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MRSH

Marshall 38 at Middle Tennessee 10

MTSU
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2017 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:00 · Kaare Vedvik punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Home team on offense−52.7Score differential−38.6Garbage-time factor−19.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.8Pregame prior−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:55: Tyler King run for 15 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:24: John Urzua pass intercepted by Artis Johnson ,return for 17 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK) — MRSH win probability +7.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:48: Keion Davis 9 Yd Run (Kaare Vedvik Kick) — MRSH win probability +9.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:03: John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 9 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:19: Keion Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK) — MRSH win probability +14.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 7:25MTSU 4th & 12 at MRSH 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:16MRSH 4th & 5 at MTSU 36, up 4
    Close callPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    52.1%−0.4
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:39MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 42, down 4
    Close callPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:10MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 29, up 4
    Close callPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:17MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 16, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:20MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 42, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:04MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:17MRSH 4th & 8 at MTSU 8, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:06MTSU 4th & 10 at MRSH 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:45MRSH 4th & 1 at MTSU 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−2.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−2.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:10MTSU 4th & 8 at MRSH 12, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:48MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 26, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:42MTSU 4th & 24 at MTSU 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−2.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:19MTSU 4th & 5 at MRSH 48, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:00MRSH 4th & 4 at MTSU 46, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:42MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 14, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MRSH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:55MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:24MRSH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:48MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:03MTSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:19MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:47MRSH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0552% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
48.3%
Tyler King run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 23Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
48.4%
Tyler King run for 1 yd to the Marsh 24Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
48.6%
Litton, Chase pass incomplete to Brady, Tyre, PENALTY MIDDLETENN holding (Ward, Charvarius) 10 yards to the MARSHALL34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL.Similar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
48.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 4 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+37
48.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 37 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
48.4%
Tyler King run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-1
48.4%
Tyler King run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+5
48.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 5 yds to the MTnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
47.0%
Tyler King run for 15 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:5648% → 48%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
47.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 2 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+10
47.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 10 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
47.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Shane Tucker for 19 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
47.9%
Brad Anderson run for 22 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
48.2%
Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+4
48.0%
Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 2
OPP 23
-10
47.8%
John Urzua sacked by Channing Hames for a loss of 10 yards to the Marsh 33Similar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+50
48.1%
Canon Rooker 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:5852% → 52%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
48.3%
Tyler King run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 23Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+22
48.4%
Tyler King run for 22 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
47.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+14
47.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 14 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
47.5%
Tyler King run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+5
47.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 5 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+2
47.4%
Tyler King run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-4
47.9%
MARSHALL Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
48.1%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2148% → 49%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
48.1%
Tavares Thomas run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
48.9%
Tavares Thomas run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
48.3%
Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
49.1%
Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+2
49.0%
Richie James run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
48.5%
Matt Bonadies punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5052% → 51%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
48.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 5 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
47.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+3
48.5%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
49.0%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 53 yds, downed at the MTnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:2548% → 40%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
48.0%
Brad Anderson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
47.9%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+17
40.4%
John Urzua pass intercepted by Artis Johnson ,return for 17 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
41.1%
John Urzua pass complete to CJ Windham for 11 yds CJ Windham fumbled, forced by Omari Cobb, recovered by Marsh Chase Hancock , return for 18 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 1:1261% → 71%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
39.1%
Tyler King run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+6
38.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 6 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
28.6%
Keion Davis 9 Yd Run (Kaare Vedvik Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2132% → 32%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
32.3%
John Urzua pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
32.0%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
31.8%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
31.7%
Matt Bonadies punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5072% → 72%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
27.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
27.8%
Tyler King run for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 33Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+9
28.6%
Tyler King run for 9 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
27.9%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:1031% → 40%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
30.9%
Richie James run for no gain to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
30.7%
Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+13
30.2%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 13 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
30.9%
Brad Anderson run for no gain to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
30.0%
John Urzua sacked by Ryan Bee and Jaquan Yulee for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+5
29.5%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+33
30.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 33 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-15
32.4%
West, Terelle rush for 3 yards to the MARSHALL24, PENALTY MIDDLETENN illegal block (Hamilton, Lucas) 15 yards to the MARSHALL42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 25
OPP 42
+33
30.3%
John Urzua pass complete to Tavonn Salter for 33 yds to the Marsh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
39.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 9 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:2064% → 80%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
36.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 8 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+4
35.5%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
35.1%
Chase Litton run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 9
50
-5
34.9%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (Jordan Dowrey) to the Marsh 45Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 14
OWN 45
0
35.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 14
OPP 26
+42
35.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 29 yds to the MIDDLETENN 26 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jordan Ferguson) to the MTnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
33.5%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+7
33.3%
Keion Davis run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (1 Yards) to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.7%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4325% → 24%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
24.7%
John Urzua sacked by Ty Tyler for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
24.5%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+7
23.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Patrick Smith for 7 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
23.5%
Matt Bonadies punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 1:3381% → 85%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
19.3%
Tyler King run for 21 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
18.3%
Tyler King run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
17.2%
Tyler King run for no gain to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+12
19.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 12 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
17.5%
Tyler King run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+10
17.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 10 yds to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
17.1%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
17.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
16.3%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
14.8%
Kaare Vedvik 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.1%
Brad Anderson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 0:5018% → 19%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.0%
John Urzua pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
17.8%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 14:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+49
17.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 49 yds to the Marsh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
20.2%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
19.9%
John Urzua pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
19.2%
John Urzua pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
18.9%
Canon Rooker 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:1086% → 89%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
14.2%
Tyler King run for 5 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+28
13.9%
Tyler King run for 28 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
11.8%
Tyler King run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
11.3%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
10.7%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
11.2%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the MTnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18DOWNS
14 plays · 41 yds · 4:4515% → 9%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
15.3%
Brad Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 12
OWN 31
-6
14.1%
John Urzua sacked by Channing Hames for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 18
OWN 25
+18
13.2%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 18 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
12.7%
Tavares Thomas run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+1
12.5%
Tavares Thomas run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+5
12.2%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tyshun Render) to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
12.1%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 3 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
11.9%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
12.1%
Urzua, John pass incomplete to James, Richie, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (Johnson, Nazeeh) 0 yards to the MARSHALL29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN.Similar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
12.8%
Urzua, John pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MARSHALL32 (Render, Tyshun), PENALTY MARSHALL face mask (Hames, Channing) 15 yards to the MARSHALL14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN.Similar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
12.8%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 2 yds to the Marsh 12Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
9.9%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
9.4%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 8
OPP 12
0
8.9%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1595% → 97%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
5.3%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+10
5.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 10 yds to the Marsh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
5.0%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
4.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-1
3.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Keion Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 26Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
3.5%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 58 yds, downed at the MTnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:506% → 5%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
6.4%
Brad Anderson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
6.4%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+11
6.2%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 11 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
6.1%
Brad Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 13
OWN 29
-16
5.9%
John Urzua sacked by Marquis Couch for a loss of 16 yards to the MTnSt 13 John Urzua fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Jordan Ferguson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 29
OWN 13
+5
5.3%
Brad Anderson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 24
OWN 18
+20
5.0%
Matt Bonadies punt for 41 yds, downed at the MIDDLETENN 41 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (TEAM) to the MTnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:1698% → 100%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
2.2%
Tyler King run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
2.2%
Tyler King run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+8
2.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 8 yds to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-6
2.0%
Tyler King run for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 16
OPP 18
+17
1.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 17 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.5%
Tyler King run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:281% → 0%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
0.6%
Tavares Thomas run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Larry Aaron) to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
0.6%
Tavares Thomas run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
0.6%
Tavares Thomas run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
0.6%
Kyle Banks pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
0.4%
Tavares Thomas run for 5 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
0.4%
Kyle Banks pass incomplete to Shane TuckerSimilar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
0.4%
Kyle Banks pass incomplete to Tavonn SalterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
0.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 49Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+1
0.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 8
50
+4
0.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
0.3%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
0.2%
Kyle Banks sacked by Blake Keller for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 7 Kyle Banks fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Kyle Banks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 16
OWN 7
+2
0.2%
Terelle West run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 14
OWN 9
+5
0.2%
Terelle West run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
0.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 50 yds, downed at the Marsh 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 22 yds · 5:33100% → 100%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
0.2%
Anthony Anderson run for 7 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+1
0.2%
Anthony Anderson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 44Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
0.1%
Anthony Anderson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
0.1%
Anthony Anderson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+2
0.1%
Anthony Anderson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+7
0.1%
Anthony Anderson run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:19
Keion Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q2 11:48
Keion Davis 9 Yd Run (Kaare Vedvik Kick)
-9.9
TD · Q2 7:03
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 9 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com