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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadGRAM aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreGRAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:35 · Devante Kincade pass complete to Devante Kincade for 13 yds to the Tulan 5 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 5:15: Coby Neenan 21 yd FG GOOD — TULN win probability +2.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:16: Jonathan Banks pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 62 yds for a TD, (Coby Neenan KICK) — TULN win probability +2.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:06: Jonathan Banks pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 19 yds for a TD, (Coby Neenan KICK) — TULN win probability +2.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:25: Martez Carter run for 5 yds for a TD, (Marc Orozco KICK) — GRAM win probability +1.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: GRAM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:27: Martez Carter run for 51 yds for a TD, (Marc Orozco KICK) — GRAM win probability +1.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: GRAM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4GRAM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 15:00GRAM 4th & 10 at GRAM 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snapGo for it9.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q1 10:48GRAM 4th & 13 at GRAM 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snapGo for it9.4%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.6%average punt
- Q1 4:53TULN 4th & 22 at TULN 39, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snapGo for it90.7%−0.68% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.3%average punt
- Q1 2:00GRAM 4th & 5 at GRAM 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snapGo for it9.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.4%average punt
- Q2 15:00TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 40, up 14Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snapGo for it91.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.7%−0.7average punt
- Q2 13:06GRAM 4th & 8 at GRAM 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snapGo for it9.1%−0.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.4%average punt
- Q2 5:15TULN 4th & 4 at GRAM 4, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 91.0% before the snapGo for it90.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call90.4%−0.393% to makePunt87.6%−3.1average punt
- Q2 5:08GRAM 4th & 5 at GRAM 28, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it7.0%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q3 6:35GRAM 4th & 10 at TULN 18, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%−0.127% to convertField goal0.5%79% to makePunt0.1%−0.4average punt
- Q3 5:18TULN 4th & 14 at TULN 26, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.1%average punt
- Q3 4:19GRAM 4th & 8 at GRAM 41, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q4 8:07GRAM 4th & 12 at GRAM 26, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GRAM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:48TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.3%97% to makeGo for two90.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:06TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.9%97% to makeGo for two90.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:16TULN Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:06TULN Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:25GRAM Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.2%97% to makeGo for two1.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:49TULN Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:27GRAM Touchdown, down 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.4%97% to makeGo for two1.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:13TULN Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGRAMDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 18
0
91.5%
Devante Kincade pass complete to Martez Carter for no gain to the Gramb 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 13
0
91.5%
Devante Kincade pass incomplete to Darrell Clark, broken up by Jarrod FranklinSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
91.5%
Miguel Mendez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Donnie Lewis Jr. at the Tulan 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2TD6 plays · 56 yds · 2:4591% → 91%
Q1 10:48
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+30
91.0%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Terren Encalade for 30 yds for a TD, (Coby Neenan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 3PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 10:48
4TH & 13
OPP 0
0
90.9%
Miguel Mendez punt 41 yards to the TLN44, downed, PENALTY TLN roughing the kicker off-setting, PENALTY GRAM holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 13
OWN 15
+35
91.0%
Miguel Mendez punt for 35 yds , Donnie Lewis Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4TD6 plays · 51 yds · 2:3091% → 92%
Q1 9:36
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-3
90.9%
Jonathan Banks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 49 Jonathan Banks fumbled, recovered by Tulan Jonathan BanksSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+15
90.8%
[GUN], BANKS, J. sideline pass incomplete to CLEWIS, J., PENALTY GRAM pass interference (Kendall Hill) 15 yards to the GRAM36, 1ST DOWN TLN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
91.0%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 15 yds to the Gramb 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 5INT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 7:01
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+6
91.4%
Devante Kincade pass complete to - Lyndemianbrooks for 6 yds to the Gramb 22Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+8
91.4%
Devante Kincade pass complete to Darrell Clark for 8 yds to the Gramb 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
91.3%
Devante Kincade pass complete to - Lyndemianbrooks for a loss of 1 yard to the Gramb 29Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
91.4%
Devante Kincade pass intercepted Donnie Lewis Jr. return for no gain to the Tulan 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
91.7%
[GUN], BANKS, J. deep pass incomplete to CLEWIS, J., PENALTY GRAM pass interference (Dedrick Shy) 15 yards to the TLN38, 1ST DOWN TLN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 12
OWN 49
-10
91.7%
Jonathan Banks sacked by Linwood Banks for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulan 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
91.0%
Devante Kincade pass complete to Martez Carter for 8 yds to the Gramb 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
91.0%
Devante Kincade pass complete to Martez Carter for 3 yds to the Gramb 27Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
90.9%
Devante Kincade pass complete to Devohn Lindsey for 5 yds to the Gramb 32Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
91.2%
Miguel Mendez punt for 39 yds , Dontrell Hilliard returns for no gain to the Tulan 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10FG14 plays · 61 yds · 5:3892% → 94%
Q2 10:53
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+16
91.7%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Kendall Ardoin for 16 yds to the Gramb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+6
92.0%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Terren Encalade for 6 yds to the Gramb 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+10
92.2%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 10 yds to the Gramb 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 5:08
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
93.0%
Miguel Mendez punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dontrell Hilliard at the Tulan 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12TD3 plays · 63 yds · 1:0094% → 97%
Q2 3:16
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+62
96.9%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 62 yds for a TD, (Coby Neenan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 13END OF HALF8 plays · 22 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 3:16
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+1
96.1%
Devante Kincade pass complete to Devohn Lindsey for 1 yd to the Gramb 17Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+48
96.1%
Devante Kincade pass complete to Darrell Clark for 48 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-13
95.9%
Devante Kincade sacked by Luke Jackson for a loss of 13 yards to the Gramb 47Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 28
OWN 47
0
96.0%
Devante Kincade pass complete to DeSherrius Flowers for no gain to the Gramb 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14TD7 plays · 46 yds · 2:4697% → 100%
GRAMDrive 15TD20 plays · 82 yds · 6:301% → 2%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
99.5%
Devante Kincade pass complete to Devohn Lindsey for 9 yds to the Gramb 27Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+6
99.5%
Devante Kincade pass complete to Derrick Pate for 6 yds to the Gramb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
99.4%
Devante Kincade pass complete to Quintin Guice for 15 yds to the Gramb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Devante Kincade pass incomplete to Derrick Pate, broken up by Jarrod FranklinSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Devante Kincade pass incomplete to - Lyndemianbrooks, broken up by Parry NickersonSimilar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+27
99.6%
Devante Kincade pass complete to - Lyndemianbrooks for 27 yds to the Tulan 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 5
OPP 13
-10
99.5%
Devante Kincade sacked by Ade Aruna for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulan 23Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 15
OPP 23
+5
99.5%
Marc Orozco field goal attempt from 40 MISSED - wide right,, clock 06:35, PENALTY TLN roughing the kicker (SAMPLE, C.) 5 yards to the TLN18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+13
99.4%
Devante Kincade pass complete to Devante Kincade for 13 yds to the Tulan 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 5:18
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
98.7%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Darnell Mooney, broken up by De'Aumante JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
TULNDrive 18TD6 plays · 73 yds · 3:1399% → 100%
GRAMDrive 19TD2 plays · 51 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20TD11 plays · 77 yds · 6:0899% → 100%
Q4 14:21
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+5
99.3%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Chris Johnson for 5 yds to the Tulan 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-8
99.3%
Stephon Huderson run for 2 yds to the Tulan 40 TULANE Penalty, Offensive holding (Leeward Brown) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
Darius Bradwell run for 27 yds for a TD, (Coby Neenan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+20
99.9%
Geremy Hickbottom run for 5 yds to the Gramb 13 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, personal foul (Tirise Barge) to the Gramb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Geremy Hickbottom pass incomplete to Devohn Lindsey, broken up by Tre JacksonSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-4
99.9%
Geremy Hickbottom sacked by Larry Bryant for a loss of 4 yards to the Gramb 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22END OF GAME10 plays · 43 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:16
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 62 yds for a TD, (Coby Neenan KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q3 12:06
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 19 yds for a TD, (Coby Neenan KICK)
+2.3
FG · Q2 5:15
Coby Neenan 21 yd FG GOOD
+2