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ILL

Illinois 23 at South Florida 47

USF
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2017 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:36 · Blake Hayes punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScoring-chance index
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior+13.1Home team on offense+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Blowout margin+0.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Scoring-chance index−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:20: Deangelo Antoine 39 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman PAT blocked) — USF win probability +1.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:08: D'Ernest Johnson 17 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — ILL win probability +1.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:30: Mike Epstein 21 Yd pass from Jeff George Jr. (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ILL win probability +2.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:53: Emilio Nadelman 29 Yd Field Goal — ILL win probability +2.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:13: Ra'Von Bonner 1 Yd Run (Jeff George Jr. Pass to Mike Dudek for Two-Point Conversion) — ILL win probability +9.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 11:11USF 4th & 13 at ILL 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:46ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:50USF 4th & 6 at ILL 12, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:25ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 38, down 2
    Close callPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:25ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:49USF 4th & 20 at ILL 37, up 2
    Close callPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−1.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:41ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−2.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:57ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 36, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:36ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 43, down 2
    Close callPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:03USF 4th & 12 at ILL 49, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−2.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:53USF 4th & 2 at ILL 11, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%−3.9
    87% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−23.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:18USF 4th & 8 at ILL 40, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−2.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:20USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 3:4087% → 86%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
86.5%
Flowers, Quinton rush for 3 yards to the SOUFLA32, PENALTY SOUFLA illegal shift 5 yards to the SOUFLA24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+19
86.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 19 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+26
86.3%
Deangelo Antoine run for 26 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
86.3%
Johnson, D'Ernest rush for 5 yards to the ILLINOIS26, PENALTY ILLINOIS substitution infraction 5 yards to the ILLINOIS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 5
OPP 26
0
86.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to D'Ernest Johnson, broken up by Tre WatsonSimilar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+10
86.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 10 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
86.1%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Tony Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 17Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-5
86.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Cameron Ruff) to the Illin 22Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 16
OPP 22
0
85.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to D'Ernest JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 16
OPP 22
+3
85.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+36
85.5%
Emilio Nadelman 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Isaiah GaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1815% → 15%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
85.4%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-4
85.2%
Mike Epstein run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
85.2%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Louis DorseySimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
85.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 1:1885% → 86%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
85.1%
Deangelo Antoine run for 5 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+5
85.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
85.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
84.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tymir Oliver) to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+12
85.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 12 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
85.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Temi AlakaSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+39
86.0%
Deangelo Antoine 39 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman PAT blocked)Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-15
86.2%
Nadelman, Emilio kick attempt good, PENALTY SOUFLA personal foul (Munera, Nicholas) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 0
OPP 3
0
85.6%
Nate Hobbs Defensive PAT ConversionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · -3 yds · 2:0415% → 15%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
84.9%
Chayce Crouch run for 13 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
84.4%
Crouch, Chayce rush for 5 yards to the ILLINOIS43, PENALTY ILLINOIS holding (Megginson, Gabe) 10 yards to the ILLINOIS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+15
84.6%
Crouch, Chayce pass complete to Turner, Malik for loss of 1 yard to the ILLINOIS27, PENALTY SOUFLA roughing passer (Senat, Deadrin) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS. (D. Senat ejected for targeting)Similar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
84.2%
Crouch, Chayce pass incomplete to Smalling, Ricky, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Smalling, Ricky) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 25
OWN 28
-5
84.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Henry McGrew) to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 30
OWN 23
-1
84.6%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Malik Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 22Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 31
OWN 22
0
84.4%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 31
OWN 22
0
84.6%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Mike EpsteinSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 31
OWN 22
0
84.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5INT
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:0684% → 84%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
84.3%
Flowers, Quinton pass complete to Clerveaux, Stanley for 3 yards to the SOUFLA32, PENALTY ILLINOIS offside (Gay, Isaiah) 5 yards to the SOUFLA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 5
OWN 34
+13
84.4%
Darius Tice run for 13 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
84.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 12 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
84.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 46Similar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+6
84.2%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+9
84.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Temi Alaka for 9 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
84.4%
Darius Tice run for 13 yds to the Illin 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
84.3%
Johnson, D'Ernest rush for 17 yards to the ILLINOIS1, PENALTY SOUFLA holding (Atterbury, William) 10 yards to the ILLINOIS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 20
OPP 28
0
84.1%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted, touchback. Tony Adams return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5917% → 17%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
83.2%
Chayce Crouch sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+11
83.0%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Mike Dudek for 11 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-5
83.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Larry Boyd) to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+12
83.2%
Chayce Crouch pass intercepted Ronnie Hoggins return for 12 yds to the Illin 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7FG
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0084% → 83%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
83.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (William Atterbury) to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+7
83.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
83.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
83.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah DillonSimilar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
82.8%
Emilio Nadelman 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:1418% → 19%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
82.2%
Chayce Crouch run for 1 yd to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+5
82.1%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Mike Dudek for 5 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+16
81.9%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 16 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
80.9%
Epstein, Mike rush for 7 yards to the SOUFLA48, PENALTY ILLINOIS clipping (Palczewski, Alex) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+15
81.7%
Crouch, Chayce pass complete to Dudek, Mike for 6 yards to the ILLINOIS36, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Dudek, Mike) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS15, NO PLAY, PENALTY SOUFLA unnecessary roughness (Sawtelle, Nico) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.Similar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
81.4%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
81.5%
Mike Epstein run for no gain to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+8
81.6%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Malik Turner for 8 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+2
81.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 41 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 2 yds to the SFla 40 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (LaDarion McBride) to the SFla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 3:0581% → 82%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
81.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
81.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+20
80.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 20 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
81.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+43
81.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 43 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
82.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Illin 14Similar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 5
OPP 14
+2
82.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+2
82.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
81.6%
Darius Tice 10 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-15
82.0%
Nadelman, Emilio kick attempt good, PENALTY SOUFLA face mask (Munera, Nicholas) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS18, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:4020% → 20%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.6%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Louis Dorsey, broken up by Josh BlackSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+24
79.4%
Chayce Crouch run for 9 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ronnie Hoggins) to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
77.8%
Crouch, Chayce rush for 4 yards to the SOUFLA47, PENALTY ILLINOIS holding (DiLauro, Christian) 10 yards to the ILLINOIS39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+6
79.2%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Mike Epstein for 6 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 14
OWN 45
0
79.1%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Louis Dorsey, broken up by Deatrick NicholsSimilar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 14
OWN 45
0
79.4%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q2 7:25
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
80.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:2980% → 78%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
80.1%
Darius Tice run for 23 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
81.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+9
81.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
81.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Cameron Ruff) to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+5
80.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
81.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+10
80.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 10 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
81.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
81.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-5
80.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Marcus Norman) to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 15
OPP 32
0
79.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Chris BarrSimilar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 15
OPP 32
-5
78.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 20
OPP 37
0
78.1%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:2622% → 26%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.9%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Mike EpsteinSimilar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
78.1%
Mike Epstein run for 4 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+23
78.3%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 23 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
75.3%
Chayce Crouch pass complete to Mike Dudek for 8 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+45
74.4%
Mike Epstein 45 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13END OF HALF
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:1178% → 81%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
78.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 2 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
78.0%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
78.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
78.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
78.6%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
79.3%
Flowers, Quinton pass incomplete to Alaka, Temi, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Hobbs, Nate) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+32
79.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 32 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
80.6%
Quinton Flowers 6 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0423% → 22%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
76.8%
Mike Epstein run for 6 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
75.5%
Chayce Crouch pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-8
76.7%
Chayce Crouch sacked by Greg Reaves for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
78.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:3979% → 79%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
78.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
79.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
79.2%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 11
50
0
78.0%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 11
50
+20
76.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 20 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
79.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 9 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+5
79.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
79.2%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+17
79.0%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 17 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4425% → 25%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
74.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
75.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Mike Dudek for 6 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-5
74.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Alex Palczewski) to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+8
75.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Mike Dudek for 8 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+6
74.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 43 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 6 yds to the SFla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:4275% → 77%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
75.2%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Stanley Green) to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
77.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 2 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+6
77.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+8
77.0%
Darius Tice run for 8 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
78.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 11 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
78.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+5
77.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+17
76.6%
D'Ernest Johnson 17 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:2827% → 29%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Louis DorseySimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
71.2%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
70.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 7 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
68.8%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Louis DorseySimilar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
69.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Deatrick NicholsSimilar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
71.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:2473% → 70%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
72.5%
Trevon Sands run for 2 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+11
72.3%
Trevon Sands run for 11 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
72.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+10
72.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 10 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
73.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+12
72.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 12 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
75.8%
McCants, Tyre rush for 17 yards to the ILLINOIS30, PENALTY SOUFLA holding (Mayes, Eric) 10 yards to the SOUFLA43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+10
73.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 10 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
75.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-2
73.2%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Tymir Oliver for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
69.6%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:2630% → 37%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+32
69.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Louis Dorsey for 32 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+27
65.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Mike Dudek for 27 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
63.0%
Mike Epstein 21 Yd pass from Jeff George Jr. (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:3071% → 77%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
71.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 7 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-1
74.8%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+25
72.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 25 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
76.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
76.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+28
75.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 20 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (Drew Murtaugh) to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
76.9%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
76.5%
Tyre McCants 13 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:2231% → 37%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+26
69.6%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Malik Turner for 11 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ronnie Hoggins) to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+42
63.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass intercepted Tajee Fullwood return for 42 yds to the Illin 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:2176% → 72%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
76.1%
Darius Tice run for 14 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
76.0%
Darius Tice run for 9 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 1
OPP 10
-1
76.0%
Trevon Sands run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 11Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
74.2%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+29
71.8%
Emilio Nadelman 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:3131% → 41%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
68.9%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Mike EpsteinSimilar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
69.2%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+76
68.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 76 yds to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.1%
Ra'Von Bonner 1 Yd Run (Jeff George Jr. Pass to Mike Dudek for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:3973% → 76%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
73.4%
Trevon Sands run for 2 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
73.3%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Trevor Steinke, broken up by Nate HobbsSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+13
71.2%
Brett Kean pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 13 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
73.8%
Trevon Sands run for 6 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+13
76.3%
Trevon Sands run for 13 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
77.5%
Brett Kean pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 11 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
79.3%
Trevon Sands run for no gain to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-8
78.9%
Brett Kean sacked by Sean Adesanya for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 18
50
+10
75.5%
Trevon Sands run for 10 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
76.4%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 36 yds, downed at the Illin 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4030% → 20%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
70.0%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 7 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 3
OWN 11
0
69.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Ra'Von BonnerSimilar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+5
71.5%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 5 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
73.1%
Jeff George Jr. pass complete to Trenard Davis for 2 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
75.3%
Jeff George Jr. pass incomplete to Trenard Davis, broken up by Keirston JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
80.4%
Jeff George Jr. pass intercepted Keirston Johnson return for no gain to the Illin 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
90.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:13
Ra'Von Bonner 1 Yd Run (Jeff George Jr. Pass to Mike Dudek for Two-Point Conversion)
-9.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+9.4
FG · Q4 7:53
Emilio Nadelman 29 Yd Field Goal
-2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com