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APSU

Austin Peay 14 at Cincinnati 26

CIN
2017 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2017 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadAPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreAPSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:41 · James Smith punt for 36 yds, downed at the APeay 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior+19.4Home team on offense+13.1Score differential+1.9Garbage-time factor+8.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:45: JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Kentel Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Logan Birchfield KICK) — APSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 5%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:41: Josh Alexander run for 11 yds for a TD, (Logan Birchfield KICK) — APSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:41: Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 7 yds to the Cincy 40 — CIN win probability +4.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:36: DeAngelo Wilson run for 1 yd to the APeay 11 — APSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:13: Mike Boone run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CIN win probability +3.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7APSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00APSU 4th & 2 at APSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:37CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:47APSU 4th & 1 at CIN 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:27APSU 4th & 7 at CIN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:36CIN 4th & 20 at CIN 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:41APSU 4th & 12 at APSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:41CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:20APSU 4th & 11 at APSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:40CIN 4th & 12 at CIN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:48APSU 4th & 5 at APSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:52CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:58APSU 4th & 22 at APSU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:28CIN 4th & 7 at APSU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:28APSU 4th & 19 at APSU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00APSU 4th & 6 at CIN 25, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−2.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:41CIN 4th & 3 at APSU 46, up 6
    Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%−2.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:36APSU 4th & 9 at APSU 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:11APSU 4th & 2 at CIN 33, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−1.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:57APSU 4th & 1 at CIN 3, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.6
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4APSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 10:54CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:45APSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:06CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:29CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:41APSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:13CIN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.2%
Kentel Williams run for no gain to the APeay 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
99.2%
JaVaughn Craig pass incomplete to Kentel Williams, broken up by Perry YoungSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+18
99.2%
JaVaughn Craig run for 18 yds to the APeay 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.2%
Kentel Williams run for 2 yds to the APeay 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+5
99.2%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to James Coleman for 5 yds to the APeay 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+1
99.2%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 1 yd to the APeay 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
99.2%
Devin Stuart punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Devin Gray at the Cincy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+16
99.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 16 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
99.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tyler CogswellSimilar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
99.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 10
OWN 21
-5
99.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Tyrell Gilbert) to the Cincy 16Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
99.0%
James Smith punt for 44 yds, fair catch by - Rollins-Davis at the APeay 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 3FUMBLE
11 plays · 20 yds · 4:201% → 2%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
98.9%
Kentel Williams run for 9 yds to the APeay 49Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
98.9%
Kentel Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
98.9%
Kentel Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-7
98.9%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Ahmaad Tanner for a loss of 7 yards to the APeay 47Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+14
98.9%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 14 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
98.9%
JaVaughn Craig run for 17 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST down AUSTINPEAY Penalty, personal foul (Charles Mosley) to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
98.9%
Prince Momodu run for 3 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
98.9%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Josh Alexander for 5 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-5
98.4%
JaVaughn Craig run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 34 JaVaughn Craig fumbled, recovered by APeay JaVaughn CraigSimilar
Q1 6:27
4TH & 7
OPP 34
-6
98.5%
JaVaughn Craig sacked by Tyrell Gilbert for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 40 JaVaughn Craig fumbled, recovered by Cincy Jaylyin Minor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 3 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
98.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 5 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-5
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Cincy Hayden MooreSimilar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 15
OWN 35
-5
98.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
98.4%
James Smith punt for 39 yds, fair catch by - Rollins-Davis at the APeay 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
98.1%
Kentel Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the APeay 27Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+1
98.2%
Josh Alexander run for 1 yd to the APeay 28Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+1
98.2%
JaVaughn Craig run for 1 yd to the APeay 29Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
98.2%
Devin Stuart punt for 43 yds, downed at the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
97.9%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+3
97.9%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
97.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
97.9%
James Smith punt for 32 yds , - Rollins-Davis returns for no gain to the APeay 21 - Rollins-Davis fumbled, recovered by APeay Trent Taylor AUSTINPEAY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the APeay 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:042% → 2%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
97.6%
Tre Nation run for no gain to the APeay 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
97.6%
Tre Nation run for 1 yd to the APeay 22Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-2
97.5%
Tre Nation run for a loss of 2 yards to the APeay 20Similar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 11
OWN 20
+17
97.6%
Devin Stuart punt for 50 yds , Devin Gray returns for 17 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:3598% → 98%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
97.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 11 yds to the APeay 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
97.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 8 yds to the APeay 34Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+5
97.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 5 yds to the APeay 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
97.7%
Hayden Moore run for 9 yds to the APeay 20Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+4
97.7%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the APeay 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
97.7%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
97.7%
Hayden Moore run for no gain to the APeay 16Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
97.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 16 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 4:042% → 5%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
97.7%
Josh Alexander run for 9 yds to the APeay 28Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+1
97.6%
Kentel Williams run for 1 yd to the APeay 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
97.7%
Kentel Williams run for 2 yds to the APeay 31Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
97.7%
JaVaughn Craig pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+16
97.8%
JaVaughn Craig run for 1 yd to the APeay 32 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Grant Coleman) to the APeay 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
97.6%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 4 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+18
97.5%
- Rollins-Davis run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Tyrell Gilbert) to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
97.4%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Josh Alexander for 13 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
97.4%
Kentel Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+19
94.7%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Kentel Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Logan Birchfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
96.0%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
95.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
95.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas Geddis, broken up by Trent TaylorSimilar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
95.7%
James Smith punt for 64 yds, downed at the APeay 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
95.2%
JaVaughn Craig run for 3 yds to the APeay 11Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
95.2%
Josh Alexander run for no gain to the APeay 11Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+2
95.3%
JaVaughn Craig run for 2 yds to the APeay 13Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 5
OWN 13
+6
95.4%
Devin Stuart punt for 36 yds , Devin Gray returns for 6 yds to the APeay 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:4096% → 97%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
95.5%
Mike Boone run for 25 yds to the APeay 18 Mike Boone fumbled, forced by Malik Boynton, recovered by Cincy for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
95.7%
Mike Boone run for 7 yds to the APeay 11Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+2
95.7%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the APeay 9Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
95.5%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the APeay 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 6 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 13INT
13 plays · 73 yds · 2:014% → 5%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
96.5%
JaVaughn Craig run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
50
+7
96.0%
JaVaughn Craig run for 7 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+8
95.9%
Kentel Williams run for 8 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
95.8%
JaVaughn Craig pass incomplete to Kadeem GoulbourneSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
95.8%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Kentel Williams for 15 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
95.1%
JaVaughn Craig run for 2 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+13
95.1%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Gorel Soumare for 13 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
95.1%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
95.1%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.0%
JaVaughn Craig pass intercepted Bryan Wright return for 2 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
95.6%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
95.7%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+14
95.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 14 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
96.0%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
96.0%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+2
95.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 2 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
95.6%
James Smith punt for 38 yds, fair catch by - Rollins-Davis at the APeay 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
94.7%
Kentel Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the APeay 1 Kentel Williams fumbled, forced by Perry Young, recovered by APeay Kentel WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 22
OWN 1
0
94.8%
Prince Momodu run for no gain to the APeay 1Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 22
OWN 1
0
95.0%
JaVaughn Craig pass incomplete to DJ MontgomerySimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 22
OWN 1
+18
95.2%
Devin Stuart punt for 43 yds , Devin Gray returns for 18 yds to the APeay 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17MISSED FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4095% → 94%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
95.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 5 yds to the APeay 21 for a 1ST down AUSTINPEAY Penalty, personal foul (Matthew Gayle) to the APeay 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
95.1%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the APeay 11Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
95.1%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the APeay 8Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
94.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
94.4%
Andrew Gantz 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
93.5%
JaVaughn Craig run for 2 yds to the APeay 22 AUSTINPEAY Penalty, Offensive holding (Byron Glass) to the APeay 12Similar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 18
OWN 12
+4
93.5%
- Rollins-Davis run for 4 yds to the APeay 16Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+2
93.6%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 2 yds to the APeay 18Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-7
94.0%
CRAIG, JaVaughn pass complete to WILLIAMS, Kente for 12 yards to the APSU30 (PIERCE,Davin), PENALTY APSU pass interference 7 yards to the APSU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 19
OWN 11
0
94.0%
JaVaughn Craig pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 19
OWN 11
+1
94.1%
Devin Stuart punt for 38 yds , Devin Gray returns for 1 yd to the Cincy 12 CINCINNATI Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:4895% → 97%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
94.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 17 yds to the APeay 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
94.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+21
94.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 21 yds to the APeay 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
94.9%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the APeay 19Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
94.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 5 yds to the APeay 14Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+5
94.5%
MOORE,Hayden pass incomplete to COGSWELL,Tyler, PENALTY APSU offside (WILLIAMS, Jason) 5 yards to the APSU9, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
94.9%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the APeay 6Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
94.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q3 3:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 6 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 20TD
17 plays · 66 yds · 6:434% → 18%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
95.7%
NATION, Tre rush for 2 yards to the APSU36 (GILBERT,Tyrell), PENALTY APSU holding (GLASS, Byron) 10 yards to the APSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+15
96.0%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to James Coleman for 15 yds to the APeay 39Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-5
95.4%
OATSVALL, Jerem rush for 3 yards to the APSU42 (MINOR,Jaylyin), PENALTY APSU illegal formation 5 yards to the APSU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
95.8%
- Rollins-Davis run for 1 yd to the APeay 35Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+9
96.1%
Jeremiah Oatsvall run for 9 yds to the APeay 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
95.5%
Tre Nation run for no gain to the APeay 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
95.3%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass incomplete to Kentel WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+11
95.5%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to DJ Montgomery for 11 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
95.1%
Kentel Williams run for 1 yd to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Perry Young) to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
94.5%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass incomplete to Josh AlexanderSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
94.7%
Jeremiah Oatsvall run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+7
95.1%
Tre Nation run for 7 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 20
-5
95.1%
AUSTINPEAY Penalty, false start (Max Ewoldt) to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+13
95.4%
Jeremiah Oatsvall run for 13 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
94.5%
Tre Nation run for 1 yd to the Cincy 11Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
81.7%
Josh Alexander run for 11 yds for a TD, (Logan Birchfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
91.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 7 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+7
92.4%
Mike Boone run for 7 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
92.5%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 7
50
+4
92.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 4 yds to the APeay 46Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
92.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Kordell JacksonSimilar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
91.2%
James Smith punt for 36 yds, downed at the APeay 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
85.9%
DeAngelo Wilson run for 1 yd to the APeay 11Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 9
OWN 11
-5
86.2%
CRAIG, JaVaughn rush for 7 yards to the APSU18 (STATHAM,Tyquan), PENALTY APSU illegal formation 5 yards to the APSU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 14
OWN 6
-3
86.5%
Josh Alexander run for a loss of 3 yards to the APeay 3Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 17
OWN 3
+8
87.4%
Kentel Williams run for 8 yds to the APeay 11Similar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
87.6%
Devin Stuart punt for 31 yds, downed at the APeay 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:5792% → 97%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+26
92.3%
Mike Boone run for 26 yds to the APeay 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
92.5%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the APeay 12Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+9
92.5%
Mike Boone run for 9 yds to the APeay 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
93.7%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the APeay 3Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.3%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 53 yds · 2:124% → 3%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
96.5%
JaVaughn Craig run for 19 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
96.3%
Kentel Williams run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+4
96.1%
JaVaughn Craig run for 4 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
96.2%
JaVaughn Craig pass incomplete, broken up by Marquise CopelandSimilar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+3
97.0%
Kentel Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
96.6%
Kentel Williams run for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+13
96.5%
Kentel Williams run for 13 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
96.5%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 6 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+1
97.1%
Ahmaad Tanner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 5Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+2
97.3%
JaVaughn Craig run for 2 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-4
97.3%
Kentel Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
98.2%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 6Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 11
OWN 6
-1
98.2%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 5Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 12
OWN 5
-1
98.2%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:41
Josh Alexander run for 11 yds for a TD, (Logan Birchfield KICK)
-12.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:36
DeAngelo Wilson run for 1 yd to the APeay 11
-5.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:41
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 7 yds to the Cincy 40
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com