands run for 4 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
6.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+6
7.0%
Trevon Sands run for 6 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
6.9%
Trevon Sands run for 1 yd to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+7
6.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 7 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+4
7.0%
Trevon Sands run for 4 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
6.9%
FLOWERS, Q middle pass incomplete to MCCANTS, Tyre, PENALTY ECU pass interference 12 yards to the ECU5, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
6.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
6.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:208% → 9%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
7.5%
Thomas Sirk run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+3
7.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 3 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+44
7.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 44 yds to the EASTCRLINA 13 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
7.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
7.6%
Hussein Howe run for 2 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
7.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
8.5%
Jake Verity 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:3892% → 92%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+44
8.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 44 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
7.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 16 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:578% → 11%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
7.8%
SIRK, Thomas sideline pass incomplete to GRAYSON, Davon (HOGGINS, Ronnie), PENALTY ECU holding 10 yards to the ECU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-7
7.8%
Thomas Sirk sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 7 yards to the ECaro 8Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 27
OWN 8
+13
7.7%
Thomas Sirk run for 13 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+15
7.7%
BARNES, Austin punt 44 yards to the USF35, fair catch by JOHNSON, D'Erne, PENALTY USF roughing the kicker (SANDS, Trevon) 15 yards to the ECU36, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
7.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 21 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
8.0%
Derrell Scott run for 3 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
8.0%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
8.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 9 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
10.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 31 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
9.9%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
9.8%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
9.9%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 34 yds, downed at the ECaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7INT TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:0810% → 9%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
10.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 13 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
10.7%
Tyshon Dye run for 2 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+43
9.1%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted for a TD Auggie Sanchez return for 43 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
8.8%
Tyshon Dye run for 6 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
8.9%
Derrell Scott run for no gain to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
8.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+6
8.7%
Austin Barnes punt for 43 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 6 yds to the SFla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:0691% → 92%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
9.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 16 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
9.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
9.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+35
9.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 35 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
8.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the ECaro 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-3
8.9%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 20 Quinton Flowers fumbled, recovered by SFla Quinton FlowersSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 20
0
9.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
8.2%
Emilio Nadelman 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:249% → 13%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
8.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Derrell Scott for 29 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
9.0%
SIRK, Thomas deep out pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jimmy, PENALTY USF holding (WILKINS, Mazzi) 12 yards to the USF34, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
9.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Mazzi WilkinsSimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
9.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
9.0%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+11
8.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 11 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
9.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete, broken up by Bruce HectorSimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+10
9.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 10 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
13.1%
Thomas Sirk run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
8.1%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling run for 75 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
8.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 11 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
8.5%
Quay Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+3
8.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Tyshon Dye for 3 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 13
OWN 31
0
8.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Quay Johnson, broken up by Mazzi WilkinsSimilar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
8.3%
Austin Barnes punt for 51 yds, downed at the SFla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
8.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+16
8.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 16 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
8.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-7
8.2%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Kiante Anderson for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+13
8.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 13 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+16
8.4%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EASTCRLINA 25 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Trevon Sands) to the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14TD
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:019% → 15%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
9.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Derrell Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+15
9.0%
Thomas Sirk run for 15 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
9.6%
Darius Pinnix run for 3 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-2
9.5%
Darius Pinnix run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+10
9.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Darius Pinnix for 10 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
9.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+16
9.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 16 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
9.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 9 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
9.8%
Hussein Howe run for no gain to the SFla 15Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+9
9.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 9 yds to the SFla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
9.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
9.8%
Darius Pinnix run for 1 yd to the SFla 2Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
14.9%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1286% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
13.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
13.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
13.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+33
13.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 33 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
12.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 12 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
12.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
12.3%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the ECaro 14Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
7.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 14 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 5:179% → 19%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
9.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Hussein HoweSimilar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+44
9.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 44 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
10.8%
Hussein Howe run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+10
10.3%
SIRK, Thomas sideline pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jimmy, QB hurry by SENAT, Deadrin, PENALTY USF holding 10 yards to the USF23, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+10
10.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 10 yds to the SFla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
10.8%
Darius Pinnix run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 4Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
10.8%
Darius Pinnix run for 3 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
10.5%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
10.8%
Hussein Howe run for 5 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
10.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 4 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+1
10.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
10.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Davon Grayson, broken up by Mazzi WilkinsSimilar
Q3 6:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4085% → 94%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
15.3%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
15.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 14 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
13.9%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+14
14.0%
Darius Tice run for 14 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
13.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
13.7%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+7
13.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
13.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 17 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
13.2%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the ECaro 8Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
13.2%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
6.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 4 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
7.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
7.8%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
7.7%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Davon Grayson, broken up by Mazzi WilkinsSimilar
Q3 1:51
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
7.7%
Austin Barnes punt for a loss of 5 yards, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2394% → 95%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
6.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+1
6.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 11Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
6.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
4.7%
Emilio Nadelman 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Naytron CulpepperSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
6.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
6.6%
Thomas Sirk run for 8 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
6.9%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jimmy Williams, broken up by Naytron CulpepperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:2696% → 99%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
3.9%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling run for 5 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
3.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-11
3.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 24 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 16
OPP 39
+26
4.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 26 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
3.6%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the ECaro 6Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+5
3.6%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.1%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22INT
12 plays · 59 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.3%
Hussein Howe run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
1.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Hussein Howe for 8 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
1.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 8 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
1.4%
Hussein Howe run for 1 yd to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
1.5%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
1.4%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
1.4%
SIRK, Thomas deep out pass intercepted by NICHOLS, Deatri at the USF15, NICHOLS, Deatri return to the USF15, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USF offside defense 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 5
50
+34
1.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Mydreon Vines for 34 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
1.6%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the SFla 16Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
1.6%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted, touchback. Mazzi Wilkins return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5099% → 100%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
1.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+41
1.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 41 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
0.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+2
0.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 2 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+9
0.9%
FLOWERS, Q middle pass incomplete to TICE, Darius, PENALTY ECU pass interference 9 yards to the ECU20, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
0.9%
Darius Tice run for 10 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
0.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
0.1%
Tyshon Dye run for 4 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+4
0.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Tyshon Dye for 4 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+1
0.1%
Austin Barnes punt for 52 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 1 yd to the SFla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25FUMBLE
9 plays · 51 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
0.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 6 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+7
0.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 7 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
0.2%
Elijah Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
0.1%
Elijah Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+12
0.1%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 12 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
0.1%
Elijah Mack run for 2 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+2
0.1%
Brett Kean run for 2 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+9
0.1%
Trevon Sands run for 9 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
0.1%
Trevon Sands run for 5 yds to the ECaro 31 Trevon Sands fumbled, forced by Austin Teague, recovered by ECaro Shaun JamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
0.0%
Gardner Minshew pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
0.0%
Hussein Howe run for 2 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:31
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)
+8.4
TD · Q3 1:51
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 4 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
-7
TD · Q2 0:00
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com