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CIN

Cincinnati 21 at Miami (OH) 17

M-OH
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.2M-OH 60.1%Josh Pasley 41 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 5:12
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Q1 5:12 · Josh Pasley 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense−0.8Pregame prior+9.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:37: Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 24 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +2.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:55: Kenny Young run for 1 yd for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +13.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:52: Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 20 yds for a TD, (Hayden Moore pass to Kahlil Lewis for Two-Point Conversion) — CIN win probability +22.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:07: Gus Ragland pass intercepted for a TD Malik Clements return for 14 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +65.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:07: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19 — CIN win probability +17.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 8 of 10CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 20 at M-OH 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:12CIN 4th & 19 at M-OH 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.6
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:31CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:50M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 39, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:12CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 18, down 4
    Close callPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:48M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:23CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:21M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:45CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:17M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:53CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.7%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:00CIN 4th & 10 at M-OH 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:00M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−2.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00M-OH 4th & 6 at midfield, up 11
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:38CIN 4th & 4 at M-OH 19, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.0%−0.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−5.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:45M-OH 4th & 11 at CIN 19, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−5.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:30M-OH 4th & 5 at CIN 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%−5.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−11.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 3:37M-OH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:55M-OH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:52CIN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    13.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.4%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:07CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
60.9%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+4
60.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for 4 yds to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+6
60.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Martin for 6 yds to the MiaOh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
60.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 5 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+15
60.9%
RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete to MARTIN, Sam, PENALTY CIN pass interference (STEPHENS, L.) 15 yards to the MIAMI37, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
60.9%
Maurice Thomas run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-5
60.9%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+2
60.9%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-11
60.9%
Gus Ragland sacked by Kevin Mouhon for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 27
0
60.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 5:1539% → 40%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
60.7%
MIAMI OH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
60.4%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
60.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete, broken up by Doug CostinSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+10
60.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 10 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
60.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+7
60.3%
Hayden Moore run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
60.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
60.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
60.2%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+15
60.4%
MOORE, Hayden sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MIAMI40 (KOENIG, Brad), fumble by MOORE, Hayden recovered by MIAMI TEAM at MIAMI40, PENALTY MIAMI personal foul (COSTIN, Doug) 15 yards to the MIAMI15, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
60.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 2 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
60.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Tony ReidSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 8
OPP 13
-11
60.3%
Hayden Moore sacked by Pasquale Calcagno for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 19
OPP 24
+41
60.1%
Josh Pasley 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 1:2959% → 63%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+55
59.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for 55 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
60.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 16 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
60.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Sam Martin, broken up by Grant ColemanSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-10
60.9%
RAGLAND, Gus pass complete to MAYOCK, Luke for 14 yards to the CIN0, clock 03:45, PENALTY MIAMI holding (DIAMOND, Jordan) 10 yards to the CIN24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+24
63.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 24 yds for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
62.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
62.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 12 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for no gain to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-4
61.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 38Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 14
OWN 38
0
62.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
62.9%
James Smith punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3862% → 61%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
62.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for 4 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+3
62.1%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-5
61.7%
Gus Ragland sacked by Marquise Copeland for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
61.1%
Kyle Kramer punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6INT
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:0038% → 39%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
61.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 19 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
60.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
60.7%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+9
61.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 9 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
60.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JJ Pinckney for 9 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 28
0
60.0%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+1
60.6%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
60.0%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
60.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Gerrid DoaksSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+12
60.8%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted De'Andre Montgomery return for 12 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.6%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
62.4%
Kenny Young run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
62.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for 6 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
63.6%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
63.3%
Leonard Ross run for no gain to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
62.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 51 yds, downed at the Cincy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
63.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
63.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+4
64.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JaQuay Savage for 4 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
64.5%
James Smith punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
65.3%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke Mayock, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
64.6%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Sam Martin, broken up by Tyrell GilbertSimilar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
63.7%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
62.5%
Kyle Kramer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Devin Gray at the Cincy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
63.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete, broken up by Doug CostinSimilar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
63.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
63.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for no gain to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+6
64.6%
James Smith punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 38 , Jared Murphy returns for 6 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
65.1%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Maurice Thomas, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
64.8%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+6
63.9%
Gus Ragland run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+4
63.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 4 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
63.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Devin Gray at the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
63.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to JaQuay SavageSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-3
63.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JaQuay Savage for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 10Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+8
64.7%
Hayden Moore run for 8 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
65.4%
James Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:0666% → 65%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
66.2%
Gus Ragland sacked by Kevin Mouhon for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 17
OWN 35
-1
64.4%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 18
OWN 34
-5
64.5%
MIAMI OH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 23
OWN 29
+13
64.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 13 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
64.5%
Kyle Kramer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Devin Gray at the Cincy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
68.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by De'Andre MontgomerySimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+9
69.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 9 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 1
OWN 21
-5
69.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 16Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+2
69.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
63.7%
Hayden Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
63.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
64.9%
Hayden Moore run for no gain to the Cincy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 3:2569% → 81%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
68.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 6 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+16
68.7%
Kenny Young run for 16 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
68.7%
Kenny Young run for 8 yds to the Cincy 4Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 2
OPP 4
0
68.7%
Gus Ragland run for no gain to the Cincy 4Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
67.6%
Kenny Young run for 3 yds to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.0%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd for a TD, (Samuel Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 2:3521% → 20%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
78.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (-9 Yards) to the Cincy 9Similar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+9
79.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 9 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
79.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 5 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+13
79.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 13 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
78.2%
Hayden Moore run for 7 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+27
77.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 27 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
75.5%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
75.1%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-5
76.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (David Niehaus) to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
77.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Michael Warren IISimilar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
80.2%
Josh Pasley 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
81.2%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-3
81.6%
Gus Ragland run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 31 Gus Ragland fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Gus RaglandSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
80.5%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Sam Martin, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
79.7%
Kyle Kramer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Devin Gray at the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19INT
10 plays · 65 yds · 0:0020% → 22%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
80.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 15 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
79.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
78.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
78.2%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete to LEWIS, Kahlil, PENALTY MIAMI holding (ALLEN, Josh) 10 yards to the MIAMI36, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
78.2%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+5
76.7%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
76.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to JJ Pinckney for 19 yds to the MiaOh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
76.7%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the MiaOh 6Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
76.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 7Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+46
78.0%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Cedric Asseh return for 46 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5086% → 86%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
86.4%
Maurice Thomas run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 6
50
0
86.4%
Kenny Young run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
50
0
86.7%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Kenny YoungSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
50
0
85.8%
Kyle Kramer punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:0815% → 18%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
84.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 9 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
83.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
83.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
83.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 4 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+6
83.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
82.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 5 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+24
81.8%
Michael Warren II run for 24 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Doug CostinSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
80.8%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
81.7%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
81.8%
Josh Pasley 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22FG
17 plays · 60 yds · 6:4886% → 94%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
85.6%
Maurice Thomas run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
86.2%
Kenny Young run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
85.8%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
85.6%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+22
85.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 22 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
87.8%
Kenny Young run for 5 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
87.8%
Gus Ragland run for 6 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
87.9%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+2
87.9%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+12
87.1%
RAGLAND, Gus sacked for loss of 3 yards to the CIN33 (COPELAND, M.), PENALTY CIN personal foul (YOUNG, Perry) 12 yards to the CIN18, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
87.9%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 12
OPP 20
-1
87.9%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+2
94.3%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+37
94.3%
Samuel Sloman 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:535% → 29%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Gerrid Doaks, broken up by Brad KoenigSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 9 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
94.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 8 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
94.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 4 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+29
94.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 29 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
93.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 5 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
93.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Michael Warren IISimilar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
70.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 20 yds for a TD, (Hayden Moore pass to Kahlil Lewis for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24INT TD
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4285% → 20%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
85.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 5 yds to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+3
86.5%
Kenny Young run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 2
OWN 13
-5
85.5%
MIAMI OH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+14
19.7%
Gus Ragland pass intercepted for a TD Malik Clements return for 14 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 55 yds · 0:3223% → 23%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.5%
Gus Ragland run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+23
23.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Luke Mayock for 23 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
27.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke Mayock, broken up by Grant ColemanSimilar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+23
27.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Martin for 23 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
35.3%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Sam MartinSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
29.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Martin for 5 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
31.4%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Luke MayockSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 5
OPP 20
0
23.1%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
5.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:07
Gus Ragland pass intercepted for a TD Malik Clements return for 14 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)
-65.8
TD · Q4 2:52
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 20 yds for a TD, (Hayden Moore pass to Kahlil Lewis for Two-Point Conversion)
-22.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:07
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19
-17.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com