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Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:18 · Alan Luna punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:20: Zack Greenlee pass complete to Josh Weeks for 2 yds for a TD, (Jason Filley KICK) — UTEP win probability +3.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:31: Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the UTEP 28 — UAB win probability +2.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:18: A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 30 yds for a TD, (S. Brown Run For Two-point Conversion) — UAB win probability +4.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:51: A.J. Erdely run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +5.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:23: A.J. Erdely pass complete to Logan Scott for 11 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UTEP made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 15:00UTEP 4th & 16 at UTEP 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q1 7:57UAB 4th & 10 at UTEP 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snapGo for it88.9%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call89.0%70% to makePunt88.6%−0.4average punt
- Q1 7:57UTEP 4th & 1 at UAB 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.8%70% to convertField goal10.5%−0.327% to makePunt10.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:48UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 26, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snapGo for it16.0%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%average punt
- Q2 8:44UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 40, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snapGo for it81.5%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%average punt
- Q2 5:18UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it12.6%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.7%average punt
- Q2 3:43UAB 4th & 22 at UTEP 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snapGo for it85.5%−1.08% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.5%average punt
- Q3 15:00UAB 4th & 12 at UAB 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snapGo for it84.8%−1.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.9%average punt
- Q3 12:20UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it13.6%−0.931% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.5%average punt
- Q3 7:43UTEP 4th & 16 at UTEP 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.0%−1.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q3 4:23UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 40, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q4 15:00UAB 4th & 12 at UAB 48, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q4 14:16UTEP 4th & 7 at UAB 36, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%37% to convertField goal1.3%−0.142% to makePunt1.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 9:34UAB 4th & 9 at UAB 37, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q4 7:18UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 42, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 3:20UTEP Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.7%97% to makeGo for two13.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:18UAB Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick85.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call85.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:51UAB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two92.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:23UAB Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTEPDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
91.7%
GREENLEE, Zack rush for 6 yards to the UTEP42, out-of-bounds (JOHNSTON III, T), PENALTY UTEP false start 5 yards to the UTEP31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-8
91.7%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Fitzgerald Mofor for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+7
91.7%
Alan Luna punt for 44 yds , Andre Wilson returns for 7 yds to the UAB 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2FG8 plays · 43 yds · 3:2191% → 90%
Q1 11:18
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+11
90.9%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 11 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:3710% → 14%
Q1 7:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
89.9%
Zack Greenlee run for no gain to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, personal foul (Stacy Keely) to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
89.8%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Terry Juniel for 5 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+41
89.9%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Josh Weeks for 41 yds to the UAB 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Josh Weeks for 2 yds for a TD, (Jason Filley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4FG17 plays · 58 yds · 7:1987% → 86%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
86.4%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 7 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
86.7%
ERDELY, A.J. rush for 6 yards to the UTEP17, out-of-bounds (JONES, Alvin), PENALTY UAB holding (POWERS, J.) 10 yards to the UTEP33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+8
86.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 8 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+12
86.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to James Noble III for 12 yds to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
83.8%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Tevin Crews for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+2
84.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Eddie Sinegal for 2 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+13
84.6%
Alan Luna punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 40 , Andre Wilson returns for 13 yds to the UAB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-2
84.4%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Donnie Lee for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 40Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
83.4%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre Wilson, broken up by Kalon BeverlySimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
82.8%
Joel Dixon punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Terry Juniel at the UTEP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7INT2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
UABDrive 8TD3 plays · 30 yds · 1:1384% → 89%
Q2 5:18
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+30
88.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 30 yds for a TD, (S. Brown Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 5:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
87.9%
Alan Luna punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
87.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 15 yds to the UAB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 10
OPP 36
-12
88.1%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Alvin Jones for a loss of 12 yards to the UTEP 48Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 22
OPP 48
+40
86.9%
Joel Dixon punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Terry Juniel at the UTEP 13 UTEP Penalty, illegal participation (5 Yards) to the UTEP 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11INT9 plays · 48 yds · 1:0913% → 15%
Q2 0:25
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+30
86.7%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Tyler Batson for 30 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 15
OPP 44
0
84.8%
Zack Greenlee pass intercepted, touchback. Darious Williams return for no gain UTEP Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 12:20
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-2
85.3%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Stacy Keely for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 36 Zack Greenlee fumbled, recovered by UTEP Derron Gatewood , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+11
86.5%
Alan Luna punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 21 , Andre Wilson returns for 11 yds to the UAB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14TD11 plays · 79 yds · 2:5586% → 93%
UTEPDrive 15PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 7:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
92.1%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Erik Brown for 2 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-10
92.3%
LUNA, Alan punt 56 yards to the UAB15, WILSON, A. return to the UAB13 (PARSEE, Dylan), PENALTY UTEP holding 10 yards to the UTEP19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+36
92.4%
Alan Luna punt for 40 yds , Andre Wilson returns for 36 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16TD4 plays · 23 yds · 1:2194% → 98%
UTEPDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 4:23
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Alan Luna punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 1:5299% → 99%
Q3 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+15
98.6%
ERDELY, A.J. pass incomplete to UBOSI, X., PENALTY UTEP pass interference (NEEDHAM, Nik) 15 yards to the UAB30, 1ST DOWN UAB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
98.6%
ERDELY, A.J. pass incomplete to UBOSI, X., PENALTY UTEP offside (BUCKINGHAM,Sani) 5 yards to the UAB35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+15
98.6%
UTEP Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
50
-9
98.7%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Alvin Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the UAB 41Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 19
OWN 41
+7
98.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Demetrius Davis for 7 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
98.6%
Joel Dixon punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Terry Juniel at the UTEP 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19DOWNS10 plays · 57 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:16
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+15
98.8%
GREENLEE, Zack pass incomplete to BATSON, Tyler, PENALTY UAB pass interference (WILLIAMS, D.A.) 15 yards to the UTEP24, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
98.4%
DOVE, Kevin rush for 2 yards to the UTEP39 (MOFOR, F.), PENALTY UTEP holding off-setting, PENALTY UAB face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
98.7%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Tyler Batson for 24 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
98.7%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 1 yd to the UAB 38Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-5
98.7%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Zachary Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 9:34
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
99.0%
Joel Dixon punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Terry Juniel at the UTEP 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22END OF GAME11 plays · 42 yds · 4:0799% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:51
A.J. Erdely run for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q2 5:18
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 30 yds for a TD, (S. Brown Run For Two-point Conversion)
+4.6
TD · Q3 4:23
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Logan Scott for 11 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)
+4