2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreGASO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:15 · Nick Orekoya run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:24: Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 68 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +2.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:47: Bilal Ally run for 19 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +5.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:12: Andrew Ford pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 43 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent PAT MISSED) — MASS win probability +9.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:53: Kado Brown run for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +4.8 pts (now 9%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:29: Bilal Ally run for 2 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) GA SOUTHERN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — MASS win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 9:37GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 45, down 7Close callPunted · 29.0% before the snapGo for it29.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:15GASO 4th & 7 at MASS 24, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.2% before the snapGo for it12.8%−0.236% to convertField goalTheir call12.9%68% to makePunt9.5%−3.4average punt
- Q2 7:05GASO 4th & 17 at GASO 31, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snapGo for it15.3%−2.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.6%average punt
- Q3 15:00MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 48, up 31Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 12:02GASO 4th & 16 at GASO 35, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q3 10:41GASO 4th & 6 at MASS 24, down 31Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%−<0.139% to convertField goal1.5%68% to makePunt1.1%−0.4average punt
- Q3 8:14GASO 4th & 10 at MASS 17, down 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call1.1%80% to makePunt0.7%−0.4average punt
- Q3 2:50GASO 4th & 12 at MASS 27, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−0.223% to convertField goal0.4%62% to makePunt-0.2%−0.7average punt
- Q4 11:46GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 41, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 7:46MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 49, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 7:39GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 16, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 8 of 8GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:37MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.0%97% to makeGo for two71.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:24MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.0%97% to makeGo for two74.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:10MASS Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.8%97% to makeGo for two78.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:02GASO Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.0%97% to makeGo for two23.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:47MASS Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.1%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:33MASS Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.1%97% to makeGo for two90.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:12MASS Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:53GASO Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.2%97% to makeGo for two7.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:29MASS Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:46MASS Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASODrive 1FUMBLE2 plays · 76 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+71
76.0%
Kado Brown pass complete to Mark Michaud for 71 yds Mark Michaud fumbled, forced by Isaiah Rodgers, recovered by UMass Jarell AddoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2TD12 plays · 97 yds · 5:0576% → 77%
Q1 14:42
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+16
76.0%
Ross Comis pass complete to Adam Breneman for 16 yds to the UMass 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
76.0%
Ross Comis run for 7 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive holding (Tomarcio Reese) to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
50
+10
76.0%
Ross Comis pass complete to Adam Breneman for 10 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
76.0%
ALLY, Bilal rush for 4 yards to the GS5 (C. DeLaRosa;R. Byrd), PENALTY GS offside defense (T. Phillips) 5 yards to the GS4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.7%
Ross Comis pass complete to Adam Breneman for 1 yd for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 9:37
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+23
76.1%
Matt Flynn punt for 38 yds, downed at the UMASS 17 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, kick catching interference (Darrell Baker Jr.) to the UMass 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4TD1 play · 68 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
79.0%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 68 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6TD1 play · 26 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
82.0%
Ross Comis pass complete to Jessie Britt for 26 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7TD8 plays · 58 yds · 3:0819% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1580% → 86%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Adam Breneman for 2 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
79.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Adam Breneman for 14 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
80.7%
Ross Comis pass complete to Jessie Britt for 10 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (Tomarcio Reese) to the GeoSo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9FUMBLE4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 1:47
3RD & 7
OWN 19
-2
85.5%
Kado Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 18 Kado Brown fumbled, forced by Sha-Ki Holines, recovered by UMass Steve CasaliSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10FUMBLE4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0586% → 86%
GASODrive 11FG13 plays · 56 yds · 5:1014% → 16%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+5
85.3%
Kado Brown pass complete to Myles Campbell for 5 yds to the UMass 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4285% → 85%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
84.9%
FORD, Andrew sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UMASS21 (L. Hunt), PENALTY GS holding (D. Baker) 10 yards to the UMASS35, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
85.4%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Sadiq Palmer, broken up by Lane EctonSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+13
85.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 13 yds to the GeoSo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
85.4%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Jessie Britt, broken up by Chris DeLaRosaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 1:2816% → 14%
MASSDrive 14TD1 play · 43 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
96.2%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 43 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15TD9 plays · 45 yds · 3:193% → 9%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
96.7%
Kado Brown pass complete to Mark Michaud for 12 yds to the UMass 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+15
94.9%
K. Brown rush for loss of 4 yards to the UMASS34 (PATTON, Mario;BARR, Bryton), PENALTY UMASS face mask (HORN, Kyle) 15 yards to the UMASS15, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2494% → 98%
Q2 2:53
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+31
94.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 31 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
94.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 6 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+5
94.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Bilal Ally for 5 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
94.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 4 yds to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-5
94.5%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Ray Thomas-Ishman Sr.) to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+20
94.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 20 yds to the GeoSo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.4%
Bilal Ally run for 2 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) GA SOUTHERN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
98.4%
Kado Brown pass intercepted Lee Moses return for 5 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18END OF HALF4 plays · 38 yds · 0:1498% → 98%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
98.4%
FORD, Andrew pass incomplete to DINGLE, Brennon, PENALTY GS pass interference (J. Bowdry) 15 yards to the GS34, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
98.5%
Ross Comis pass complete to Adam Breneman for 7 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.6%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Lane EctonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+43
98.3%
Logan Laurent punt for 44 yds , Myles Campbell returns for 43 yds to the UMASS 9 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, illegal block (Sean Freeman) to the GeoSo 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 12:02
2ND & 17
OWN 34
-4
99.1%
Kado Brown sacked by Ali Ali-Musa for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 21
OWN 30
+5
99.1%
L. Anthony pass incomplete to M. Michaud, PENALTY UMASS offside defense (DOWNEY, Da'Sean) 5 yards to the GS35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
99.1%
Matt Flynn punt for 35 yds , Jessie Britt returns for no gain to the UMass 28 Jessie Britt fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Lane EctonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21FG9 plays · 11 yds · 2:271% → 1%
Q3 10:41
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+3
99.0%
Kado Brown run for 3 yds to the UMass 24 Kado Brown fumbled, forced by Steve Casali, recovered by GeoSoSimilar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+7
98.6%
LaBaron Anthony pass complete to Darion Anderson for 7 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
98.9%
LaBaron Anthony pass incomplete to Darion Anderson, broken up by Isaiah RodgersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22PUNT13 plays · 23 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+14
99.4%
Ross Comis pass complete to Marquis Young for 14 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+22
99.4%
Ross Comis pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 7 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
99.4%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Lukas Kolter) to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 17
OPP 22
-15
99.4%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (Sadiq Palmer) to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 34
OPP 39
-5
99.4%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Jessie Britt) to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 42
OPP 47
0
99.3%
Logan Laurent punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Myles Campbell at the GeoSo 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23DOWNS6 plays · 59 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MASSDrive 24TD6 plays · 70 yds · 3:14100% → 100%
GASODrive 25PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:46
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Matt Flynn punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Rodgers at the UMass 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 26PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q4 11:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+23
99.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 23 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Logan Laurent punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Myles Campbell at the GeoSo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 28END OF GAME9 plays · 49 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:12
Andrew Ford pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 43 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent PAT MISSED)
+9.8
TD · Q1 1:47
Bilal Ally run for 19 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)
+5
TD · Q2 2:53
Kado Brown run for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)
-4.8