2017 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2017 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreMASS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:43 · Austin Jones 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:29: Andrew Ford pass complete to Nick Orekoya for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK) — MASS win probability +10.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:04: Logan Marchi pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 30 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +7.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:56: Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 20 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK) — MASS win probability +15.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- FG · Q3 1:52: Austin Jones 37 Yd Field Goal — TEM win probability +7.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:41: Andrew Ford run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK) — MASS win probability +11.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 11MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:43TEM 4th & 3 at MASS 8, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snapGo for it82.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call82.8%−0.190% to makePunt82.4%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:03MASS 4th & 6 at TEM 6, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snapGo for it18.1%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call18.2%91% to makePunt17.3%−0.9average punt
- Q1 6:24TEM 4th & 22 at TEM 8, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snapGo for it80.5%−0.67% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.1%average punt
- Q1 4:35MASS 4th & 27 at MASS 22, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snapGo for it17.8%−0.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%average punt
- Q1 1:23TEM 4th & 7 at MASS 38, up 3Close callPunted · 80.0% before the snapGo for it80.1%37% to convertField goal79.9%−0.238% to makePuntTheir call79.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 0:00MASS 4th & 14 at MASS 16, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snapGo for it18.9%−0.817% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.7%average punt
- Q2 13:45TEM 4th & 1 at MASS 37, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.5%70% to convertField goal78.5%−1.040% to makePunt78.5%−1.0average punt
- Q2 11:35TEM 4th & 5 at MASS 26, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snapGo for it78.7%41% to convertField goalTheir call78.7%−<0.164% to makePunt76.6%−2.1average punt
- Q2 8:53MASS 4th & 5 at TEM 22, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.7% before the snapGo for it22.4%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call22.5%72% to makePunt19.5%−3.0average punt
- Q2 4:49TEM 4th & 18 at TEM 35, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snapGo for it74.4%−1.912% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.2%average punt
- Q2 1:16TEM 4th & 3 at MASS 29, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.1%52% to convertField goal67.7%−0.458% to makePunt63.6%−4.5average punt
- Q3 13:48MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 35, down 9Close callPunted · 16.9% before the snapGo for it17.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%−0.2average punt
- Q3 10:18TEM 4th & 10 at MASS 34, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snapGo for it83.7%−0.330% to convertField goalTheir call84.0%47% to makePunt83.3%−0.7average punt
- Q3 7:48MASS 4th & 6 at TEM 34, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.1%40% to convertField goal12.8%−0.347% to makePunt12.3%−0.7average punt
- Q3 1:52TEM 4th & 10 at MASS 20, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snapGo for it74.4%−2.228% to convertField goalTheir call76.6%75% to makePunt65.4%−11.2average punt
- Q4 12:14MASS 4th & 14 at TEM 14, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snapGo for it10.0%−3.516% to convertField goalTheir call13.6%84% to makePunt3.5%−10.1average punt
- Q4 10:53TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 26, up 8Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snapGo for it88.1%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.9%−0.3average punt
- Q4 8:39MASS 4th & 10 at TEM 28, down 8Numbers favored field goal by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 12.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.9%−2.429% to convertField goal13.3%60% to makePunt4.5%−8.8average punt
- Q4 0:26TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 28, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it91.7%−1.436% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q2 2:29MASS Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.6%97% to makeGo for two32.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:04TEM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.6%97% to makeGo for two76.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:10TEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call84.0%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:56MASS Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.0%97% to makeGo for two21.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:48TEM Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 1:41MASS Touchdown, down 9 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call4.4%−0.897% to makeGo for two5.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1FG7 plays · 65 yds · 2:0280% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2MISSED FG13 plays · 72 yds · 4:2721% → 22%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
79.1%
Andrew Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 20 Andrew Ford fumbled, recovered by UMassSimilar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+25
79.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 25 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+18
78.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 18 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 1:3278% → 77%
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
78.1%
Armstead, Ryquell rush for no gain to the TEMPLE20, PENALTY TEMPLE holding (Carter, Brian) 10 yards to the TEMPLE10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 20
OWN 10
-1
77.9%
Logan Marchi sacked by Da'Sean Downey for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 9Similar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 22
OWN 8
0
77.2%
Alex Starzyk punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Andy Isabella at the UMass 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -17 yds · 1:4922% → 22%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
77.6%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (Adam Breneman) to the UMass 34Similar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 15
OWN 34
-5
77.9%
Andrew Ford sacked by Quincy Roche for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 29Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 21
OWN 28
-6
78.1%
Andrew Ford sacked by Jacob Martin for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:5078% → 77%
MASSDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1723% → 23%
Q1 0:25
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-7
76.9%
Andrew Ford sacked by Quincy Roche for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7MISSED FG8 plays · 20 yds · 3:2577% → 76%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-6
77.3%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the Temp 42 TEMPLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brian Carter) to the Temp 48Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+11
76.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Randle Jones for 11 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+9
77.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 9 yds to the UMass 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8MISSED FG8 plays · 43 yds · 2:1925% → 26%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
75.2%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 18 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
73.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 20 yds to the Temp 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
73.0%
Andrew Ford sacked by Sharif Finch for a loss of 3 yards to the Temp 30Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-10
72.9%
Ford, Andrew pass incomplete to Dingle, Brennon, PENALTY UMASS holding (Driscoll, Jack) 10 yards to the TEMPLE37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 20
OPP 37
+15
74.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jacoby Herring for 15 yds to the Temp 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 0 yds · 3:5874% → 73%
Q2 7:56
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+5
74.3%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 5 yds to the Temp 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+4
74.3%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 4 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
74.2%
Marchi, Logan pass incomplete to Yeboah, Kenny, PENALTY UMASS pass interference (Addo, Jarell) 0 yards to the TEMPLE43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEMPLE.Similar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
75.9%
Logan Marchi sacked by Steve Casali for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 36Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 17
OWN 36
-1
73.4%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Ryquell Armstead for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 35Similar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 18
OWN 35
+1
72.5%
Alex Starzyk punt for 45 yds , Bakhari Goodson returns for 1 yd to the UMass 36 TEMPLE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Artrel Foster) to the UMass 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10TD6 plays · 64 yds · 1:5827% → 40%
TEMDrive 11TD10 plays · 73 yds · 0:5664% → 75%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
64.4%
Logan Marchi pass complete to David Hood for 12 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+25
64.9%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 25 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+7
66.2%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Chris Myarick for 7 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+4
65.2%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 4 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+30
75.1%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 30 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12FUMBLE2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
73.2%
Andrew Ford sacked by Quincy Roche for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 18 Andrew Ford fumbled, forced by Quincy Roche, recovered by Temp Quincy Roche , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13TD4 plays · 18 yds · 0:1576% → 83%
Q2 0:10
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
83.3%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 11 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5219% → 19%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
80.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 8 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q3 13:48
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+12
81.1%
Logan Laurent punt for 54 yds , Mike Jones returns for 12 yds to the Temp 47 TEMPLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Todd Centeio) to the Temp 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16FG9 plays · 53 yds · 3:1282% → 87%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
81.6%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 7 yds to the Temp 20Similar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+30
82.6%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 30 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
84.1%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 12 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17TD10 plays · 66 yds · 4:0415% → 30%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
85.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jacoby Herring for 18 yds to the Temp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-3
83.5%
Andrew Ford sacked by Isaiah Graham-Mobley for a loss of 3 yards to the Temp 36Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+12
85.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 12 yds to the Temp 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-7
84.5%
Andrew Ford sacked by Sam Franklin for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 29Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
70.1%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 20 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18FG12 plays · 44 yds · 3:4477% → 86%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
76.9%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 11 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
77.9%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 4 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+9
77.4%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 9 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+2
79.1%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 2 yds to the UMass 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19MISSED FG12 plays · 64 yds · 4:1816% → 14%
Q3 0:57
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+29
84.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 29 yds to the Temp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
81.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 11 yds to the Temp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
80.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 9 yds to the Temp 25Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+8
80.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 8 yds to the Temp 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
80.0%
Andrew Ford sacked by Michael Dogbe for a loss of 4 yards to the Temp 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0487% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21DOWNS9 plays · 37 yds · 2:0715% → 14%
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
84.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (Andy Isabella) to the UMass 30Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+17
85.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 17 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+25
83.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 25 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-10
82.3%
Ford, Andrew pass complete to Isabella, Andy for 9 yards to the TEMPLE19, PENALTY UMASS holding (Kolter, Lukas) 10 yards to the TEMPLE38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 20
OPP 38
+10
86.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 10 yds to the Temp 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22TD11 plays · 72 yds · 4:3289% → 98%
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
91.0%
Logan Marchi pass complete to David Hood for a loss of 5 yards to the Temp 34Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+16
89.6%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+29
93.4%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 29 yds to the UMass 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
98.0%
Logan Marchi pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23TD12 plays · 67 yds · 1:463% → 15%
Q4 3:12
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+3
97.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 3 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+37
97.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 37 yds to the Temp 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
96.8%
Ford, Andrew pass incomplete to Young, Marquis, PENALTY TEMPLE pass interference (Jones, Mike) 15 yards to the TEMPLE14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UMASS.Similar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+5
97.1%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 5 yds to the Temp 14Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
96.8%
Ford, Andrew pass incomplete to Isabella, Andy, PENALTY TEMPLE pass interference (Thomas, Derrek) 0 yards to the TEMPLE5, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 3 yds · 1:0896% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25END OF GAME6 plays · 44 yds · 0:205% → 5%
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+13
95.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 13 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
95.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 11 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+29
95.0%
Ross Comis sacked by Sharif Finch for a loss of 10 yards to the Temp 38 Ross Comis fumbled, forced by Sharif Finch, recovered by UMass Nick Orekoya , return for 0 yards for a 1ST down , return for 29 yds to the Temp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:56
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 20 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)
-15.5
TD · Q4 1:41
Andrew Ford run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)
-11.2
TD · Q2 2:29
Andrew Ford pass complete to Nick Orekoya for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)
-10