Try the model
SFA

Stephen F. Austin 14 at SMU 58

SMU
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadSFA aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreSFA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:38 · Jamie Sackville punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFAus 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Pregame prior+14.9Home team on offense+33.7Score differential+29.1Blowout margin+14.8Garbage-time factor+11.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:55: Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 13 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SFA win probability +0.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 8:12: Jake Blumrick pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Wyatt return for 85 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +0.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SFA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 3:15: Ke'Mon Freeman run for 21 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +0.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 13:30: D.J. Gillins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 12:55: Jordan Wyatt 0 Yd Fumble Return (Josh Williams Kick) — SMU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SFA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SFA made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00SFA 4th & 8 at SFA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:06SFA 4th & 29 at SFA 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:05SFA 4th & 9 at SFA 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:54SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 31, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:22SFA 4th & 10 at SFA 15, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:05SMU 4th & 4 at SFA 22, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:23SFA 4th & 7 at SFA 37, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:11SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 23, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:49SMU 4th & 8 at SFA 49, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:08SFA 4th & 9 at SFA 5, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:05SFA 4th & 1 at SMU 37, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:05SFA 4th & 4 at SMU 25, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:22SMU 4th & 1 at SFA 6, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:45SFA 4th & 18 at SFA 42, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:38SMU 4th & 7 at SFA 42, up 44
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:18SFA 4th & 8 at SFA 38, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:14SMU 4th & 1 at SFA 46, up 44
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8SFA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:55SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:12SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:15SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:30SMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:55SMU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:00SFA Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:13SMU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:56SMU Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:57SMU Touchdown, up 50 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:14SFA Touchdown, down 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SFADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
97.1%
Jake Blumrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
97.1%
Jake Blumrick run for 2 yds to the SFAus 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
97.1%
Jake Blumrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+4
97.1%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 42 yds , Trey Quinn returns for 4 yds to the SMU 30 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:0897% → 97%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
97.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 5 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+9
97.0%
Braeden West run for 9 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
97.0%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
97.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 9 yds to the SFAus 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
97.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+18
97.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 18 yds to the SFAus 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
97.0%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SFAus 23Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
97.0%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+4
97.0%
SFA Penalty, offside defense (4 Yards) to the SFAus 19Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
97.0%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SFAus 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
97.0%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SFAus 13Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
97.0%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SFAus 13Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+13
96.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 13 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 3INT TD
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:314% → 4%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
96.4%
Blumrick, Jake pass complete to Goree, Terian for 6 yards to the SMU32, out-of-bounds (MITCHELL, Kyran), PENALTY SMU offside defense 5 yards to the SMU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 5
OPP 33
+4
96.4%
Kijana Amous run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+2
96.4%
Kijana Amous run for 2 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+85
96.5%
Jake Blumrick pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Wyatt return for 85 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
96.7%
Jamall Shaw run for 2 yds to the SFAus 19Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+7
96.7%
Jamall Shaw run for 7 yds to the SFAus 26Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+1
96.7%
Kijana Amous run for 1 yd to the SFAus 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
96.7%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Trae Hart for 12 yds to the SFAus 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
96.6%
Josh McGowen run for no gain to the SFAus 39Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
96.6%
Jake Blumrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-7
96.7%
Jake Blumrick run for a loss of 7 yards to the SFAus 20 Jake Blumrick fumbled, recovered by SFAus Jake BlumrickSimilar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 29
OWN 20
0
96.7%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:3097% → 97%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
96.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 6
50
+4
96.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SFAus 46Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
96.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SFAus 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
96.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 22 yds to the SFAus 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
97.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 21 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
97.3%
Kijana Amous run for 8 yds to the SFAus 29Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+4
97.2%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Allen Arclies for 4 yds to the SFAus 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
97.2%
SFA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFAus 28Similar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 15
OWN 28
-1
97.3%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Trae Hart for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 27Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+7
97.3%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Tamrick Pace for 7 yds to the SFAus 34Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
97.3%
Foster Sawyer pass incomplete to Trae HartSimilar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 9
OWN 34
-3
97.3%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 41 yds , Trey Quinn returns for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:1497% → 99%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+51
97.2%
Braeden West run for 51 yds to the SFAus 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
97.4%
D.J. Gillins run for 15 yds to the SFAus 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
97.5%
Xavier Jones run for 11 yds to the SFAus 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
97.5%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFAus 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
97.5%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SFAus 1Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.6%
D.J. Gillins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 8FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -21 yds · 0:351% → 1%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 0
-4
98.6%
Kijana Amous run for 1 yd to the SFAus 22 SFA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-5 Yards) to the SFAus 6Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 25
OWN 6
0
98.9%
Jordan Wyatt 0 Yd Fumble Return (Josh Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:551% → 1%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.9%
Jake Blumrick run for 3 yds to the SFAus 28Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
98.9%
Kijana Amous run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 27Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+28
98.9%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Frank Iheanacho for 28 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
98.8%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Frank Iheanacho for 7 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+4
98.8%
Jake Blumrick run for 4 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
98.8%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Tamrick Pace for 5 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+8
98.7%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Tamrick Pace for 8 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
98.8%
Josh McGowen run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+23
98.7%
Kijana Amous run for 23 yds for a TD, (Storm Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 6 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
98.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
98.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-2
98.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-3
98.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 12
OWN 31
-2
98.9%
Jamie Sackville punt for 52 yds , Trae Hart returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
99.2%
Jamall Shaw run for 6 yds to the SFAus 21Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+2
99.2%
Jamall Shaw run for 2 yds to the SFAus 23Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 2
OWN 23
-8
99.2%
Jake Blumrick sacked by Kyran Mitchell for a loss of 8 yards to the SFAus 15Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
99.2%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:3299% → 100%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.3%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SFAus 46Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+7
99.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 7 yds to the SFAus 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
99.3%
Braeden West run for 11 yds to the SFAus 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.3%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the SFAus 22Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
99.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
99.5%
Josh Williams 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:341% → 0%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
99.5%
Josh McGowen run for 11 yds to the SFAus 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
99.5%
Blumrick, Jake pass incomplete to Arclies, Allen, PENALTY SFA holding (Hunter, Josiah) 10 yards to the SFA24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+10
99.5%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Josh McGowen for 10 yds to the SFAus 34Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Jake Blumrick pass incomplete to Trae HartSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.5%
Josh McGowen run for 3 yds to the SFAus 37Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+6
99.6%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 23 , James Proche returns for 6 yds to the SMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
99.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Alize WardSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
99.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
99.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Trae Hart at the SFAus 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.5%
Jamall Shaw run for 5 yds to the SFAus 33Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-3
99.5%
Jamall Shaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFAus 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.6%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+7
99.5%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Tarrin MitchellSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.6%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SFAus 49Similar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
99.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey Quinn, broken up by Sloan RodbergSimilar
Q3 14:49
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
99.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
99.7%
Kijana Amous run for no gain to the SFAus 4Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
99.7%
Jake Blumrick pass incomplete to Tamrick PaceSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+1
99.7%
Kijana Amous run for 1 yd to the SFAus 5Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 9
OWN 5
+8
99.7%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 49 yds , Trey Quinn returns for 8 yds to the SFAus 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SFAus 44Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+9
99.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 9 yds to the SFAus 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SFAus 35Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 35 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 19DOWNS
15 plays · 45 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.7%
Blumrick, Jake pass complete to Goree, Terian for 6 yards to the SFA36 (ONU, Mikial), PENALTY SMU offside defense 5 yards to the SFA35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 5
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Jake Blumrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
99.7%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Frank Iheanacho for 7 yds to the SFAus 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.7%
Jamall Shaw run for 4 yds to the SFAus 46Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
99.7%
Jamall Shaw run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 2
50
+4
99.7%
Jamall Shaw run for 4 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Jake Blumrick pass incomplete to Terian GoreeSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.7%
Jamall Shaw run for 5 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+4
99.7%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Terian Goree for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+6
99.7%
Jake Blumrick run for 6 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.7%
Jake Blumrick pass incomplete to Frank Iheanacho, broken up by Rodney ClemonsSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-1
99.7%
Kijana Amous run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+7
99.7%
Jake Blumrick run for 7 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 4
OPP 25
0
99.6%
Jake Blumrick pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:26100% → 100%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
99.8%
D.J. Gillins run for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST down SFA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.8%
D.J. Gillins run for 5 yds to the SFAus 45Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
99.8%
D.J. Gillins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+5
99.8%
SFA Penalty, offside defense (John Franklin) to the SFAus 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+15
99.8%
GILLINS, D.J. pass intercepted by Ward, Alize at the SMU9, Ward, Alize return to the SFA35 (BECKER, Ryan), PENALTY SFA holding (Foy, Aaron) 10 yards to the SFA30, NO PLAY, PENALTY SFA personal foul (Wilkerson, Chri) 15 yards to the SFA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
99.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the SFAus 10Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+1
99.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SFAus 9Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+3
99.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SFAus 6Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
99.8%
D.J. Gillins run for 2 yds to the SFAus 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SFAus 1Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
D.J. Gillins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 4 yds · 2:570% → 0%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Jake Blumrick pass incomplete to Trae HartSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Jake Blumrick pass incomplete to Allen ArcliesSimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+12
99.9%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Tamrick Pace for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
50
-1
99.9%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Josh McGowen for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 49Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+1
99.9%
Josh McGowen run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 10
50
-5
99.9%
SFA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFAus 45Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 15
OWN 45
-7
100.0%
Jake Blumrick run for a loss of 7 yards to the SFAus 42 Jake Blumrick fumbled, recovered by SFAus Jake BlumrickSimilar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 18
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
99.9%
Rafe Peavey pass complete to Tyler Page for 8 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-10
99.9%
MEDLOCK, Kayce rush for 6 yards to the SMU41 (Roland, Gavin), PENALTY SMU holding 10 yards to the SMU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+30
99.9%
Rafe Peavey pass complete to Kayce Medlock for 30 yds to the SFAus 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Kayce Medlock run for 2 yds to the SFAus 43Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Kayce Medlock run for 3 yds to the SFAus 40Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-2
99.9%
Rafe Peavey run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 42Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Jamie Sackville punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFAus 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
100.0%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Tamrick Pace for 19 yds to the SFAus 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Jake Blumrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
100.0%
Juan Day run for 2 yds to the SFAus 38Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Jake Blumrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Caleb Lewallen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
100.0%
Rafe Peavey pass complete to Brandon Benson for 72 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 25TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:280% → 0%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
100.0%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Dylan Parker for 17 yds to the SMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
100.0%
Jake Blumrick pass complete to Juan Day for 6 yds for a TD, (Storm Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26END OF GAME
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Marcalas Johnson run for 1 yd to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
Marcalas Johnson run for 1 yd to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+8
99.9%
Rafe Peavey run for 8 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
100.0%
Kayce Medlock run for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
100.0%
Kayce Medlock run for 3 yds to the SFAus 48Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
100.0%
Kayce Medlock run for 2 yds to the SFAus 46Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Kayce Medlock run for 2 yds to the SFAus 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 46Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFAus 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:30
D.J. Gillins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q1 3:15
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 21 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q1 9:55
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 13 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
-0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com