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MASS

Massachusetts 28 at Coastal Carolina 38

CCU
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:54 · Logan Laurent punt for 44 yds , Chris Jones returns for 9 yds to the UMass 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Home team on offense−0.8Pregame prior−3.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:47: Dalton Demos run for 22 yds for a TD, (Evan Rabon KICK) — CCU win probability +6.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:37: Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK) — MASS win probability +6.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:51: Osharmar Abercrombie run for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan Rabon KICK) — CCU win probability +10.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:51: Andrew Ford run for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK) — MASS win probability +14.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:48: Tyler Keane pass complete to Chris Jones for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan Rabon KICK) — CCU win probability +16.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MASS made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:56CCU 4th & 2 at MASS 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.8%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:41CCU 4th & 7 at CCU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:03MASS 4th & 14 at MASS 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:19CCU 4th & 1 at MASS 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:52MASS 4th & 1 at CCU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%−1.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−4.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:45CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:08CCU 4th & 11 at CCU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:54MASS 4th & 22 at MASS 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−5.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:24CCU 4th & 4 at MASS 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.4%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:15MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−3.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:07CCU 4th & 20 at CCU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−4.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:11MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:42MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00CCU 4th & 17 at CCU 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−2.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:00MASS 4th & 14 at CCU 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−5.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:00CCU 4th & 7 at CCU 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:51MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:24CCU 4th & 1 at MASS 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−1.0
    86% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MASS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:21CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:48MASS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:47CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:37MASS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:51CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:51MASS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:48CCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:45CCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:10MASS Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CCUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:0443% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
43.1%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 5 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+11
43.1%
Alex James run for 11 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
43.1%
Dalton Demos run for 3 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+9
43.1%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 9 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
43.1%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 5 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
43.1%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Malcolm WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+3
44.3%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 3 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
44.1%
Evan Rabon punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Rodgers at the UMass 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
44.1%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 7 yds to the UMass 17Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+4
44.1%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the UMass 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
44.1%
Andrew Ford run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 17 Andrew Ford fumbled, forced by Tarron Jackson, recovered by CCaro Nicholas ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:5245% → 48%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
45.1%
Ky'Jon Tyler run for 2 yds to the UMass 15Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
45.1%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 5 yds to the UMass 10Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+9
44.9%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 9 yds to the UMass 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.3%
Dalton Demos run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Rabon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:2653% → 56%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
47.3%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+37
47.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 37 yds to the CCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
46.3%
FORD, Andrew pass incomplete to BRITT, Jessie (Howard, Amir), PENALTY COASTAL roughing passer (Tolbert, Ja'ree) 15 yards to the COASTAL18, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
46.2%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 14 yds to the CCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.7%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
45.2%
Marcus Outlow run for 4 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+12
45.2%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 12 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
45.9%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Chris JonesSimilar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-3
45.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by CCaro Tyler KeaneSimilar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+7
45.0%
Tyler Keane run for 7 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+1
45.0%
Evan Rabon punt for 41 yds , Isaiah Rodgers returns for 1 yd to the UMass 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
45.7%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 11Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 14
OWN 11
0
45.8%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Marquis YoungSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 14
OWN 11
0
46.2%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 14
OWN 11
+9
46.5%
Logan Laurent punt for 36 yds , Chris Jones returns for 9 yds to the UMass 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 2:3247% → 53%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
47.4%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 4 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
47.7%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 3 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
47.2%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 2 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+7
46.6%
Marcus Outlow run for 7 yds to the UMass 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
53.4%
Dalton Demos run for 22 yds for a TD, (Evan Rabon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8TD
16 plays · 63 yds · 5:0049% → 55%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
50.9%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Sadiq PalmerSimilar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
51.1%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 7 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+12
50.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 12 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
50.2%
Bilal Ally run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+10
50.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 10 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
50.0%
Bilal Ally run for 3 yds to the CCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
49.4%
FORD, Andrew rush for 11 yards to the COASTAL21, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UMASS holding (DRISCOLL, Jack) 10 yards to the COASTAL42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+9
50.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 9 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
49.5%
Andrew Ford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+10
50.9%
Marquis Young run for 10 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+10
53.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 10 yds to the CCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
51.6%
Nick Orekoya run for 2 yds to the CCaro 11Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-10
51.6%
FORD, Andrew rush for 3 yards to the COASTAL8, PENALTY UMASS holding (THOMAS SR., R.) 10 yards to the COASTAL21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 18
OPP 21
+21
44.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:5649% → 51%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
48.7%
Chris Jones run for 20 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
49.1%
Ky'Jon Tyler run for 1 yd to the CCaro 36Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
49.4%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Osharmar AbercrombieSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+8
48.5%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Larry Collins Jr. for 8 yds to the CCaro 44Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
51.4%
Evan Rabon punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Rodgers at the UMass 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 55 yds · 0:0051% → 54%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
49.4%
Ross Comis run for 1 yd to the UMass 10Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
49.0%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+29
49.6%
Ross Comis pass complete to Jessie Britt for 29 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
46.9%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+17
47.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Adam Breneman for 17 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
45.6%
Ross Comis run for 8 yds to the CCaro 36 Ross Comis fumbled, forced by C.J. Brewer, recovered by CCaro Jalin WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
51.9%
Marcus Outlow run for 7 yds to the CCaro 43Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
53.2%
Marcus Outlow run for 4 yds to the CCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
53.1%
Dalton Demos run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 7
50
+4
53.3%
Alex James run for 4 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 3
OPP 46
-8
53.1%
Dalton Demos run for a loss of 8 yards to the CCaro 46Similar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 11
OWN 46
+2
50.2%
Evan Rabon punt for 43 yds , Isaiah Rodgers returns for 2 yds to the UMass 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:4751% → 50%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
48.8%
Brennon Dingle run for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 8Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 15
OWN 8
0
49.8%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the UMass 8Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 15
OWN 8
-7
49.3%
Andrew Ford sacked by Tarron Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 1Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 22
OWN 1
+9
50.2%
Logan Laurent punt for 44 yds , Chris Jones returns for 9 yds to the UMass 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 36 yds · 1:1654% → 66%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
54.1%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 15 yds to the UMass 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+17
55.0%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 17 yds to the UMass 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.9%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan Rabon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
64.2%
YOUNG, Marquis rush for 5 yards to the UMASS31 (Carey, Preston), PENALTY UMASS holding (YERARDI, Mike) 10 yards to the UMASS16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 20
OWN 16
0
64.7%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the UMass 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:0338% → 57%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
62.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 12 yds to the UMass 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
61.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 15 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
59.9%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
60.7%
Marquis Young run for 13 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
59.3%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Anthony ChesleySimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
59.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 11 yds to the CCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
57.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 19 yds to the CCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
57.4%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Malik LeeSimilar
Q3 12:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
43.2%
Andrew Ford run for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:2151% → 59%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+25
51.4%
Alex James run for 25 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
54.3%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 5 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+17
54.6%
Shane Johnson run for 17 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
55.8%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 2 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+2
55.9%
Tyler Keane run for 2 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+2
55.1%
Dalton Demos pass complete to Alex James for 2 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
58.9%
Evan Rabon 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0045% → 41%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
54.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 23Similar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+2
56.0%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
56.4%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam Breneman, broken up by Shane JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+1
57.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 1 yd to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 12
OWN 26
+10
58.7%
Logan Laurent punt for 38 yds , Chris Jones returns for 10 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0061% → 56%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
61.3%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Ky'Jon TylerSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-10
60.1%
Abercrombie, O. rush for 8 yards to the UMASS46 (MOSES, Lee), PENALTY COASTAL holding (Carter, Trey) 10 yards to the COASTAL36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 20
OWN 36
0
58.1%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Ky'Jon Tyler, broken up by Mario PattonSimilar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 20
OWN 36
0
56.7%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Ky'Jon Tyler, broken up by Jackson PorterSimilar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 20
OWN 36
0
55.9%
Evan Rabon punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Andy Isabella at the UMass 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
56.4%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
56.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 5 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
57.0%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Sadiq Palmer, broken up by Laqavious PaulSimilar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+18
58.9%
Logan Laurent punt for 50 yds , Chris Jones returns for 18 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:3162% → 79%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
61.6%
Marcus Outlow run for 26 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
64.0%
Marcus Outlow run for 5 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
64.0%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Marcus OutlowSimilar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+14
62.5%
Keane, Tyler rush for 1 yard to the UMASS26 (FLANAGAN JR. L), PENALTY UMASS face mask (TIMITE, Charly) 14 yards to the UMASS13, 1ST DOWN COASTAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
78.5%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Chris Jones for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan Rabon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
75.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Travis Reynolds for 15 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
73.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 3 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
73.5%
Andrew Ford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+1
74.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 1 yd to the UMass 42Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
75.5%
Logan Laurent punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5077% → 80%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
77.1%
Dalton Demos run for 11 yds to the CCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
77.5%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 4 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+9
77.7%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 9 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
79.3%
Alex James run for no gain to the CCaro 44Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-4
78.8%
Dalton Demos run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 40
-5
80.8%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Ky'Jon Tyler) to the CCaro 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 35
+2
79.6%
Marcus Outlow run for 2 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 37
0
79.5%
Evan Rabon punt for 39 yds, downed at the UMass 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23MISSED FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:0919% → 14%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
81.2%
Andrew Ford run for 6 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
79.1%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 3 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+19
79.7%
Andy Isabella run for 19 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
77.1%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jessie Britt for 4 yds to the CCaro 44Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+25
77.1%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 25 yds to the CCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
75.1%
Marquis Young run for 10 yds to the CCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
75.1%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Sadiq Palmer, broken up by Anthony ChesleySimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
75.1%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Sadiq PalmerSimilar
Q4 11:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
82.3%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 14Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
83.6%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Sadiq PalmerSimilar
Q4 11:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+33
85.7%
Michael Schreiner 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
85.2%
Abercrombie, O. rush for 6 yards to the COASTAL26 (BARR, Bryton), PENALTY COASTAL holding (Kjosa, Maxwell) 10 yards to the COASTAL10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
85.0%
Ky'Jon Tyler run for no gain to the CCaro 10Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+6
84.8%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 6 yds to the CCaro 16Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+7
84.1%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Osharmar Abercrombie for 7 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
83.6%
Evan Rabon punt for 36 yds , Isaiah Rodgers returns for no gain to the UMass 42 Isaiah Rodgers fumbled, recovered by UMass Isaiah RodgersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0013% → 10%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
86.8%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 40Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
88.2%
Andrew Ford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
89.2%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
89.6%
Logan Laurent punt for 49 yds, downed at the CCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 26TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 4:0490% → 99%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
89.6%
Tyler Keane pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 9 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+14
90.0%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 14 yds to the CCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+45
90.1%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 45 yds to the UMass 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
91.2%
Marcus Outlow run for no gain to the UMass 21Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
91.2%
Tyler Keane pass incomplete to Marcus Outlow, broken up by Bryton BarrSimilar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+9
90.8%
Alex James run for 9 yds to the UMass 12Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+5
92.9%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 5 yds to the UMass 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.2%
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Rabon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 27TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 2:182% → 7%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
97.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 16 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+40
97.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 40 yds to the CCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
97.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 14 yds to the CCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
97.0%
Andrew Ford run for 6 yds to the CCaro 8Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+5
97.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 5 yds to the CCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
96.9%
Brennon Dingle run for 1 yd to the CCaro 2Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.0%
Andrew Ford run for 1 yd to the CCaro 1Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.9%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 47Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 14
OWN 47
-1
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:48
Tyler Keane pass complete to Chris Jones for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan Rabon KICK)
+16
TD · Q3 12:51
Andrew Ford run for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)
-14.2
TD · Q2 0:51
Osharmar Abercrombie run for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan Rabon KICK)
+10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com