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STBK

Stony Brook 17 at South Florida 31

USF
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadSTBK aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreSTBK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:36 · Marc Nolan punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior+47.2Home team on offense−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:47: Timeout SOUTH FLORIDA, clock 02:47 — STBK win probability +7.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 2:43: Marquez Valdes-Scantling 6 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +12.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:04: Stacey Bedell 54 Yd Run (Alex Lucansky Kick) — STBK win probability +18.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: STBK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:23: Tyre McCants 65 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +14.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:40: Darius Tice 14 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 10STBK made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00STBK 4th & 11 at STBK 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:50USF 4th & 2 at STBK 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:36STBK 4th & 5 at USF 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:57USF 4th & 13 at USF 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:49STBK 4th & 2 at STBK 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:18USF 4th & 11 at USF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00STBK 4th & 4 at STBK 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:03USF 4th & 2 at USF 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:37STBK 4th & 11 at STBK 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:30USF 4th & 3 at USF 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:57STBK 4th & 11 at USF 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:57USF 4th & 9 at USF 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:35STBK 4th & 10 at USF 38, up 3
    Close callPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    14.6%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:43STBK 4th & 4 at STBK 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:32USF 4th & 10 at STBK 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−7.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:23STBK 4th & 16 at STBK 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:52USF 4th & 12 at USF 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−2.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:34STBK 4th & 3 at STBK 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:44USF 4th & 1 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.1%−2.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:44USF 4th & 8 at STBK 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    90.3%−1.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4STBK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:49USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:43USF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:04STBK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:23USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:40USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STBKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
98.3%
Stacey Bedell run for 3 yds to the StBrk 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
98.3%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Stacey Bedell for 5 yds to the StBrk 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-9
98.3%
Joe Carbone sacked by Greg Reaves for a loss of 9 yards to the StBrk 21Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 21
+37
98.3%
Marc Nolan punt for 51 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 37 yds to the StBrk 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
98.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the StBrk 29Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-2
98.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the StBrk 31Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+4
98.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the StBrk 27Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 2
OPP 27
-2
98.0%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 2 yards to the StBrk 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
97.9%
Joe Carbone run for 2 yds to the StBrk 31Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-2
97.9%
Joe Carbone run for a loss of 2 yards to the StBrk 29Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+11
97.9%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Harrison Jackson for 11 yds to the StBrk 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
97.8%
Donald Liotine run for 1 yd to the StBrk 41Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+18
97.8%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Cal Daniels for 18 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
97.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, encroachment (5 Yards) to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 5
OPP 36
0
97.8%
Donald Liotine run for no gain to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
97.8%
Joe Carbone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
97.8%
Joe Carbone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
97.8%
Marc Nolan punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT TD
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0497% → 97%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
97.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 10Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-3
97.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 7Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 13
OWN 7
0
97.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 13
OWN 7
0
96.7%
Jonathan Hernandez punt blocked by Andrew Trent blocked by Andrew Trent Augie Contressa return for no gain for a TD, (Alex Lucansky KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 2:0897% → 97%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
96.8%
Deangelo Antoine run for 15 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
96.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Temi Alaka for 4 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
96.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
96.9%
STONY BROOK Penalty, encroachment (5 Yards) to the StBrk 49Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
96.9%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the StBrk 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
96.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 14 yds to the StBrk 33 for a 1ST down STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the StBrk 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
97.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 17 yds to the StBrk 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
97.0%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the StBrk 4Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
97.0%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the StBrk 1Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
Darius Tice 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
96.8%
Jordan Gowins run for 2 yds to the StBrk 23 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the StBrk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
96.7%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Connor Davis for 5 yds to the StBrk 43Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
96.7%
Jordan Gowins run for 4 yds to the StBrk 47Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-1
96.7%
Stacey Bedell run for a loss of 1 yard to the StBrk 46Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+2
96.7%
Marc Nolan punt for 37 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 2 yds to the SFla 48 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SFla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
96.3%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the SFla 9Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+15
96.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete for a 1ST down STONY BROOK Penalty, roughing passer (Shayne Lawless) to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
96.3%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Jordan Scarbrough for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 16
OWN 18
-1
96.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 17Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 17
OWN 17
+6
96.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
96.2%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 45 yds , Donavin Washington returns for no gain to the StBrk 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
95.5%
Stacey Bedell run for 4 yds to the StBrk 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-4
95.5%
Stacey Bedell run for a loss of 4 yards to the StBrk 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+6
95.7%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Donavin Washington for 6 yds to the StBrk 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
95.7%
Marc Nolan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
95.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 18Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
95.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+10
95.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 10 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+7
95.1%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 47 yds , Donavin Washington returns for 7 yds to the StBrk 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
94.5%
Donald Liotine run for 3 yds to the StBrk 35Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
94.5%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Harrison Jackson, broken up by Ronnie HogginsSimilar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+9
94.6%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Ray Bolden for 9 yds to the StBrk 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
94.3%
Jordan Gowins run for a loss of 1 yard to the StBrk 43Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
94.4%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Ray BoldenSimilar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
94.6%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Ray BoldenSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
94.8%
Marc Nolan punt for 55 yds, downed at the SFla 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
94.2%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the SFla 2Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+3
94.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 3 yds to the SFla 5Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+4
93.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 3
OWN 9
+2
93.8%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 41 yds , Donavin Washington returns for 2 yds to the StBrk 11 STONY BROOK Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the StBrk 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 12FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:028% → 10%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
92.5%
Donald Liotine run for 3 yds to the StBrk 45Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
92.4%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Ray Bolden, broken up by Deatrick Nichols STONY BROOK Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+8
92.6%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Harrison Jackson for 8 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
92.3%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Ray BoldenSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
92.4%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Nick Anderson for 14 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
91.5%
Joe Carbone sacked by Nico Sawtelle for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+17
91.6%
Joe Carbone run for 17 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
91.5%
Stacey Bedell run for no gain to the SFla 18Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-1
91.5%
Joe Carbone run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 11
OPP 19
0
91.8%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Nick AndersonSimilar
Q2 3:57
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+36
90.1%
Alex Lucansky 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
90.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 5 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+10
90.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 10 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
90.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for no gain to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
90.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 5 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+1
91.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 3:57
4TH & 4
OWN 42
-5
90.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 3:57
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
90.1%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
88.2%
Donald Liotine run for 5 yds to the StBrk 25Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
87.9%
Donald Liotine run for 3 yds to the StBrk 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0087% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
87.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
87.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 9 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
87.7%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
87.5%
Darius Tice run for 8 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+6
88.6%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST down STONY BROOK Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
88.6%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Travon Reid-Segure return for no gain to the StBrk 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
84.3%
Joe Carbone run for 4 yds to the StBrk 43Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
84.2%
Stacey Bedell run for 2 yds to the StBrk 45Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
84.4%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Cal Daniels for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
50
+8
83.8%
Stacey Bedell run for 8 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
83.6%
Donald Liotine run for no gain to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
83.9%
Donald Liotine run for 4 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
83.8%
Stacey Bedell run for 7 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-2
83.2%
Stacey Bedell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-5
84.1%
Joe Carbone sacked by Kevin Kegler for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
85.5%
Marc Nolan punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
20 plays · 80 yds · 5:0880% → 89%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
80.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 4 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
80.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
79.8%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
80.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 7 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
82.4%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
81.7%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
82.1%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Shayne Lawless for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 35Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+20
79.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 20 yds to the StBrk 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
82.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
82.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 14 yds to the StBrk 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
83.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
83.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 8 yds to the StBrk 23Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+8
82.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 8 yds to the StBrk 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
83.7%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 1 yard to the StBrk 16Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+15
83.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Temi Alaka for 15 yds to the StBrk 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
83.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Cameron Ruff) to the StBrk 6Similar
Q3 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.7%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the StBrk 6Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 2:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.5%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 6 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0015% → 13%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
85.5%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Connor Davis for 1 yd to the StBrk 9Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+5
85.7%
Jordan Gowins run for 5 yds to the StBrk 14Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 4
OWN 14
0
86.0%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Ray BoldenSimilar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 4
OWN 14
+46
86.6%
Marc Nolan punt for 48 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 46 yds to the StBrk 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1788% → 86%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
88.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Temi AlakaSimilar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
88.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Temi AlakaSimilar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
87.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
86.2%
Emilio Nadelman 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2811% → 32%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.8%
Sherman Alston Jr. run for 4 yds to the StBrk 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
88.0%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Nick Anderson for 7 yds to the StBrk 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
87.8%
Joe Carbone run for a loss of 5 yards to the StBrk 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+15
88.9%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Harrison Jackson for 15 yds to the StBrk 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
86.8%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Donavin WashingtonSimilar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+54
68.2%
Stacey Bedell 54 Yd Run (Alex Lucansky Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 1:4175% → 91%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
74.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 13 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
75.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 4 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
76.0%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+65
90.5%
Tyre McCants 65 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.7%
Jordan Gowins run for no gain to the StBrk 25Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.9%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Harrison Jackson, broken up by Danny ThomasSimilar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
89.6%
Joe Carbone sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 6 yards to the StBrk 19Similar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
90.2%
Marc Nolan punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0092% → 90%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
92.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-1
92.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Temi Alaka for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-5
91.2%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 12
OWN 42
+9
90.0%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 43 yds , Donavin Washington returns for 9 yds to the StBrk 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
87.3%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Harrison JacksonSimilar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
87.6%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Nick Anderson for 7 yds to the StBrk 31Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
86.9%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Donavin Washington, broken up by Jaymon ThomasSimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
87.7%
Marc Nolan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
90.6%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+3
90.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 3 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+9
90.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
91.8%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
91.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
91.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 1
50
+5
90.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the StBrk 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
92.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the StBrk 43Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
92.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the StBrk 43Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
91.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
90.4%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Donavin Washington at the StBrk 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 26INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
88.8%
Donald Liotine run for no gain to the StBrk 2Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
89.0%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Donavin WashingtonSimilar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 10
OWN 2
0
89.7%
Joe Carbone pass intercepted Mazzi Wilkins return for no gain to the StBrk 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:5895% → 99%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
94.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the StBrk 26Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+8
95.3%
Darius Tice run for 8 yds to the StBrk 18Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+4
95.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 4 yds to the StBrk 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
98.9%
Darius Tice 14 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 28INT
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:192% → 1%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
97.7%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Donald Liotine for 4 yds to the StBrk 31Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+7
97.6%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Cal Daniels for 7 yds to the StBrk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+10
97.6%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Donavin Washington for 10 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
97.6%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Cal Daniels for 5 yds to the StBrk 43Similar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.5%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Andrew Trent, broken up by Ronnie HogginsSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
97.6%
Joe Carbone sacked by Mike Love for a loss of 5 yards to the StBrk 48Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+25
98.7%
Joe Carbone pass intercepted Devin Abraham return for 25 yds to the StBrk 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the StBrk 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:04
Stacey Bedell 54 Yd Run (Alex Lucansky Kick)
-18.6
TD · Q4 11:23
Tyre McCants 65 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+14.5
TD · Q3 2:43
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 6 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com