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ME

Maine 31 at Massachusetts 44

MASS
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Fenway Park
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadME aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreME score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:11 · Logan Laurent punt for 36 yds , Earnest Edwards returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 179Pregame prior+4.2Home team on offense+16.1Score differential+2.1Garbage-time factor+11.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:00: Chris Ferguson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Briggs KICK) — ME win probability +4.6 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:00: Josh Mack run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Ferguson pass to Drew Belcher for Two-Point Conversion) — ME win probability +16.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:42: Andy Isabella 14 Yd pass from Andrew Ford (Logan Laurent Kick), (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +11.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:08: Chris Ferguson pass intercepted for a TD Lee Moses return for 70 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent PAT BLOCKED) — MASS win probability +10.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:46: Josh Mack run for 37 yds for a TD MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Brandon Briggs KICK) — ME win probability +15.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ME made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:32ME 4th & 9 at MASS 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04MASS 4th & 5 at ME 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:29ME 4th & 2 at ME 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:33MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:07ME 4th & 6 at ME 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ME 4th & 4 at ME 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:20MASS 4th & 8 at ME 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:00MASS 4th & 19 at MASS 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:05ME 4th & 15 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:54MASS 4th & 1 at ME 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.1%−1.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:30MASS 4th & 13 at ME 34, up 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.8%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:00MASS 4th & 15 at MASS 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:35ME 4th & 3 at ME 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:20MASS 4th & 6 at ME 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:11ME 4th & 10 at ME 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−2.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00ME 4th & 5 at ME 37, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:50MASS 4th & 26 at midfield, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:11MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:55ME 4th & 6 at ME 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.1%−2.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:57ME 4th & 2 at MASS 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−1.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:57ME 4th & 5 at MASS 5, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ME made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:29MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:16ME Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 11:32MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:02MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:00ME Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:00ME Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:42MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:08MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:46ME Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:57MASS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:3189% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
89.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 16 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
89.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 28 yds to the Maine 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
89.0%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the Maine 33Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+33
88.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 33 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:4489% → 89%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
88.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 7 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+3
88.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 3 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-14
88.6%
Bilal Ally run for 1 yd to the UMass 45 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (Lukas Kolter) to the UMass 30Similar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 24
OWN 30
+1
88.5%
Bilal Ally run for 1 yd to the UMass 31Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 23
OWN 31
+69
88.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 69 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
88.5%
Josh Mack run for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
50
0
88.4%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jaleel Reed, broken up by Isaiah RodgersSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
50
+1
88.4%
Josh Mack run for 1 yd to the UMass 49Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
88.5%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Earnest Edwards, broken up by Lee MosesSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
88.6%
Derek Deoul punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Andy Isabella at the UMass 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:0088% → 89%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+24
88.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 24 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
88.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 15 yds to the Maine 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
88.6%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
88.6%
Marquis Young run for 5 yds to the Maine 40Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
88.6%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Sadiq PalmerSimilar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
88.5%
Logan Laurent punt for 35 yds, downed at the Maine 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
88.2%
Mack, Josh rush for 5 yards to the MAINE10 (BURCH, Cycoby), PENALTY MAINE holding (Reddington, Joh) 2 yards to the MAINE3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+11
88.2%
Josh Mack run for 11 yds to the Maine 14Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+1
88.2%
Josh Mack run for 1 yd to the Maine 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
88.2%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jaleel ReedSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
88.2%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 3 yds to the Maine 18Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+5
88.3%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jason Simonovich for 5 yds to the Maine 23Similar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
88.3%
Derek Deoul punt for 49 yds, downed at the UMass 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
87.8%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
87.8%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+3
87.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 3 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+4
87.6%
Logan Laurent punt for 53 yds , Earnest Edwards returns for 4 yds to the Maine 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
87.5%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jared OsumahSimilar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
87.6%
Josh Mack run for 4 yds to the Maine 21Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
87.7%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jared Osumah, broken up by Bakhari GoodsonSimilar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
87.8%
Derek Deoul punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Andy Isabella at the UMass 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 2:0888% → 91%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
87.8%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the UMass 41Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
87.7%
Andy Isabella run for 1 yd to the UMass 42Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+15
87.5%
FORD, Andrew pass incomplete to ISABELLA, Andy, PENALTY MAINE pass interference (DeVaughn, Jeffr) 15 yards to the MAINE43, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
88.0%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the Maine 42Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
87.9%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+15
87.7%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Jessie Britt for a 1ST down MAINE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jaron Grayer) to the Maine 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
88.0%
MAINE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Maine 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
90.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 12 yds for a TD MAINE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0210% → 10%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.6%
Josh Mack run for 4 yds to the Maine 29Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
89.5%
MAINE Penalty, false start (Jason Simonovich) to the Maine 24Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
89.6%
Josh Mack run for 2 yds to the Maine 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
89.7%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jared Osumah for 5 yds to the Maine 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
89.7%
Derek Deoul punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Andy Isabella at the UMass 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:5490% → 92%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
90.3%
Andrew Ford sacked by Charles Mitchell for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 18Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-5
90.2%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UMass 13Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+2
90.2%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 15Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+22
90.1%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 22 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.4%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Jessie Britt, broken up by Deshawn StevensSimilar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+38
90.3%
Marquis Young run for 38 yds to the Maine 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
90.7%
Andrew Ford sacked by Kayon Whitaker for a loss of 6 yards to the Maine 31Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 16
OPP 31
0
90.5%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 16
OPP 31
+8
90.4%
Marquis Young run for 8 yds to the Maine 23Similar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
92.3%
Logan Laurent 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 12TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:209% → 14%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
91.1%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Josh Mack for 22 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
90.4%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-10
90.5%
Mack, Josh rush for 1 yard to the UMASS34 (BYCZKO, Jake), PENALTY MAINE holding (O'Neil, Brenden) 10 yards to the UMASS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+29
91.2%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 29 yds to the UMass 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
90.3%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 7 yds to the UMass 9Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
85.8%
Chris Ferguson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Briggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
86.8%
Andrew Ford sacked by Sterling Sheffield for a loss of 10 yards to the UMass 15Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+11
86.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 11 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-10
86.4%
FORD, Andrew pass complete to BRENEMAN, Adam for 12 yards to the UMASS38 (Hall, Tayvon), PENALTY UMASS holding 10 yards to the UMASS16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
86.3%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
85.9%
Logan Laurent punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Earnest Edwards at the Maine 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
86.7%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Earnest Edwards for 15 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
86.2%
Jaquan Blair run for a loss of 10 yards to the Maine 45Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 20
OWN 45
0
87.2%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jaleel ReedSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 20
OWN 45
+5
87.4%
Ferguson, Chris pass incomplete to Edwards, Earnes (GOODSON, B.), PENALTY UMASS offside defense (DOWNEY, Da'Sean) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 15
50
0
87.3%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 15
50
0
87.7%
Derek Deoul punt for 45 yds, downed at the UMass 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15SF
2 plays · -5 yds · 1:0887% → 86%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
86.5%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the UMass 5Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-5
85.9%
Andrew Ford run for a loss of 5 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 16INT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:3914% → 12%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
85.7%
Josh Mack run for a loss of 5 yards to the Maine 36Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 15
OWN 36
-1
87.6%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Josh Mack for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 35Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+7
88.0%
Chris Ferguson pass intercepted Jesse Monteiro return for 7 yds to the Maine 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 9 yds · 1:2488% → 86%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
88.3%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Maine 48Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+10
87.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 10 yds to the Maine 38Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
88.4%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Bilal AllySimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+4
87.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 4 yds to the Maine 34Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+3
87.6%
Nick Orekoya run for 3 yds to the Maine 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
88.7%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Darrius HartSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-3
88.6%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the Maine 34Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 13
OPP 34
0
87.6%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 13
OPP 34
0
86.1%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
86.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 19TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:0014% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
86.1%
Josh Mack run for 2 yds to the Maine 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+21
86.2%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jaleel Reed for 6 yds to the Maine 28 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, roughing passer (Da'Sean Downey) to the Maine 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
85.4%
Josh Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
85.6%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jaleel ReedSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+31
86.2%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Earnest Edwards for 31 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
83.5%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 5 yds to the UMass 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+4
83.5%
Josh Mack run for 4 yds to the UMass 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+5
84.4%
Ferguson, Chris rush for no gain to the UMASS18 (BARR, Bryton;ADDO, Jarell), PENALTY UMASS offside defense (HOLINES, Sha-Ki) 5 yards to the UMASS13, 1ST DOWN MAINE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
83.5%
Josh Mack run for 6 yds to the UMass 7Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+4
83.5%
Josh Mack run for 4 yds to the UMass 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 3
OPP 0
0
83.5%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Drew Belcher, broken up by Tyler Hayes MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the UMass 3Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.4%
Ferguson, Chris rush for no gain to the UMASS1, PENALTY UMASS face mask (DOWNEY, Da'Sean) 0 yards to the UMASS1, 1ST DOWN MAINE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
83.5%
Josh Mack run for 2 yds to the UMass 1Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.4%
Josh Mack run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Ferguson pass to Drew Belcher for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.4%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.1%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
73.0%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UMass 20Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
72.8%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
72.3%
Logan Laurent punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Earnest Edwards at the Maine 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
71.0%
Josh Mack run for 4 yds to the Maine 35Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
70.3%
Josh Mack run for 3 yds to the Maine 38Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
69.9%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jared Osumah, broken up by Isaiah RodgersSimilar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
72.1%
Derek Deoul punt for 27 yds, downed at the UMass 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
73.8%
Andrew Ford sacked by Deshawn Stevens for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 28Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+38
73.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 38 yds to the Maine 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
77.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 4 yds to the Maine 30Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
77.4%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-5
76.3%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Andy Isabella) to the Maine 35Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+5
75.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 5 yds to the Maine 30Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 6
OPP 30
-3
74.4%
Andrew Ford sacked by Connor Walsh for a loss of 3 yards to the Maine 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 29%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
68.4%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Earnest Edwards, broken up by Jesse MonteiroSimilar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
68.9%
Josh Mack run for no gain to the Maine 33Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
70.3%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jason SimonovichSimilar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+15
71.2%
Derek Deoul punt for 42 yds , Andy Isabella returns for 15 yds to the UMass 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:2274% → 87%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
73.6%
Michael Curtis run for 3 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
74.3%
Bilal Ally run for 1 yd to the UMass 44Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+12
73.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 12 yds to the Maine 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
75.1%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 17 yds to the Maine 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
76.0%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Brennon Dingle, broken up by Joshua HuffmanSimilar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
75.9%
FORD, Andrew pass incomplete to BRITT, Jessie, PENALTY MAINE pass interference (Grayer, Jaron) 13 yards to the MAINE14, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
87.2%
Andy Isabella 14 Yd pass from Andrew Ford (Logan Laurent Kick), (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 25INT TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:3417% → 9%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+35
82.6%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 35 yds to the Maine 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
80.0%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Earnest EdwardsSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
80.7%
Josh Mack run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 9
50
+70
91.0%
Chris Ferguson pass intercepted for a TD Lee Moses return for 70 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:089% → 8%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
91.4%
Josh Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 30Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+7
92.2%
Chris Ferguson run for 7 yds to the Maine 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
91.4%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jaleel ReedSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
91.8%
Derek Deoul punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Andy Isabella at the UMass 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 27PUNT
13 plays · 19 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
94.5%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+4
94.7%
Bilal Ally run for 4 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
94.8%
Bilal Ally run for 2 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
94.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 8 yds to the Maine 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
94.9%
Bilal Ally run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 11
50
0
94.7%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 11
50
+16
94.5%
Marquis Young run for 16 yds to the Maine 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
94.9%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the Maine 31Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
94.9%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the Maine 31Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-15
94.7%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Marquis Young) to the Maine 46Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 22
OPP 46
+1
94.4%
Bilal Ally run for 1 yd to the Maine 45Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 21
OPP 45
-5
93.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 26
50
0
93.9%
Logan Laurent punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Maine 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 28TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:066% → 23%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
94.0%
Josh Mack run for 5 yds to the Maine 20Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+48
93.9%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Drew Belcher for 48 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
92.1%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jason Simonovich, broken up by Jarell AddoSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-5
92.2%
MAINE Penalty, false start (Jaleel Reed) to the UMass 37Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+37
77.1%
Josh Mack run for 37 yds for a TD MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Brandon Briggs KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3588% → 88%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.6%
Marquis Young run for 5 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
88.0%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
88.2%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Tayvon HallSimilar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+36
87.5%
Logan Laurent punt for 36 yds , Earnest Edwards returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 30DOWNS
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 19%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
78.1%
MAINE Penalty, false start (Isaiah Brooks) to the Maine 26Similar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 15
OWN 26
-10
80.3%
Mack, Josh rush for 6 yards to the MAINE32 (CASALI, Steve), PENALTY MAINE holding (Mulvey, Christo) 10 yards to the MAINE16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 25
OWN 16
-4
80.5%
Chris Ferguson sacked by Sha-Ki Holines for a loss of 4 yards to the Maine 12Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 29
OWN 12
0
81.0%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Josh Mack for no gain to the Maine 12Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 29
OWN 12
+23
82.1%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 23 yds to the Maine 35Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 6
OPP 0
0
75.7%
Ferguson, Chris pass complete to Blair, Jaquan for 9 yards to the MAINE44 (ADDO, Jarell), PENALTY MAINE personal foul off-setting, PENALTY MAINE illegal shift off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
81.3%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jaleel Reed, broken up by Colbert CalhounSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 31TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:1494% → 99%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
94.1%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the Maine 33Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+33
98.6%
Marquis Young run for 33 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 32DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
97.1%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Earnest EdwardsSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
97.1%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Josh Mack for 8 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
96.7%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Drew BelcherSimilar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+11
97.0%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jaleel Reed for 11 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
96.4%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Drew Belcher for 18 yds to the UMass 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
96.4%
Ferguson, Chris pass incomplete to Reed, Jaleel (MONTEIRO, Jesse), PENALTY UMASS holding (MONTEIRO, Jesse) 6 yards to the UMASS5, 1ST DOWN MAINE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
96.4%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jaleel Reed, broken up by Lee MosesSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
96.4%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Josh Mack, broken up by Da'Sean DowneySimilar
Q4 1:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
96.7%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jaquan Blair, broken up by Isaiah RodgersSimilar
Q4 1:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
96.8%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jaleel Reed, broken up by James Bowe Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:00
Josh Mack run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Ferguson pass to Drew Belcher for Two-Point Conversion)
-16.1
TD · Q4 6:46
Josh Mack run for 37 yds for a TD MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Brandon Briggs KICK)
-15.1
TD · Q3 2:42
Andy Isabella 14 Yd pass from Andrew Ford (Logan Laurent Kick), (Logan Laurent KICK)
+11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com