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TLSA

Tulsa 51 at Toledo 54

TOL
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:15 · Bailey Flint punt for 53 yds, downed at the Tulsa 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior+21.8Home team on offense−1.4Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 12:07: Chad President run for 39 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +31.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:18: Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 49 yds for a TD, (Logan Woodside pass to Jordan Fisher for Two-Point Conversion) — TOL win probability +37.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:04: Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 74 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +28.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:47: Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +32.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Jameson Vest 33 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +32.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00TLSA 4th & 1 at TOL 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.6%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:15TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:46TLSA 4th & 1 at TOL 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 5 at TLSA 37, down 14
    Close callPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%−0.6
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:52TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:24TOL 4th & 1 at TLSA 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    47.1%−2.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:05TLSA 4th & 1 at TOL 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.6%−3.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:10TLSA 4th & 1 at TOL 8, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%−3.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−13.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:48TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−1.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−6.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:14TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−2.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:58TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.1%−4.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:34TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:23TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:21TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:17TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:01TLSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:28TOL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 14:05TOL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:55TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:13TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:56TLSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:07TLSA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−1.0
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 10:18TOL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    49.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    49.5%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 8:04TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.6
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 2:47TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1TD
19 plays · 77 yds · 5:2626% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
74.5%
Chad President run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+9
74.5%
Chad President pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
74.5%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 7 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+1
74.5%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 1 yd to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+4
74.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
74.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+7
74.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 7 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
74.5%
Chad President pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
74.5%
Chad President pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 9 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
74.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
74.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+9
74.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
74.5%
Chad President pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
74.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+1
74.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Toled 12Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+1
74.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
74.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
71.2%
Chad President run for 8 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1172% → 74%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
71.7%
TULSA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
73.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 60 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 0:5727% → 29%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
73.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+3
72.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
73.1%
Chad President pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+63
70.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 63 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
70.9%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 20Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+2
70.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 2 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
70.7%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
70.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 53 yds, downed at the Tulsa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
69.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 27 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
69.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
69.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
69.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-3
69.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6INT TD
7 plays · -8 yds · 2:0470% → 63%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
69.8%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+18
69.5%
Terry Swanson run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
70.2%
SWANSON, Terry rush for 2 yards to the TULSA38 (ROBINSON, S.), PENALTY TOLEDO holding 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 25
OWN 45
-15
68.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 40
OWN 30
+4
67.9%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 36
OWN 34
+37
62.8%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted for a TD Craig Suits return for 37 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
16 plays · 38 yds · 3:1763% → 61%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.8%
Art Thompkins run for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
62.8%
Art Thompkins run for 10 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
63.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 6 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-15
63.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+15
62.6%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to THOMPSON, Cody, PENALTY TULSA pass interference (WHITFIELD, M.) 15 yards to the TOLEDO44, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
63.7%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to PHILLIPS, D. for 9 yards to the TULSA47 (MITCHELL, J.), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (WEISS, Brant) 10 yards to the TOLEDO34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+9
62.8%
Art Thompkins run for 9 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+4
63.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 4 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+11
63.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
60.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
60.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+10
60.3%
Art Thompkins run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
60.6%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
60.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
15 plays · 23 yds · 1:3242% → 43%
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
58.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-5
57.9%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
58.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
58.1%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-10
58.3%
BREWER, D. rush for 4 yards to the TULSA34 (BLUE, Dedarallo), PENALTY TULSA holding (UHLES, Z.) 10 yards to the TULSA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 20
OWN 20
-4
56.7%
Chad President sacked by Olasunkanmi Adeniyi for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 24
OWN 16
-5
57.1%
PRESIDENT, C. pass incomplete to STEWART, J., PENALTY TULSA IE (BOWLING, T.) 5 yards to the TULSA11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 29
OWN 11
+15
57.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Josh Teachey) to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
56.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+10
56.6%
Chad President pass complete to Josh Stewart for 10 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
56.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
56.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-2
56.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
56.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 35 yds, downed at the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0052% → 53%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
51.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 15 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
52.4%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+8
53.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
50
+5
53.4%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
53.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
53.4%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-1
53.2%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:2453% → 67%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
46.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
46.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 2
50
+3
47.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+39
46.5%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 39 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
33.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11TD
14 plays · 95 yds · 4:2436% → 43%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
35.5%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to McKINLEY-LEWIS for 6 yards to the TOLEDO11 (MOUTON, M.), PENALTY TOLEDO illegal block (WEISS, Brant) 2 yards to the TOLEDO3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+17
35.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 17 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
35.9%
Art Thompkins run for 7 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-13
36.8%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to JOHNSON,Jon'Vea for 47 yards to the TULSA26 (THOMAS, K.), PENALTY TOLEDO illegal block (BELL, Cameron) 13 yards to the TOLEDO14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+17
35.7%
Art Thompkins run for 17 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
36.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 11 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
37.8%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+4
38.2%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
38.5%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+9
38.5%
Logan Woodside run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
38.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+10
38.5%
Art Thompkins run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
43.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 26 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
37.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
37.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5540% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
39.5%
Terry Swanson run for 17 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
41.9%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+49
55.5%
Terry Swanson run for 49 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 4:5550% → 59%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
48.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
48.6%
Chad President pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
49.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+15
48.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (DeDarallo Blue) to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
47.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+1
46.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+3
47.4%
Chad President pass complete to Chris Minter for 3 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+17
49.1%
Chad President run for 17 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
46.6%
Chad President run for 5 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-2
46.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 14 D'Angelo Brewer fumbled, recovered by Tulsa D'Angelo BrewerSimilar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+6
47.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+25
41.2%
Redford Jones 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+81
57.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 81 yds for a TD TULSA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
55.1%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+15
55.4%
PRESIDENT, C. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, K., PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (TEACHEY, Josh) 15 yards to the TULSA36, 1ST DOWN TULSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
53.9%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+1
55.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+3
56.3%
Chad President run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 38 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
56.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:2358% → 73%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
57.7%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
59.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
50
+2
60.2%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+12
60.4%
Art Thompkins run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
60.6%
Art Thompkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+23
59.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 23 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
62.0%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
62.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
72.8%
Cody Thompson 15 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Team PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1730% → 52%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
69.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+48
68.5%
Chad President run for 48 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
63.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
63.6%
Chad President pass incomplete to Chris Minter, broken up by McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+5
65.2%
PRESIDENT, C. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, K., PENALTY TOLEDO offside defense (ADENIYI, O.) 5 yards to the TOLEDO8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+5
65.2%
Chad President run for 5 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
63.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
48.1%
Josh Teachey return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5056% → 52%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
56.0%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
58.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-10
55.1%
Logan Woodside sacked by Petera Wilson Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 26
0
51.5%
Michael Julian punt for 44 yds, downed at the Tulsa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:4447% → 79%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
52.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
52.4%
Chad President pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+20
53.5%
Chad President pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 20 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
49.1%
BREWER, D. rush for 43 yards to the TOLEDO3 (WHITFIELD, M.), PENALTY TULSA holding (UHLES, Z.) 10 yards to the TULSA44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 20
OWN 44
0
52.1%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+17
52.5%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 17 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+39
21.1%
Chad President run for 39 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:4327% → 66%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
27.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 11 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
28.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 4 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
30.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+9
28.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
65.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 49 yds for a TD, (Logan Woodside pass to Jordan Fisher for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
56.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
56.3%
Chad President run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-2
57.0%
Chad President sacked by Ja'Wuan Woodley for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
59.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
87.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 74 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 5:1117% → 55%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
83.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 19 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
81.6%
Chad President pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
81.8%
Chad President run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+4
81.7%
Chad President pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 4 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+3
82.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
50
-2
79.3%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+4
81.5%
Chad President pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 4 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+15
81.2%
PRESIDENT, C. pass incomplete to STEWART, J., PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (NORWOOD, Chris) 15 yards to the TOLEDO33, 1ST DOWN TULSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
77.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 17 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
76.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+3
76.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+3
79.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
76.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Toled 1Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25FG
16 plays · 59 yds · 2:4758% → 95%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.9%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
58.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 3 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
56.6%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to THOMPSON, Cody, PENALTY TULSA pass interference (WHITFIELD, M.) 7 yards to the TOLEDO37, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
59.8%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+15
63.1%
TULSA Penalty, personal foul (Kerwin Thomas) to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
64.2%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+18
63.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 18 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
65.5%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
65.4%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+33
95.4%
Jameson Vest 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:18
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 49 yds for a TD, (Logan Woodside pass to Jordan Fisher for Two-Point Conversion)
+37.4
TD · Q4 2:47
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-32.3
FG · Q4 0:00
Jameson Vest 33 yd FG GOOD
+32.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com