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USM

Southern Miss 31 at UTSA 29

UTSA
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+5.3UTSA 79.3%Jared Sackett 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 13 · Q2 0:32
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:32 · Jared Sackett 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior+15.0Home team on offense+7.5Garbage-time factor+1.9Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:52: Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 20 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +19.8 pts (now 48%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:05: Keon Howard pass complete to Quez Watkins for 48 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +27.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:20: Ito Smith run for 89 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +21.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:33: Jared Sackett 44 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +16.6 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:48: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 24 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UTSA win probability +29.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:02UTSA 4th & 7 at USM 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34UTSA 4th & 18 at UTSA 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:24UTSA 4th & 7 at USM 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 13 at USM 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:17USM 4th & 2 at USM 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.8%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:17USM 4th & 13 at UTSA 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:44USM 4th & 3 at USM 24, down 3
    Close callPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:32UTSA 4th & 10 at USM 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:36USM 4th & 4 at UTSA 15, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−7.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:52UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−6.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 48, down 8
    Close callPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:33UTSA 4th & 5 at USM 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−10.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:56USM 4th & 6 at UTSA 7, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−10.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:34USM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:57UTSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:52USM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:05USM Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:20USM Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:48UTSA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:48UTSA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    21.3%−8.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 3:5878% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
78.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 16 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
78.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the TexSA 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+17
78.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 17 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
78.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
78.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+15
78.4%
Sturm sideline pass incomplete to Jones,B, QB hurry by HARRIS, L., PENALTY USM pass interference (APPLEWHITE, J.) 15 yards to the USM29, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-15
78.4%
Sturm sideline pass incomplete to Jones,B, PENALTY UTSA illegal block 15 yards to the USM44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 44
+22
78.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 7 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Darian Yancey) to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
78.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
78.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 3 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
78.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+38
77.8%
Jared Sackett 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:2822% → 24%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.6%
Tez Parks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+20
77.6%
Ito Smith run for 20 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
77.4%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
75.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 32 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
76.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 21Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-4
76.3%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Paxton Schrimsher for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 17Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
76.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
76.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 49 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+39
75.3%
Allenzae Staggers run for 39 yds to the TexSA 8 Allenzae Staggers fumbled, forced by Devron Davis, recovered by TexSA La'Kel BassSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 52 yds · 5:2275% → 74%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
75.4%
Tyrell Clay run for 7 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+1
75.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 1 yd to the TexSA 16Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+3
75.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 3 yds to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
75.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 14 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
75.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Tyrell ClaySimilar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
75.6%
Tyrell Clay run for 5 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+6
75.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 6 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
76.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 13 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
76.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
76.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
76.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q1 2:24
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
73.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2327% → 26%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+32
73.5%
Keon Howard run for 32 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
72.5%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
72.7%
Keon Howard run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 19 Keon Howard fumbled, forced by Marcus Davenport,Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 34
OWN 19
+1
73.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 33
OWN 20
0
73.8%
Zac Everett punt for 56 yds, downed at the TexSA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0973% → 72%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+31
72.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 31 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
74.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
74.0%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
50
+2
73.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 48
-5
72.7%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 47
+5
72.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
72.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
70.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 13 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
69.9%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
69.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Quez Watkins for 3 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+1
69.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 1 yd to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+6
70.6%
Keon Howard run for 6 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
69.4%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
70.0%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 13
OPP 49
0
70.4%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
71.2%
Zac Everett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brady Jones at the TexSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 4:5668% → 75%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
68.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 10 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
68.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, offside defense (Draper Riley) to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 5
OWN 23
+9
68.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 9 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
68.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr.Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+20
68.6%
Tyrell Clay run for 20 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
70.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 7 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+3
70.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
70.6%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+26
70.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 26 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-11
71.6%
Brady Jones sacked by Racheem Boothe for a loss of 11 yards to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
0
71.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+21
75.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 21 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1325% → 24%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
75.3%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+3
75.3%
Keon Howard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
75.0%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
76.0%
Zac Everett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brady Jones at the TexSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11FG
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:0274% → 79%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+42
73.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 42 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
76.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
76.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
75.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
79.3%
Jared Sackett 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
80.0%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13MISSED FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:2424% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
76.0%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 2 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+18
76.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 18 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
75.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 25 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
73.4%
Keon Howard sacked by Eric Banks and La'Kel Bass for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+1
74.9%
Keon Howard run for 1 yd to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+22
75.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 22 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
72.1%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+2
72.1%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 2 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 15
0
73.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete, broken up by Baylen BakerSimilar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
74.0%
Parker Shaunfield 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14INT
11 plays · 64 yds · 0:0078% → 79%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
77.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 16Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+15
77.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 15 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
78.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 9 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+9
79.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 9 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
79.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
79.8%
Tyrell Clay run for 5 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+26
78.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Shaq Williams for 26 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+61
80.2%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted Curtis Mikell return for 61 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
79.3%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
79.9%
Greg Campbell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
79.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr., broken up by Trae CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:4429% → 48%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
71.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Quez Watkins for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+5
72.4%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+16
71.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Quez Watkins for 16 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
52.0%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 20 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0060% → 56%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.5%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 24 Dalton Sturm fumbled, recovered by TexSA Dalton SturmSimilar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
59.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr.Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-2
57.1%
Dalton Sturm sacked by LaDarius Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 22Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
56.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 26 yds, downed at the TexSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
1 play · 48 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
28.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Quez Watkins for 48 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:0534% → 34%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
34.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 18 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
36.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
36.6%
Tyrell Clay run for no gain to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+2
34.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 2 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
33.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
1 play · 89 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+89
12.5%
Ito Smith run for 89 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3218% → 31%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
17.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 13 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
19.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 8 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
20.3%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+5
19.9%
Tyrell Clay run for 5 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
20.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Dannon Cavil for 15 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
21.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Dannon CavilSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
21.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 6 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+28
30.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 28 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
21.3%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-3
21.2%
Keon Howard run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 32 Keon Howard fumbled, forced by Eric Banks, recovered by TexSA Baylen BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2731% → 41%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
31.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
31.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Shaq WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
-1
29.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+44
41.1%
Jared Sackett 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 5:3769% → 96%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
30.8%
Keon Howard run for 13 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
29.4%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+13
28.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to Quez Watkins for 13 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
27.0%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
26.8%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+10
25.9%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
25.9%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the TexSA 13Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+2
25.9%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
25.9%
Keon Howard run for no gain to the TexSA 11Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
10.5%
Keon Howard run for 5 yds to the TexSA 6Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-1
9.7%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 7Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
4.1%
Parker Shaunfield 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:088% → 41%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
8.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 9 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
9.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+10
10.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 10 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
10.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 10 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
40.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 24 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
10.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 15
50
-5
11.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:48
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 24 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+29.9
TD · Q3 1:05
Keon Howard pass complete to Quez Watkins for 48 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-27.4
TD · Q4 13:20
Ito Smith run for 89 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-21.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com