2017 · Week 1 · Aug 26, 2017 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreUSF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:29 · Davion Sutton run for 7 yds to the SJSt 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:11: Bailey Gaither 6 Yd pass from Josh Love (Bryce Crawford PAT blocked) — SJSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:25: D'Ernest Johnson 2 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +4.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q2 7:13: Temi Alaka 49 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +5.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:10: D'Ernest Johnson 50 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +4.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:35: Darius Tice 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +7.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 12 of 14USF made the numbers' call on 11 of 15
- Q1 14:07SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snapGo for it10.5%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.5%average punt
- Q1 13:03USF 4th & 9 at USF 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snapGo for it88.9%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.0%average punt
- Q1 11:55SJSU 4th & 1 at USF 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.5%71% to convertField goal11.4%−0.185% to makePunt10.9%−0.6average punt
- Q1 11:24SJSU 4th & 15 at USF 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snapGo for it11.5%−0.115% to convertField goalTheir call11.6%80% to makePunt11.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:48USF 4th & 25 at USF 10, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snapGo for it87.0%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.2%average punt
- Q1 6:57USF 4th & 1 at USF 34, down 10Close callPunted · 84.7% before the snapGo for it84.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 6:06SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 25, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snapGo for it15.8%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q1 3:14USF 4th & 15 at USF 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snapGo for it80.5%−0.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.4%average punt
- Q1 1:48USF 4th & 11 at USF 15, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snapGo for it76.9%−1.025% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.9%average punt
- Q1 0:26SJSU 4th & 1 at USF 33, up 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.9%71% to convertField goal25.6%−1.349% to makePunt25.1%−1.8average punt
- Q2 9:25USF 4th & 2 at SJSU 2, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.4%48% to convertField goal70.9%−1.594% to makePunt65.2%−7.2average punt
- Q2 5:57SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 34, down 5Close callPunted · 18.6% before the snapGo for it19.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.4%−0.6average punt
- Q2 3:31USF 4th & 7 at SJSU 46, up 5Close callPunted · 81.3% before the snapGo for it81.3%37% to convertField goal80.5%−0.923% to makePuntTheir call81.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:22SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 13, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snapGo for it17.0%−1.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.5%average punt
- Q2 1:10SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 24, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snapGo for it13.1%−0.347% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.5%average punt
- Q3 14:08USF 4th & 11 at USF 25, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snapGo for it85.3%−1.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.6%average punt
- Q3 12:32SJSU 4th & 8 at USF 49, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snapGo for it14.1%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.5%average punt
- Q3 10:48USF 4th & 2 at USF 12, up 12Close callPunted · 86.0% before the snapGo for it87.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 9:41SJSU 4th & 11 at SJSU 48, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snapGo for it13.7%−0.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.4%average punt
- Q3 7:43USF 4th & 1 at SJSU 7, up 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.4%70% to convertField goal85.3%−2.191% to makePunt79.3%−8.1average punt
- Q3 6:24SJSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 28, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snapGo for it7.7%−0.736% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.3%average punt
- Q3 5:18USF 4th & 15 at USF 48, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snapGo for it94.8%−1.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%average punt
- Q3 2:22USF 4th & 12 at USF 35, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.1%−1.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%average punt
- Q3 1:03SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 32, down 19Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it6.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.8%−1.1average punt
- Q4 14:54USF 4th & 1 at USF 32, up 19Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it97.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%−0.7average punt
- Q4 13:18SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 45, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.3%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q4 7:13USF 4th & 10 at SJSU 44, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.2%−0.130% to convertField goal98.0%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call98.3%average punt
- Q4 5:41SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 34, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q4 2:29USF 4th & 1 at SJSU 30, up 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.1%71% to convertField goal98.7%−0.456% to makePunt98.4%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 8:28SJSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.5%97% to makeGo for two14.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:11SJSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call21.7%97% to makeGo for two21.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:41USF Touchdown, down 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.5%97% to makeGo for two77.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:25USF Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.0%97% to makeGo for two77.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:13USF Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.7%97% to makeGo for two81.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:10USF Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.6%97% to makeGo for two86.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:35USF Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:57USF Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:25SJSU Touchdown, down 20 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call2.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two2.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSJSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:418% → 8%
Q1 14:07
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+56
8.4%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSU 6 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Donelle Thomas) to the SFla 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5492% → 91%
SJSUDrive 3FG9 plays · 5 yds · 1:299% → 10%
Q1 12:35
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+6
9.1%
Josh Love pass complete to Malike Roberson for 6 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
9.5%
Love, Josh pass incomplete to Humphreys, Billy, PENALTY SJSU ineligible downfield on pass (Gonzalez, Chris) 5 yards to the SOUFLA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 15
OPP 17
0
9.6%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Hartley, broken up by Mazzi WilkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -15 yds · 1:2690% → 90%
Q1 10:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-7
10.0%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Owen Roberts for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 13 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Quinton Flowers) to the SFla 13Similar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
10.5%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SFla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD6 plays · 47 yds · 1:1211% → 12%
USFDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1788% → 87%
Q1 6:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
12.7%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4313% → 13%
Q1 6:20
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
13.1%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Tre Hartley, broken up by Auggie SanchezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4187% → 84%
SJSUDrive 9TD1 play · 6 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
19.9%
Bailey Gaither 6 Yd pass from Josh Love (Bryce Crawford PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0882% → 81%
SJSUDrive 11DOWNS6 plays · 21 yds · 1:1722% → 23%
Q1 1:35
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+10
22.0%
Josh Love pass complete to Justin Holmes for 10 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
22.6%
Josh Love pass complete to Brandon Monroe for 3 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
23.0%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Justin Holmes, broken up by Mike HamptonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12TD7 plays · 66 yds · 1:3680% → 81%
SJSUDrive 13INT5 plays · 39 yds · 0:3820% → 21%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
19.7%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 9 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Tajee Fullwood) to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
21.2%
Josh Love pass intercepted Nico Sawtelle return for no gain to the SFla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14TD12 plays · 69 yds · 3:1679% → 81%
Q2 12:32
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+19
21.1%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 19 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
21.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell Wilcox, broken up by Trevon BierriaSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
20.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 9 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15INT8 plays · 33 yds · 1:4220% → 24%
Q2 8:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
20.2%
Josh Love sacked by Kirk Livingstone for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
19.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Josh Oliver for 13 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+25
21.5%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 25 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+27
23.6%
Josh Love pass intercepted Devin Abraham return for 27 yds to the SFla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD3 plays · 59 yds · 0:1780% → 85%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
14.9%
Temi Alaka 49 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:0716% → 16%
USFDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 2:1984% → 84%
Q2 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+15
16.4%
Flowers, Quinton pass incomplete to Salomon, Darnell, PENALTY SJSU pass interference (Chachere, Andre) 15 yards to the SOUFLA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
15.3%
Flowers, Quinton pass complete to Salomon, Darnell for 12 yards to the SJSU48, PENALTY SOUFLA illegal touching (Salomon, Darnell) 0 yards to the SOUFLA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
16.2%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:0216% → 16%
Q2 2:42
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+5
15.4%
Love, Josh pass incomplete to Oliver, Josh, PENALTY SOUFLA offside (Pinkney, Kelvin) 5 yards to the SJSU13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SJSU.Similar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
16.5%
Josh Love pass incomplete to Josh Oliver, broken up by Greg ReavesSimilar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
15.6%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20TD1 play · 50 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4412% → 12%
USFDrive 22END OF HALF6 plays · 25 yds · 1:0289% → 88%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
11.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darius Tice for 5 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+15
10.5%
Flowers, Quinton pass incomplete to Valdes-Scantling, Marquez, PENALTY SJSU pass interference (Monroe, Dakari) 15 yards to the SJSU47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
10.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to DeVontres Dukes, broken up by Jermaine KellySimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
12.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive Offside (Tre Webb) to the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4288% → 87%
SJSUDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:2813% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3688% → 88%
Q3 10:48
4TH & 2
OWN 12
0
12.2%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Thai Cottrell at the SJSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0713% → 12%
USFDrive 27TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0089% → 96%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+50
11.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 50 yds to the SJSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 28PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:117% → 7%
USFDrive 29PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5697% → 96%
Q3 5:51
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-4
3.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 47Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
3.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Chris Barr, broken up by Tre WebbSimilar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
3.9%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 30INT7 plays · 43 yds · 1:207% → 7%
Q3 4:44
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+25
6.2%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 25 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
6.9%
Josh Love pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 10 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+21
7.2%
Josh Love pass intercepted Mazzi Wilkins return for 21 yds to the SFla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 31PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2397% → 97%
SJSUDrive 32PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:076% → 6%
USFDrive 33PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0097% → 97%
Q4 14:54
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
2.6%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 34PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 1:355% → 4%
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
5.1%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Josh Oliver, broken up by Ronnie HogginsSimilar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+17
5.0%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for 17 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
4.8%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Justin Holmes, broken up by Ronnie HogginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 35TD11 plays · 86 yds · 3:1498% → 100%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
2.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+9
1.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 9 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
1.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 14 yds to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 36TD8 plays · 65 yds · 1:210% → 2%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
0.3%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 24 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
0.3%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for 5 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+7
0.3%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Josh Oliver for 7 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
0.2%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Justin Holmes for 2 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+22
2.0%
Justin Holmes 22 Yd pass from Montel Aaron (Bryce Crawford PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 37PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5299% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 38PUNT7 plays · 33 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
1.3%
Montel Aaron pass complete to Tre Hartley for 9 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
1.0%
Montel Aaron pass incomplete to Justin Holmes, broken up by Jaymon ThomasSimilar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
1.0%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 44 yds , Tyre McCants returns for no gain to the SFla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 39END OF GAME15 plays · 70 yds · 5:0199% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:35
Darius Tice 1 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
-7.5
TD · Q2 7:13
Temi Alaka 49 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
-5.7
TD · Q2 9:25
D'Ernest Johnson 2 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
-4.6