2017 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2017 · Raymond James Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:28 · Alex Starzyk punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Temp 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:53: Darius Tice run for 47 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +1.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:55: Quinton Flowers run for 22 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +4.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:45: Emilio Nadelman 28 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +2.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:47: Darius Tice run for 3 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +5.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:23: Emilio Nadelman 37 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 13TEM made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 13:09TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snapGo for it12.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.6%average punt
- Q1 11:13USF 4th & 6 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 86.9% before the snapGo for it86.9%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:59USF 4th & 24 at TEM 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snapGo for it85.9%−0.27% to convertField goalTheir call86.1%62% to makePunt85.7%−0.4average punt
- Q1 5:56TEM 4th & 12 at TEM 35, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it13.8%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.1%average punt
- Q1 3:54TEM 4th & 6 at USF 35, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.0%40% to convertField goal14.9%−0.145% to makePunt14.8%−0.3average punt
- Q1 2:00USF 4th & 12 at TEM 48, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snapGo for it83.8%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.1%average punt
- Q1 0:39TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 11, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it15.0%−0.624% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.5%average punt
- Q2 12:50TEM 4th & 17 at TEM 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snapGo for it12.6%−0.713% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.3%average punt
- Q2 10:43USF 4th & 11 at USF 42, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snapGo for it85.0%−0.826% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.8%average punt
- Q2 8:45USF 4th & 2 at TEM 2, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.1%48% to convertField goal85.2%−0.994% to makePunt81.7%−4.4average punt
- Q2 7:28TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 6, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snapGo for it12.2%−0.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.8%average punt
- Q2 4:45USF 4th & 2 at TEM 10, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snapGo for it92.1%55% to convertField goalTheir call91.3%−0.888% to makePunt87.5%−4.6average punt
- Q2 2:32TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 32, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q2 0:31USF 4th & 4 at TEM 49, up 13Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snapGo for it90.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 13:47USF 4th & 8 at USF 27, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it89.6%−0.733% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.3%average punt
- Q3 8:58USF 4th & 8 at TEM 8, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.6%−0.226% to convertField goalTheir call96.7%90% to makePunt94.8%−1.9average punt
- Q3 7:23USF 4th & 4 at TEM 20, up 23Close callKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snapGo for it97.0%47% to convertField goalTheir call96.9%−0.175% to makePunt95.6%−1.3average punt
- Q3 4:37TEM 4th & 10 at midfield, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 3:06USF 4th & 9 at USF 21, up 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q3 1:45TEM 4th & 12 at TEM 45, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 12:33USF 4th & 8 at TEM 27, up 26Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%62% to makePunt99.0%−0.6average punt
- Q4 10:46TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 8, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:59TEM 4th & 25 at USF 49, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:09USF 4th & 4 at USF 37, up 36Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 14:53USF Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.9%97% to makeGo for two86.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:55USF Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.3%97% to makeGo for two90.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:47USF Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.8%97% to makeGo for two94.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:45USF Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:4510% → 10%
USFDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5190% → 89%
TEMDrive 3INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
89.3%
Logan Marchi pass intercepted Deatrick Nichols return for no gain to the Temp 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4FG7 plays · -1 yds · 2:0490% → 89%
Q1 10:01
2ND & 18
OPP 21
-5
89.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (William Atterbury) to the Temp 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5FUMBLE9 plays · 17 yds · 2:5111% → 12%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
88.9%
Logan Marchi sacked by Mike Love for a loss of 5 yards to the Temp 13Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+19
88.8%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 19 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+11
88.5%
Alex Starzyk punt blocked by Elkanah Dillon blocked by Elkanah Dillon Craig Watts fumbled, recovered by Temp Jacob MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6DOWNS5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5512% → 12%
USFDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4488% → 87%
Q1 2:00
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
86.8%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Mike Jones at the Temp 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1413% → 13%
USFDrive 9TD4 plays · 54 yds · 0:4687% → 89%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
87.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (William Atterbury) to the SFla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5611% → 11%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
88.7%
Todd Centeio sacked by Auggie Sanchez and Mike Love for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 29Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 17
OWN 29
-5
89.0%
Todd Centeio sacked by Auggie Sanchez for a loss of 5 yards to the Temp 24Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
89.3%
Alex Starzyk punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:0089% → 88%
Q2 12:23
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-15
89.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Quinton Flowers) to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 21
OWN 32
-4
88.4%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 28 Quinton Flowers fumbled, recovered by SFla D'Ernest JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 25
OWN 28
+24
88.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 24 yds to the Temp 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:5011% → 11%
USFDrive 13DOWNS4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5589% → 88%
Q2 9:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
88.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 4 yds to the Temp 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0311% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD2 plays · 25 yds · 0:2589% → 94%
TEMDrive 16FUMBLE2 plays · 14 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
92.0%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 14 yds Adonis Jennings fumbled, forced by Deatrick Nichols, recovered by SFla Tajee FullwoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17FG6 plays · 39 yds · 1:5494% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 2:015% → 4%
Q2 3:13
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+17
95.8%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Randle Jones for 17 yds to the Temp 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.5%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Ventell Bryant, broken up by Mazzi WilkinsSimilar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+5
95.9%
Alex Starzyk punt for 38 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 5 yds to the SFla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19FUMBLE TD2 plays · 9 yds · 0:2097% → 92%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
50
+44
92.4%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Jacob Martin for a loss of 6 yards Quinton Flowers fumbled, forced by J. Martin, recovered by J. Martin , return for 44 yds for TD (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 1:2392% → 92%
TEMDrive 21END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1091% → 91%
Q3 13:47
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-2
90.6%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 47 yds , Mike Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3210% → 10%
USFDrive 24TD4 plays · 20 yds · 1:1292% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25FUMBLE2 plays · -3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
96.2%
Matt Hennessy run for a loss of 3 yards to the Temp 22 Matt Hennessy fumbled, recovered by SFlaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26FG8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3097% → 97%
TEMDrive 27INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.4%
Logan Marchi pass intercepted Nico Sawtelle return for 10 yds to the Temp 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28FG4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0898% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 29PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:271% → 1%
Q3 6:03
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+14
99.4%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 30PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
Q3 3:06
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+19
99.4%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 51 yds , Mike Jones returns for 19 yds to the Temp 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 31PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:140% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 32FG13 plays · 56 yds · 4:04100% → 100%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
99.5%
Flowers, Quinton pass complete to McCants, Tyre for 11 yards to the SOUFLA39, PENALTY SOUFLA holding 10 yards to the SOUFLA18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+11
99.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 11 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+15
99.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 15 yds to the Temp 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 33PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:210% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 34TD10 plays · 49 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
Q4 9:25
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+15
99.9%
Flowers, Quinton pass incomplete to McCants, Tyre, PENALTY TEMPLE pass interference (Franklin, Sam) 15 yards to the TEMPLE18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q4 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 5 yds to the Temp 1Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
TEMPLE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sam Franklin) to the Temp 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 35PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 4:240% → 0%
Q4 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+12
99.9%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Freddie Johnson for 12 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-7
99.9%
Frank Nutile sacked by Mazzi Wilkins and Vincent Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 25
OPP 49
+8
100.0%
Alex Starzyk punt for 39 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 8 yds to the SFla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 36END OF GAME9 plays · 46 yds · 2:39100% → 100%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
50
+15
100.0%
TEMPLE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jyquis Thomas) to the Temp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:47
Darius Tice run for 3 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
+5
TD · Q2 6:55
Quinton Flowers run for 22 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
+4.2
FG · Q2 4:45
Emilio Nadelman 28 yd FG GOOD
+2.1