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SIU

Southern Illinois 31 at Memphis 44

MEM
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadSIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreSIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:02 · Sam Straub run for 7 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Pregame prior+27.4Home team on offense+3.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:36: Sam Straub pass complete to Darrell James for 33 yds for a TD, (Matt Sotiropoulos KICK) — SIU win probability +7.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: SIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:47: Darrell Henderson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Spencer Smith KICK) — MEM win probability +7.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:05: Nico Gualdoni kickoff for 65 yds , Tony Pollard return for 100 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +13.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SIU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:31: Spencer Smith 31 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:51: Sam Straub pass complete to Jaylon Graham for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Sotiropoulos KICK) — SIU win probability +17.5 pts (now 25%) (top driver: SIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:23MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03SIU 4th & 4 at MEM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:04MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00SIU 4th & 8 at SIU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:18SIU 4th & 9 at SIU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:01MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:24SIU 4th & 4 at SIU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:06MEM 4th & 1 at SIU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−0.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:31MEM 4th & 9 at SIU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:44SIU 4th & 5 at SIU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:08MEM 4th & 5 at SIU 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−4.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:02SIU 4th & 1 at MEM 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−2.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:02SIU 4th & 1 at MEM 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−1.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−6.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:20SIU 4th & 7 at MEM 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−8.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00SIU 4th & 10 at SIU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:31MEM 4th & 6 at SIU 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−3.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:15SIU 4th & 4 at MEM 9, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.8
    43% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:29SIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:10MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:10SIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:53MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:36SIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:47MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:05MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:51SIU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:21MEM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SIUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:313% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
97.1%
Daquan Isom run for 11 yds to the SoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
97.1%
Sam Straub pass complete to Daquan Isom for 1 yd to the SoIll 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+4
97.1%
Daquan Isom run for 4 yds to the SoIll 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+5
97.1%
Sam Straub pass complete to Connor Iwema for 5 yds to the SoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
97.1%
Daquan Isom run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoIll 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+22
97.1%
Sam Straub pass complete to Connor Iwema for 22 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
97.1%
Daquan Isom run for no gain to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
97.1%
Sam Straub pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+36
96.3%
Sam Straub pass complete to Connor Iwema for 36 yds for a TD, (Matt Sotiropoulos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony Pollard, broken up by Craig JamesSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
96.4%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
96.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
96.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 54 yds, downed at the SoIll 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 3INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
96.1%
Daquan Isom run for 2 yds to the SoIll 11 SOUTHN ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (Darrell James) to the SoIll 5Similar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+6
96.1%
Daquan Isom run for 6 yds to the SoIll 11Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+8
96.1%
Jimmy Jones run for 8 yds to the SoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+36
96.1%
Sam Straub pass intercepted Shaun Rupert return for 36 yds to the SoIll 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:5096% → 96%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
95.9%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the SoIll 10Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+9
95.9%
Darrell Henderson run for 9 yds to the SoIll 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 1 yd for a TD SOUTHN ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Spencer Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 5TD
16 plays · 73 yds · 6:534% → 8%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
95.9%
Daquan Isom run for 1 yd to the SoIll 28Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+8
95.9%
Daquan Isom run for 8 yds to the SoIll 36Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
95.8%
Sam Straub run for 3 yds to the SoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
95.8%
Daquan Isom run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoIll 38Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+3
95.9%
D.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the SoIll 41Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+18
95.9%
Sam Straub pass complete to Raphael Leonard for 18 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
95.8%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to D.J. DavisSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
95.8%
Daquan Isom run for 4 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+2
95.8%
Sam Straub pass complete to Connor Iwema for 2 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+7
95.9%
Sam Straub pass complete to Raphael Leonard for 7 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
95.7%
Daquan Isom run for 6 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
95.7%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to Connor Iwema, broken up by Shaun RupertSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+12
95.8%
Sam Straub pass complete to Raphael Leonard for 12 yds to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
95.7%
D.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the Memph 7Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.3%
Sam Straub pass complete to Darrell James for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Sotiropoulos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
92.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
92.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
92.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
92.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q1 1:04
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+9
92.6%
Nick Jacobs punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoIll 32 , Craig James returns for 9 yds to the SoIll 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
92.0%
Daquan Isom run for 1 yd to the SoIll 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-2
92.1%
Jimmy Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoIll 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+3
92.3%
Sam Straub pass complete to Daquan Isom for 3 yds to the SoIll 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+4
92.4%
Lane Reazin punt for 46 yds , John Williams returns for 4 yds to the Memph 38 SOUTHN ILLINOIS Penalty, illegal participation (Craig James) to the Memph 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:0591% → 93%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
91.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 16 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
91.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 2 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
91.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+19
91.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to John Williams for 19 yds to the SoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
92.0%
TAYLOR, Patrick rush for 1 yard to the SIU33 (Reed, Airan), PENALTY MEM holding 10 yards to the SIU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
91.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+4
91.5%
Anthony Miller run for 4 yds to the SoIll 40Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 16
OPP 40
+26
91.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 26 yds to the SoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
92.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoIll 12Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+3
92.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sean Dykes for 3 yds to the SoIll 9Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
92.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 9 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:269% → 8%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
91.5%
Daquan Isom run for no gain to the SoIll 33Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
91.6%
Daquan Isom run for 1 yd to the SoIll 34Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
91.4%
Sam Straub pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+2
91.6%
Lane Reazin punt for 55 yds , John Williams returns for 2 yds to the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
91.8%
HENDERSON, D. rush for 8 yards to the MEM21 (Neal, Ryan), PENALTY SIU offside defense (Sullivan, Chuck) 5 yards to the MEM18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 5
OWN 18
-5
91.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 13Similar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
91.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 12 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
91.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
91.4%
Spencer Smith punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the SoIll 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
90.0%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to Darrell James, broken up by Christian SlaughterSimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
90.0%
Daquan Isom run for 7 yds to the SoIll 28Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 3
OWN 28
-1
90.0%
Daquan Isom run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoIll 27Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
90.5%
Lane Reazin punt for 50 yds , John Williams returns for no gain to the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 3:3591% → 90%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
90.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+13
90.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 13 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
90.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 10 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
91.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+21
91.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 21 yds to the SoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
91.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 6 yds to the SoIll 28Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+1
91.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoIll 27Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
91.4%
Anthony Miller run for 2 yds to the SoIll 25Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+6
91.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
91.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoIll 18Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
91.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for no gain to the SoIll 18Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
91.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Joey Magnifico, broken up by Ryan NealSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
90.4%
Spencer Smith 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 0:5510% → 19%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
89.6%
D.J. Davis run for 6 yds to the SoIll 41Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
88.7%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to D.J. DavisSimilar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+19
88.9%
Sam Straub pass complete to Raphael Leonard for 19 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
88.3%
Sam Straub pass complete to Raphael Leonard for 7 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+33
81.2%
Sam Straub pass complete to Darrell James for 33 yds for a TD, (Matt Sotiropoulos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:2685% → 84%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
84.7%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+7
83.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 7 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+13
83.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 13 yds to the SoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
85.6%
Riley Ferguson run for no gain to the SoIll 48Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
84.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1384% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.5%
Riley Ferguson run for 15 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
84.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 6 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-15
85.0%
MILLER, Anthony rush for 7 yards to the SIU47 (Neal, Ryan), PENALTY MEM personal foul (54) 15 yards to the MEM31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 31
+55
83.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to John Williams for 55 yds to the SoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
90.4%
Darrell Henderson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Spencer Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
88.3%
Daquan Isom run for 1 yd to the SoIll 16Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
88.5%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to Connor IwemaSimilar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+4
88.9%
Sam Straub pass complete to Daquan Isom for 4 yds to the SoIll 20Similar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+3
89.2%
Lane Reazin punt for 49 yds , John Williams returns for 3 yds to the Memph 23 MEMPHIS Penalty, illegal block (Caelon Harden) to the Memph 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:1288% → 90%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
88.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 9 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+10
88.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 10 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
89.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+14
89.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 14 yds to the SoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
89.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoIll 35Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+17
89.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 17 yds to the SoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
89.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoIll 16Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+3
89.7%
Riley Ferguson run for 3 yds to the SoIll 13Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
89.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the SoIll 13Similar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
89.8%
Riley Patterson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 18FG
20 plays · 60 yds · 8:4212% → 22%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
88.3%
Jonathan Mixon run for 3 yds to the SoIll 29Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
88.0%
Jonathan Mixon run for 3 yds to the SoIll 32Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+15
88.4%
Straub, Sam pass incomplete to Leonard, Raphae, PENALTY MEM pass interference (SLAUGHTER, C.) 15 yards to the SIU47, 1ST DOWN SIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
86.9%
Jonathan Mixon run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 7
50
+7
86.6%
Sam Straub pass complete to Raphael Leonard for 7 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
86.6%
Jonathan Mixon run for 1 yd to the Memph 42Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+7
86.6%
Sam Straub pass complete to Jake Varble for 7 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
86.5%
Jonathan Mixon run for 1 yd to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+7
87.5%
Sam Straub run for 7 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
85.6%
Jonathan Mixon run for 7 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+2
85.6%
Sam Straub pass complete to Hans Carmien for 2 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 1
OPP 18
-5
86.4%
SOUTHN ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Jack White) to the Memph 23Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+5
86.4%
Sam Straub run for 5 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+1
87.2%
Sam Straub run for 1 yd to the Memph 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
85.6%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to Darrell JamesSimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
85.7%
Jonathan Mixon run for 3 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q3 0:31
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
79.8%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to Raphael LeonardSimilar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
78.3%
Matt Sotiropoulos 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:059% → 8%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.5%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to Jake VarbleSimilar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to Darrell JamesSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
92.1%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to Raphael LeonardSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.5%
Lane Reazin punt for 44 yds , John Williams returns for 1 yd to the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:1192% → 97%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
91.7%
Darrell Henderson run for 8 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+12
92.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 12 yds to the SoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Joey MagnificoSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+20
92.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 20 yds to the SoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
92.7%
Darrell Henderson run for 5 yds to the SoIll 23Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-7
92.7%
Riley Ferguson run for a loss of 7 yards to the SoIll 30Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+12
92.1%
Riley Ferguson run for 12 yds to the SoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
92.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoIll 14Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
92.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
92.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Torian LewisSimilar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
96.6%
Spencer Smith 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 22TD
16 plays · 56 yds · 5:316% → 25%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
93.7%
Connor Iwema pass incomplete to Darrell JamesSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
93.7%
Sam Straub pass complete to Connor Iwema for 7 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+5
93.7%
MEMPHIS Penalty, offside defense (Genard Avery) to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
93.6%
D.J. Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+9
93.7%
Sam Straub pass complete to Jake Varble for 9 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+12
93.6%
Sam Straub pass complete to D.J. Davis for 12 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
92.7%
Sam Straub pass complete to Jimmy Jones for 9 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+3
92.7%
Sam Straub pass complete to Darrell James for 3 yds to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
92.7%
Sam Straub pass complete to D.J. Davis for 6 yds to the Memph 8Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 4
OPP 8
0
92.7%
D.J. Davis run for no gain to the Memph 8Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-5
93.3%
SOUTHN ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Jack White) to the Memph 13Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+10
93.5%
Sam Straub pass complete to Connor Iwema for 10 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
92.7%
Jonathan Mixon run for 2 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.7%
Jonathan Mixon run for no gain to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.3%
Sam Straub pass complete to Jaylon Graham for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Sotiropoulos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:2590% → 99%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
89.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+16
89.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 16 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
91.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 5 yds to the SoIll 47Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+1
91.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the SoIll 46Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+14
94.2%
Anthony Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoIll 47 for a 1ST down SOUTHN ILLINOIS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Torian Lewis) to the SoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
94.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoIll 28Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+22
95.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 22 yds to the SoIll 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Spencer Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 1:053% → 2%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
97.5%
Sam Straub pass complete to Connor Iwema for 11 yds to the SoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
97.6%
Sam Straub pass complete to D.J. Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the SoIll 45Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
97.6%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to D.J. DavisSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+28
97.7%
Sam Straub pass complete to Connor Iwema for 13 yds to the MEMPHIS 42 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, roughing passer (Tim Hart) to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.6%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to Darrell JamesSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+12
96.8%
Sam Straub pass complete to Connor Iwema for 12 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
96.6%
Sam Straub pass complete to Jimmy Jones for 6 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
98.0%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to Darrell James, broken up by La'Andre ThomasSimilar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
98.1%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to Connor Iwema, broken up by Austin HallSimilar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 4
OPP 9
0
98.2%
Sam Straub pass incomplete to D.J. DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:51
Sam Straub pass complete to Jaylon Graham for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Sotiropoulos KICK)
-17.5
TD · Q3 0:05
Nico Gualdoni kickoff for 65 yds , Tony Pollard return for 100 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)
+13.1
TD · Q2 0:36
Sam Straub pass complete to Darrell James for 33 yds for a TD, (Matt Sotiropoulos KICK)
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com