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JMU

James Madison 34 at East Carolina 14

ECU
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:21 · Darius Pinnix run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 36 Darius Pinnix fumbled, recovered by JMads Raven Greene
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense−7.0Score differential−2.6Garbage-time factor−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Pregame prior−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:41: Cardon Johnson 85 Yd Run (Tyler Gray Kick) — JMU win probability +13.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:11: Darius Pinnix 6 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick) — ECU win probability +14.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q3 10:11: Bryan Schor pass complete to Nick Carlton for 15 yds Nick Carlton fumbled, forced by Devon Sutton, recovered by ECaro Devon Sutton — JMU win probability +9.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:06: Bryan Schor pass complete to Nick Carlton for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Gray KICK) — JMU win probability +15.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:36: Cardon Johnson 80 Yd Run (Tyler Gray PAT failed) — JMU win probability +12.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10JMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:58JMU 4th & 8 at ECU 32, tied
    Close callWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:43ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:52JMU 4th & 1 at ECU 19, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.4%−0.9
    77% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ECU 4th & 14 at JMU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:17JMU 4th & 4 at JMU 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:51ECU 4th & 15 at JMU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:51JMU 4th & 15 at JMU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:48ECU 4th & 12 at ECU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:40JMU 4th & 24 at JMU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:21ECU 4th & 2 at JMU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−2.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−4.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:17ECU 4th & 9 at JMU 20, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−6.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:36ECU 4th & 4 at JMU 4, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:10JMU 4th & 3 at JMU 33, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:19ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 29, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:34ECU 4th & 7 at JMU 21, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2JMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 5:11JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:41JMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:11ECU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:06JMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:36JMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:34JMU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:23ECU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
47.5%
Derrell Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
47.5%
Gardner Minshew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
47.5%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Stephen BaggettSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+50
47.5%
Austin Barnes punt for 50 yds , John Miller returns for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
47.7%
Cole Johnson run for 9 yds to the JMads 40Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+1
47.6%
Cole Johnson run for 1 yd to the JMads 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
47.6%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Nick Carlton for 6 yds to the JMads 47Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+19
47.6%
Cole Johnson run for 19 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
47.5%
Marcus Marshall run for 5 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-5
47.5%
Marcus Marshall run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+2
47.6%
Bryan Schor run for 2 yds to the ECaro 32 JMU Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 8
OPP 32
0
47.6%
Bryan Schor pass incomplete to John MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
48.5%
Gardner Minshew sacked by Andrew Ankrah for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+3
48.3%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+8
48.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 8 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
48.2%
Austin Barnes punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the JMads 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 3:3152% → 56%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
48.5%
Cole Johnson run for 2 yds to the JMads 20Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+26
48.6%
Bryan Schor pass complete to David Eldridge for 26 yds to the JMads 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+27
48.0%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Ishmael Hyman for 27 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
47.7%
Bryan Schor pass complete to John Miller for 11 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
47.7%
Bryan Schor pass incomplete to Riley StapletonSimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
47.7%
Cole Johnson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+8
47.9%
Bryan Schor run for 8 yds to the ECaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
47.7%
Cole Johnson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 4Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.3%
Bryan Schor run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
45.7%
Gardner Minshew pass intercepted Jake Brown return for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6MISSED FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:0656% → 56%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
44.4%
Marcus Marshall run for 3 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+9
44.3%
Bryan Schor pass complete to David Eldridge for 9 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
44.2%
Bryan Schor run for 9 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
44.2%
Marcus Marshall run for no gain to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
44.4%
Marcus Marshall run for no gain to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+35
43.7%
Tyler Gray 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:5245% → 44%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
44.5%
Derrell Scott run for 5 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
44.8%
Derrell Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
44.5%
Derrell Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+29
44.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davon Grayson for 29 yds to the EASTCRLINA 40 for a 1ST down JMU Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
46.1%
Gardner Minshew pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
46.0%
Gardner Minshew run for 6 yds to the JMads 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-10
45.8%
MINSHEW, Grdnr pass complete to BAGGETT, Steve for 5 yards to the JMU29 (D. Holloway), PENALTY ECU holding 10 yards to the JMU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 44
0
44.5%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
43.6%
Austin Barnes punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
44.4%
Taylor Woods run for 11 yds to the JMads 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
43.9%
Bryan Schor run for 7 yds to the JMads 38Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 3
OWN 38
-1
43.1%
Marcus Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 37Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
43.6%
Bryan Schor pass incomplete to Riley StapletonSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
44.2%
Jeremiah McBride punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tim Irvin at the ECaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9MISSED FG
17 plays · 49 yds · 3:4744% → 43%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
44.2%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
44.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davon Grayson for 6 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+9
43.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 9 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
44.6%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
44.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Trevon Brown for 12 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
45.5%
Hussein Howe run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
44.9%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+13
44.3%
MINSHEW, Grdnr sideline pass incomplete to GRAYSON, Davon, PENALTY JMU pass interference (J. Moreland) 13 yards to the JMU44, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
44.9%
Davon Grayson run for 4 yds to the JMads 40Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+11
44.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davon Grayson for 11 yds to the JMads 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
45.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
45.7%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Stephen BaggettSimilar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-5
44.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (D'Ante Smith) to the JMads 34Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 15
OPP 34
0
43.3%
Gardner Minshew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+51
42.5%
Jake Verity 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q2 8:51
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
43.8%
Jeremiah McBride punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tim Irvin at the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
41.6%
C. Johnson rush over right end for no gain to the JMU34 (TILLMAN, Ray;WILLIAMS, Jrdn), PENALTY JMU personal foul 15 yards to the JMU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 25
OWN 19
+2
42.8%
Cole Johnson run for 2 yds to the JMads 21Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 23
OWN 21
+8
42.8%
Bryan Schor run for 8 yds to the JMads 29Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 15
OWN 29
0
43.2%
Bryan Schor run for no gain to the JMads 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
41.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 12 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
43.2%
Derrell Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-6
42.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-6 Yards) to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+3
41.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 3 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+3
40.9%
Gardner Minshew run for 3 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
40.8%
Austin Barnes punt for 58 yds, downed at the JMads 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12PUNT
15 plays · 46 yds · 3:3558% → 62%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
41.7%
Cole Johnson run for 2 yds to the JMads 5Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+7
41.9%
Bryan Schor pass complete to John Miller for 7 yds to the JMads 12Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+3
41.3%
Cole Johnson run for 3 yds to the JMads 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
41.0%
Bryan Schor run for 11 yds to the JMads 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
40.2%
Bryan Schor pass complete to David Eldridge for 16 yds to the JMads 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
38.4%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Cole Johnson for 10 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
34.0%
Bryan Schor run for 8 yds to the JMads 40 JMU Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 12
50
+13
34.6%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Ishmael Hyman for 13 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
33.3%
Bryan Schor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-9
33.4%
Bryan Schor sacked by Kiante Anderson for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 46 Bryan Schor fumbled, recovered by JMads Jahee Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 19
OPP 46
0
35.2%
Bryan Schor pass incomplete to Riley Stapleton, broken up by Travis PhillipsSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 19
OPP 46
-5
36.4%
JMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the JMads 49Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 24
OWN 49
+1
37.6%
Jeremiah McBride punt for 40 yds , Tim Irvin returns for 1 yd to the ECaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
39.0%
Hussein Howe run for 4 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
25.9%
Cardon Johnson 85 Yd Run (Tyler Gray Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15INT
11 plays · 63 yds · 0:0027% → 30%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
26.5%
Derrell Scott run for 11 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
26.9%
Derrell Scott run for 4 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-1
27.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 14:41
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+13
26.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 13 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
28.8%
Thomas Sirk run for 3 yds to the JMads 48Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+14
28.9%
SIRK, Thomas sideline pass incomplete to GRAYSON, Davon (C. Oliver), PENALTY JMU pass interference (C. Oliver) 14 yards to the JMU34, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
29.5%
SIRK, Thomas SP pass incomplete to FARRIER, Deondr (R. Greene), PENALTY JMU pass interference (R. Greene) 15 yards to the JMU19, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-13
29.5%
Jimmy Williams run for 12 yds to the JMads 7 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-25 Yards) to the JMads 32Similar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 23
OPP 32
+17
29.4%
Hussein Howe run for 2 yds to the JMads 30 JMU Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the JMads 15Similar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
29.5%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted, touchback. Rashad Robinson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
22.5%
Bryan Schor pass intercepted Bobby Fulp return for a loss of 3 yards to the JMads 17 JMU Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:4626% → 41%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
25.8%
Darius Pinnix run for 4 yds to the JMads 21Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+15
25.8%
SIRK, Thomas sideline pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jimmy (J. Moreland), PENALTY JMU pass interference (J. Moreland) 15 yards to the JMU6, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.6%
Darius Pinnix 6 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 10:11
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+15
30.9%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Nick Carlton for 15 yds Nick Carlton fumbled, forced by Devon Sutton, recovered by ECaro Devon SuttonSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.5%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the JMads 30Similar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
32.8%
Cole Johnson run for 5 yds to the JMads 35Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
32.1%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Cole Johnson for 2 yds to the JMads 37Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
32.2%
Bryan Schor pass complete to John Miller for 7 yds to the JMads 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
31.1%
Marcus Marshall run for 5 yds to the JMads 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19FUMBLE
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0035% → 37%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
35.4%
Derrell Scott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 37Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
35.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 3 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+7
34.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 7 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
37.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Davon Grayson for 12 yds to the JMads 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
38.8%
Derrell Scott run for 6 yds to the JMads 35Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+2
40.3%
Derrell Scott run for 2 yds to the JMads 33Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
38.6%
Thomas Sirk run for no gain to the JMads 33Similar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 2
OPP 33
-2
36.6%
Darius Pinnix run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 36 Darius Pinnix fumbled, recovered by JMads Raven GreeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:4871% → 89%
Q3 4:54
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+20
28.7%
Cole Johnson run for 20 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
28.4%
John Miller run for 1 yd to the JMads 37Similar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
27.0%
Cole Johnson run for 5 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
26.7%
Cole Johnson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+3
26.9%
Cole Johnson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
26.5%
Trai Sharp run for 4 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
26.2%
Bryan Schor pass incomplete to Ishmael HymanSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+9
27.0%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Ishmael Hyman for 9 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
26.2%
T. Sharp rush over right end for 6 yards to the ECU13 (SUTTON, Devon), PENALTY JMU holding 10 yards to the ECU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 20
OPP 29
-5
26.5%
B. Schor sideline pass incomplete to I. Hyman (SEARGENT, Corey), PENALTY JMU illegal formation 5 yards to the ECU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 25
OPP 34
+17
26.5%
Bryan Schor pass complete to John Miller for 17 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
10.7%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Nick Carlton for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 54 yds · 1:4314% → 15%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
14.1%
SIRK, Thomas middle pass incomplete to GRAYSON, Davon (J. Moreland), PENALTY JMU pass interference (J. Moreland) 10 yards to the ECU36, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
14.7%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 9 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
16.0%
Hussein Howe run for 2 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
15.8%
SIRK, Thomas deep out pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jimmy (J. Moreland), PENALTY JMU pass interference (J. Moreland) 15 yards to the JMU38, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
16.2%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Stephen BaggettSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
15.9%
Thomas Sirk run for 1 yd to the JMads 37Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+16
14.6%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 16 yds to the JMads 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
16.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the JMads 25Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+5
15.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 5 yds to the JMads 20Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
15.2%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 9
OPP 20
0
14.6%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
2.4%
Cardon Johnson 80 Yd Run (Tyler Gray PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 67 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
2.8%
SIRK, Thomas pass incomplete to BROWN, Trevon, PENALTY ECU holding 10 yards to the ECU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+16
2.8%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 16 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+15
2.9%
SIRK, Thomas deep out pass incomplete to BROWN, Trevon (R. Robinson), PENALTY JMU pass interference (R. Robinson) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
50
+12
3.0%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Tahj Deans for 12 yds to the JMads 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
3.2%
SIRK, Thomas sideline pass incomplete to GRAYSON, Davon, PENALTY JMU pass interference 15 yards to the JMU23, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
3.5%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 16 yds to the JMads 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
3.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 11:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
3.5%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 11:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
3.4%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 3 yds to the JMads 4Similar
Q4 11:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
3.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+22
1.9%
Cole Johnson run for 22 yds to the JMads 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
1.8%
Trai Sharp run for 4 yds to the JMads 30Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+2
1.9%
Trai Sharp run for 2 yds to the JMads 32Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+1
1.9%
Trai Sharp run for 1 yd to the JMads 33Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
1.8%
Jeremiah McBride punt for 44 yds, downed at the ECaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25INT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
1.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 6 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
1.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
1.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+6
1.3%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Tahj Deans for 6 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
1.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
1.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Tahj Deans, broken up by Rashad RobinsonSimilar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
1.3%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Tahj DeansSimilar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+16
1.2%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Quay Johnson for 16 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
1.3%
Thomas Sirk pass intercepted Rashad Robinson return for no gain to the JMads 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 26TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 1:5699% → 100%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
1.0%
Marcus Marshall run for 4 yds to the JMads 23Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
1.0%
Marcus Marshall run for 7 yds to the JMads 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
0.1%
Marcus Marshall run for 70 yds for a TD, (Ethan Ratke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 2:110% → 1%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
0.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 4 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+9
0.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 9 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
0.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 19 yds to the JMads 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
0.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Trevon Brown for 16 yds to the JMads 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
0.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Derrell Scott for 3 yds to the JMads 21Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
0.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
0.1%
Thomas Sirk pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+11
0.1%
Thomas Sirk pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 11 yds to the JMads 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
0.2%
Derrell Scott run for 9 yds to the JMads 1Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.9%
Derrell Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:06
Bryan Schor pass complete to Nick Carlton for 17 yds for a TD, (Tyler Gray KICK)
-15.8
TD · Q3 10:11
Darius Pinnix 6 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)
+14.8
TD · Q3 14:41
Cardon Johnson 85 Yd Run (Tyler Gray Kick)
-13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com