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UNM

New Mexico 16 at Tulsa 13

TLSA
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:50 · Thomas Bennett punt for 47 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for 16 yds to the NMex 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factor
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+10.6Home team on offense−2.4Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 13:57: Jason Sanders 34 yd FG GOOD — UNM win probability +3.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:49: D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +6.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:53: Redford Jones 26 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +7.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:43: Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 45 — UNM win probability +15.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Jason Sanders 53 yd FG GOOD — UNM win probability +40.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:18TLSA 4th & 6 at UNM 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:45TLSA 4th & 10 at UNM 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:38UNM 4th & 4 at TLSA 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:57UNM 4th & 11 at TLSA 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:08UNM 4th & 13 at TLSA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:08TLSA 4th & 17 at UNM 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    63.8%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:57UNM 4th & 2 at TLSA 46, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−2.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:50TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:11UNM 4th & 1 at TLSA 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.1%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−4.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−16.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:53TLSA 4th & 8 at UNM 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−13.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:36TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−2.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:41UNM 4th & 1 at TLSA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%−9.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−11.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:10TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.3%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00UNM 4th & 12 at TLSA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−11.0
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.9%
    42% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−11.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:32UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:49TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:2830% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
70.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+9
70.0%
Coltin Gerhart run for 9 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
70.0%
Coltin Gerhart run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST down Tyrone Owens for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
70.0%
Romell Jordan run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+10
70.0%
Coltin Gerhart run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
68.0%
Coltin Gerhart run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:1468% → 67%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
68.5%
Chad President pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
68.4%
Chad President pass complete to Nigel Carter for 5 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+17
68.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 17 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
68.7%
Chad President pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
68.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+1
68.7%
Chad President run for 1 yd to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 6
OPP 37
-8
67.3%
Chad President sacked by Rhashaun Epting for a loss of 8 yards to the NMex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
66.5%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the NMex 47 Richard McQuarley fumbled, forced by Jeremy Smith, recovered by Tulsa Cooper EdmistonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FG
10 plays · 14 yds · 1:2068% → 68%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.7%
Chad President pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
67.6%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the NMex 47Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+5
67.3%
PRESIDENT, C. pass incomplete to STEWART, J., PENALTY NM offside defense (EPTING, Rashaun) 5 yards to the NM42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-5
67.6%
TULSA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NMex 47Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+14
67.3%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 14 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
67.5%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the NMex 33Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
67.5%
Chad President pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
67.0%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+50
67.6%
Redford Jones 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5FG
18 plays · 73 yds · 8:4133% → 40%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
67.5%
Romell Jordan run for 10 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
67.5%
Coltin Gerhart run for 4 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+18
67.3%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 18 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
66.9%
Coltin Gerhart run for 1 yd to the NMex 43Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+8
67.0%
Coltin Gerhart run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
66.9%
Coltin Gerhart run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
66.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-2
66.8%
Daryl Chestnut run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+6
67.0%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Richard McQuarley for 6 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+10
67.2%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 10 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
66.7%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
66.7%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+11
63.6%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 11 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
63.1%
Coltin Gerhart run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 17 Coltin Gerhart fumbled, recovered by NMexSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 17
0
63.3%
Coltin Gerhart pass incomplete to Q' DrennanSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
63.6%
Coltin Gerhart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+34
60.2%
Jason Sanders 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0861% → 69%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
60.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+34
60.5%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 34 yds to the TULSA 42 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+35
62.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 35 yds to the NMex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
63.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the NMex 4Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
69.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:3534% → 38%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+42
66.0%
Daryl Chestnut run for 27 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, personal foul (Petera Wilson Jr.) to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
64.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
63.5%
Coltin Gerhart run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+12
64.2%
Coltin Gerhart run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
63.5%
Romell Jordan run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+1
63.5%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 8
OPP 17
-5
64.4%
Coltin Gerhart sacked by Jeremy Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+39
61.8%
Jason Sanders 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.3%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by D'Angelo RossSimilar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
60.2%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 9 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
62.1%
Chad President run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+10
63.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 10 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
63.9%
PRESIDENT, C. pass incomplete to HOBBS, J., PENALTY NM personal foul 15 yards to the NM31, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
64.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
64.7%
Chad President pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-8
63.5%
Chad President sacked by Jordan Flack for a loss of 8 yards to the NMex 38Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 17
OPP 38
0
60.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 29 yds, downed at the NMex 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:3540% → 44%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
60.4%
OWENS, Tyrone rush for 7 yards to the NM16 (DAVIS JR, F.), PENALTY NM illegal formation 4 yards to the NM5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+1
60.4%
Coltin Gerhart run for 1 yd to the NMex 6Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 13
OWN 6
+40
60.7%
Coltin Gerhart run for 40 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
58.1%
Romell Jordan run for 1 yd to the NMex 47Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-3
58.3%
Coltin Gerhart run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+10
57.4%
Bryson Carroll run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
56.4%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
58.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
58.5%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 8 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
58.5%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
60.2%
Chad President pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 3 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
59.8%
Chad President pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by D'Angelo RossSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+16
57.7%
Thomas Bennett punt for 47 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for 16 yds to the NMex 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
56.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
58.7%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Cody BakerSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
57.6%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 15 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
61.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
59.8%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
58.3%
Chad President pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
57.0%
Thomas Bennett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis Jr. at the NMex 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13FUMBLE
20 plays · 80 yds · 7:3444% → 50%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
56.3%
Coltin Gerhart run for no gain to the NMex 13Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
56.6%
Coltin Gerhart run for 4 yds to the NMex 17Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+6
57.5%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Q' Drennan for 6 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
56.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the NMex 24Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-10
56.2%
McQUARLEY, R. rush for 7 yards to the NM31 (WHITFIELD, M.), PENALTY NM holding (CASTELLANOS, I.) 10 yards to the NM14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 19
OWN 14
+21
56.6%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 21 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.3%
Coltin Gerhart pass incomplete to Jay Griffin IVSimilar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+29
55.8%
Coltin Gerhart run for 29 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
53.3%
Daryl Chestnut run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+1
52.5%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+6
53.9%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Daryl Chestnut for 6 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+5
55.3%
GERHART, Coltin rush for 4 yards to the TLS23 (WILSON JR, P.), PENALTY TLS offside defense 5 yards to the TLS22, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
52.2%
Richard McQuarley run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 4
OPP 16
-10
46.4%
GERHART, Coltin rush for 16 yards to the TLS0, clock 06:11, PENALTY NM holding (JENKINS, Aaron) 10 yards to the TLS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 14
OPP 26
0
48.0%
Coltin Gerhart pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 14
OPP 26
+15
50.1%
GERHART, Coltin pass incomplete to DRENNAN, Q', PENALTY TLS pass interference 15 yards to the TLS11, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
46.4%
Romell Jordan run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
46.4%
Coltin Gerhart run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
48.0%
Richard McQuarley run for no gain to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 1
OPP 2
-5
50.1%
Coltin Gerhart run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 7 Coltin Gerhart fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Chris MinterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14FG
13 plays · 84 yds · 3:5751% → 63%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
51.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
51.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+10
49.7%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 10 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
51.9%
Chad President pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 11 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+45
52.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 45 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
58.7%
Chad President run for 3 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+6
58.7%
Chad President pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 6 yds to the NMex 15Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+4
56.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
58.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the NMex 8Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-5
58.7%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 13Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+4
58.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
55.2%
Chad President pass incomplete to Nigel Carter, broken up by Bijon ParkerSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
62.7%
Redford Jones 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15INT
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:0743% → 48%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
56.9%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Zahneer Shuler for 27 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
52.2%
Coltin Gerhart run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+28
51.7%
Romell Jordan run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, face mask (14 yards) (Petera Wilson Jr.) to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
50.3%
Coltin Gerhart run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-4
50.3%
Daryl Chestnut run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 14 Daryl Chestnut fumbled, recovered by NMex Coltin GerhartSimilar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+18
52.0%
Coltin Gerhart pass intercepted Craig Suits return for 18 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
63.5%
Chad President pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
63.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
63.4%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Jalin BurrellSimilar
Q4 11:36
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
61.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 47 yds · 0:0044% → 46%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
56.3%
Jay Griffin IV run for 20 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
52.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
50.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+4
50.7%
Romell Jordan run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+1
51.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
53.9%
Coltin Gerhart run for no gain to the Tulsa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0061% → 64%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
60.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
60.9%
Chad President pass complete to Josh Stewart for 8 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
62.9%
Chad President run for no gain to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+4
60.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
64.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
64.1%
Chad President pass intercepted Bijon Parker return for no gain to the NMex 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19FG
14 plays · 22 yds · 4:4351% → 93%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
48.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
47.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+4
47.3%
Romell Jordan run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
46.9%
Romell Jordan run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
46.7%
Richard McQuarley run for no gain to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
47.7%
Coltin Gerhart run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
45.0%
Romell Jordan run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+2
41.8%
Romell Jordan run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
42.2%
Romell Jordan run for no gain to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 7
OPP 31
-5
46.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 36
+53
6.7%
Jason Sanders 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Jason Sanders 53 yd FG GOOD
-40.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:43
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 45
-15.3
FG · Q4 14:53
Redford Jones 26 yd FG GOOD
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com