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CIN

Cincinnati 32 at Navy 42

NAVY
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:11 · Bennett Moehring 24 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense+5.4Pregame prior+8.3Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:10: Josh Brown run for 24 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) CINCINNATI Penalty, illegal participation ( Yards) declined — NAVY win probability +8.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:45: Gerrid Doaks run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +11.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:52: Josh Brown run for 39 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:01: Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +10.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:29: Zach Abey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:34CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:20CIN 4th & 6 at NAVY 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:11NAVY 4th & 6 at CIN 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:01CIN 4th & 5 at NAVY 5, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−6.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:29CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.5%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00CIN 4th & 16 at CIN 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:06CIN 4th & 2 at NAVY 3, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−<0.1
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:06NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:34NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:56NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:05CIN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:10NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:45CIN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:52NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:01CIN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:29NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:07NAVY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:06CIN Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
66.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
66.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
66.6%
James Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 5:2667% → 69%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-8
66.5%
Tre Walker run for 7 yds to the Navy 33 NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Chris High) to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 18
OWN 18
+12
66.5%
Chris High run for 12 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-1
66.5%
Jahmaal Daniel run for 9 yds to the Navy 39 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (Jake Hawk) to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
66.5%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Craig ScottSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+12
66.4%
Tre Walker run for 12 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
66.6%
Jahmaal Daniel run for 7 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+3
66.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
66.7%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
66.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
66.7%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
66.8%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+7
66.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 7 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
69.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 23 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
68.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
68.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
68.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete, broken up by Sean WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
68.8%
James Smith punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:4769% → 74%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
69.1%
Chris High run for 9 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
69.3%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
69.3%
Tre Walker run for no gain to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+19
69.2%
Tre Walker run for 19 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
69.4%
Zach Abey run for 9 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+19
74.3%
Zach Abey pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 19 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5128% → 32%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
72.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 9 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
72.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+16
72.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 16 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
67.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 46 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 51 yds · 0:0069% → 70%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
69.3%
Chris High run for 8 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+4
69.5%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+26
69.5%
Tre Walker run for 26 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
70.4%
Jahmaal Daniel run for 11 yds to the Cincy 34 Jahmaal Daniel fumbled, forced by Carter Jacobs, recovered by Cincy Chris MurphySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:5231% → 34%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
69.0%
Kahlil Lewis run for 9 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-5
68.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (David Niehaus) to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
68.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 7 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
68.5%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete to ROLLINS, Jerron, PENALTY CIN pass interference (COGSWELL, Tyler) 15 yards to the CIN30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+2
69.4%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 32
+14
69.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 14 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+31
69.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 31 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
67.3%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
67.3%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
68.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas Geddis, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
65.9%
Josh Pasley 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 5:1067% → 77%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
66.6%
Tre Walker run for 4 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+13
66.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 13 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
67.6%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
67.8%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+7
67.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 7 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
68.1%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+10
68.1%
Chris High run for 10 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
68.4%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
76.6%
Josh Brown run for 24 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) CINCINNATI Penalty, illegal participation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 2:2525% → 38%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
74.8%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+7
75.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 7 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas Geddis, broken up by Elijah MerchantSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+19
74.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 19 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+46
73.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JJ Pinckney for 46 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
72.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+9
62.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10MISSED FG
16 plays · 78 yds · 4:3467% → 70%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
67.4%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+8
67.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+37
66.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 22 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Carter Jacobs) to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
69.8%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+12
69.7%
Josh Brown run for 12 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
69.9%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+15
69.9%
John Brown III run for 15 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
69.9%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
71.3%
Chris High run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 4Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-13
70.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Cincy 2 NAVY Penalty, illegal block (Robert Lindsey) to the Cincy 17Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+11
69.0%
Zach Abey run for 11 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
69.6%
Bennett Moehring 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
70.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:0870% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
69.6%
John Brown III run for 9 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+9
70.4%
Chris High run for 9 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
81.0%
Josh Brown run for 39 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:5121% → 33%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
77.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 3 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
78.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 2 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+16
78.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 16 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
77.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 9 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
76.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Michael Warren IISimilar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+21
76.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 21 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
75.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+1
75.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+6
76.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 6 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
75.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q3 13:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
75.8%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 5Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
66.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:3271% → 88%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
70.6%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 3 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+8
70.7%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 8 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
71.4%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
72.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
71.9%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
72.8%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
73.4%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
72.9%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+34
73.4%
Zach Abey pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 34 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
74.1%
Josh Brown run for 4 yds to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Carter Jacobs) to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.2%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Cincy 1Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.2%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 2:2913% → 11%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
86.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
87.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+5
86.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 5 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+1
86.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
85.7%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-7
85.9%
Hayden Moore sacked by D.J. Palmore for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 32
0
88.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
88.7%
James Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 4:4189% → 98%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
88.7%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+17
88.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Bryan Wright) to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
89.4%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+8
89.3%
Chris High run for 8 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
89.5%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+22
89.4%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 22 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
89.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+16
89.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 16 yds to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.7%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 4:013% → 9%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
96.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 17 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
96.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 9 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
96.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for no gain to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+7
96.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JJ Pinckney for 7 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
96.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Jerron RollinsSimilar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
96.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+25
96.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 25 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
95.9%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+11
96.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JaQuay Savage for 11 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
95.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+9
95.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 9 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-1
96.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 3Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+3
90.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 3 yds for a TD, (H. Moore Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.0%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
91.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
91.6%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
91.0%
Owen White punt for 35 yds, downed at the Cincy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19FUMBLE
9 plays · 42 yds · 1:328% → 5%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+27
92.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 27 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
91.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Gerrid DoaksSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
91.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Michael Warren II for 15 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
90.1%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+10
90.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 10 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
90.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
90.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Sean WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 10
OPP 11
-10
95.4%
Hayden Moore sacked by Tyris Wooten for a loss of 10 yards to the Navy 21 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by Navy D.J. Palmore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20END OF GAME
6 plays · 67 yds · 0:4696% → 97%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
95.9%
Zach Abey run for 13 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
96.1%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+53
96.7%
Zach Abey run for 53 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 10Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:45
Gerrid Doaks run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q3 13:52
Josh Brown run for 39 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
+10.6
TD · Q3 9:01
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com