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USM

Southern Miss 28 at Marshall 27

MRSH
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Kaare Vedvik punt for 56 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for no gain to the SoMis 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.8Pregame prior+1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:13: Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 3 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK) — MRSH win probability +12.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:54: Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +16.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:44: Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +26.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:15: Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 9 yds for a TD, (Jackson White intercepted ) — MRSH win probability +27.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 1:15: Timeout SOUTHERN MISS, clock 01:15 — USM win probability +12.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 8USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 13 at USM 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:44USM 4th & 4 at MRSH 19, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:18MRSH 4th & 13 at USM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:09MRSH 4th & 5 at USM 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    50.3%−0.5
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:52USM 4th & 7 at USM 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:13USM 4th & 2 at USM 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:35MRSH 4th & 3 at USM 41, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    58.1%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−2.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:04USM 4th & 4 at USM 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:31USM 4th & 1 at USM 23, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:19MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:52MRSH 4th & 8 at USM 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.6%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:52USM 4th & 7 at USM 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:44MRSH 4th & 14 at MRSH 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−4.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:58USM 4th & 7 at USM 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−1.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:55MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:34USM 4th & 11 at USM 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 14:09USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:15MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:42USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:13MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:31MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:54USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:44USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
53.3%
Kwadra Griggs run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
53.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
53.3%
Zac Everett punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
53.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
53.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 6 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+4
53.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
50
+5
53.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Keion Davis for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
53.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 6 yds Hyleck Foster fumbled, forced by Tarvarius Moore, recovered by SoMis Curtis MikellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:3447% → 47%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
53.4%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
53.3%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+2
53.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 2 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
53.3%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Marsh 46Similar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 5
OPP 46
0
53.2%
Allenzae Staggers run for no gain to the Marsh 46Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
53.3%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
53.3%
GRIGGS, Kwadra pass incomplete to STAGGERS, A., PENALTY MAR pass interference (REAVIS, C.J.) 15 yards to the MAR25, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
53.2%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Marsh 24Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+4
53.2%
Kwadra Griggs run for 4 yds to the Marsh 20Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+1
53.3%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Marsh 19Similar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
53.5%
Parker Shaunfield 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:2654% → 55%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
54.0%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 16Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+15
53.9%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to OBIALO, Obi, PENALTY USM pass interference (MIKELL, Curtis) 15 yards to the MAR31, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
54.1%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+16
54.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 16 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
54.8%
Tyler King run for no gain to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
54.7%
Keion Davis run for 11 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
54.8%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-1
54.8%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 11
OPP 38
-2
55.3%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
54.5%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:2246% → 53%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Jaylon McClain-SappSimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
54.6%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+19
54.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 19 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
53.4%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
53.4%
GRIGGS, Kwadra pass incomplete to ROBERTSON, K., PENALTY MAR pass interference (MCCLAIN-SAPP, J) 6 yards to the MAR45, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
53.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 1 yd to the Marsh 44Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+9
53.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Quez Watkins for 9 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
52.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 2 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+2
52.9%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+16
52.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 16 yds to the Marsh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
52.2%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the Marsh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
46.7%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds for a TD MARSHALL Penalty, ( Yards) declined, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Hyleck Foster, broken up by Tarvarius MooreSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.8%
Tyler King run for 1 yd to the Marsh 26Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+33
48.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 33 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
50.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyler KingSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
50.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 5 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
50.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Obi Obialo, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
49.8%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 21 yds, downed at the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
48.1%
Kwadra Griggs run for 8 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
47.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+2
47.9%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.0%
Kwadra Griggs run for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
48.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
48.8%
Zac Everett punt for 49 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for no gain to the Marsh 28 MARSHALL Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Marsh 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 4:3747% → 61%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
47.1%
Tyler King run for 2 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+2
47.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 2 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+10
46.5%
LITTON, Chase pass complete to OBIALO, Obi for 10 yards to the MAR27 (MIKELL, Curtis), PENALTY USM holding (MIKELL, Curtis) 10 yards to the MAR27, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
47.6%
Tyler King run for 14 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
48.6%
Chase Litton run for 1 yd to the Marsh 42Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+9
48.0%
Keion Davis run for 9 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
49.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 9 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+3
49.7%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
49.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Hyleck Foster, broken up by Tarvarius MooreSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
49.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 11 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
60.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 26 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3347% → 59%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Quez Watkins for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+27
53.0%
Ito Smith run for 27 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
50.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+22
50.8%
Kwadra Griggs run for 7 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Davon Durant) to the Marsh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
50.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 6 yds to the Marsh 16Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+16
40.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 16 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:2943% → 61%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
43.1%
PENALTY USM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY MAR unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+44
47.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 44 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
48.7%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the SoMis 3Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 3 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
53.6%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+6
53.7%
Kwadra Griggs run for 6 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
54.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
55.1%
Zac Everett punt for 39 yds, downed at the Marsh 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:2059% → 57%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
59.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 11 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
60.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Keion Davis for no gain to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
59.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Keion Davis for 7 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
58.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan Yurachek, broken up by Kelsey DouglasSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
57.3%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 34 yds, downed at the SoMis 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
52.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0057% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
56.5%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the Marsh 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
56.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Obi ObialoSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
55.0%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
54.1%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 56 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for no gain to the SoMis 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
52.7%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 4
OWN 19
0
52.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Julian AllenSimilar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
53.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Chase HancockSimilar
Q3 14:04
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
54.9%
Zac Everett punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
59.1%
Chase Litton pass intercepted Tarvarius Moore return for no gain to the SoMis 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0047% → 48%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
52.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 11 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
52.4%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26 Ito Smith fumbled, forced by Juwon Young, recovered by Marsh Brandon DraytonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 1:0261% → 73%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
60.5%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+12
60.5%
DAVIS, Keion rush for loss of 3 yards to the USM26 (BOOTHE, R.), PENALTY USM personal foul (CRAYTON, Rod) 12 yards to the USM11, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
72.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 11 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
68.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
68.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+9
70.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 9 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
70.0%
Zac Everett punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
70.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Obi ObialoSimilar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
70.1%
Tyler King run for 14 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
72.3%
Tyler King run for no gain to the Marsh 45Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
71.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 4 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
71.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Obi ObialoSimilar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
69.5%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 44 yds, downed at the SoMis 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
15 plays · 93 yds · 6:2030% → 52%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
70.3%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+9
70.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 9 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
69.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 6 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+5
68.8%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
68.9%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
69.3%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+5
67.3%
Kwadra Griggs run for 5 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
67.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
67.9%
Kwadra Griggs run for 10 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
66.3%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+35
65.8%
Ito Smith run for 35 yds to the Marsh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+1
62.8%
SMITH, Ito rush for 1 yard to the MAR2 (BEE, Ryan;JOHNSON, Artis), PENALTY MAR 12 men on the field 1 yards to the MAR2, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
64.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Rodney AllenSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
64.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 3Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22MISSED FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:0256% → 57%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
56.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 22Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+42
55.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 42 yds to the MARSHALL 36 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
61.3%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
62.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Obi ObialoSimilar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
60.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+51
57.4%
Kaare Vedvik 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Xavier Thigpen TEAM return for no gain to the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0049% → 45%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
51.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
52.2%
Kwadra Griggs run for 3 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
52.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
54.8%
Zac Everett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0057% → 62%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
56.5%
Tyler King run for 1 yd to the Marsh 23Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+7
56.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 7 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+8
56.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyler King for 8 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
58.7%
Tyler King run for 18 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
61.8%
Tyler King run for no gain to the SoMis 46 Tyler King fumbled, forced by Xavier Thigpen, recovered by SoMis Allen FailsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:4352% → 81%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
47.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by C.J. ReavisSimilar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+48
48.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 48 yds to the Marsh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
44.8%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Marsh 5Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
44.8%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Marsh 4Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 0
OPP 4
-5
45.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Drake Dorbeck) to the Marsh 9Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
18.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0028% → 24%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
27.6%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-2
28.0%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 30Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-6
25.7%
Chase Litton sacked by Paxton Schrimsher for a loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 24Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
24.1%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 57 yds, downed at the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
21.1%
Kwadra Griggs run for 13 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
20.6%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-1
19.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
21.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
22.4%
Zac Everett punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
22.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 11 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
23.4%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-2
25.1%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 36Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
21.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+5
20.2%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 47 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 5 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 1:3886% → 89%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
14.2%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
13.9%
Kwadra Griggs run for 4 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+1
14.2%
Kwadra Griggs run for 1 yd to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
9.5%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+2
10.1%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
10.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by C.J. ReavisSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
11.5%
Zac Everett punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 30TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 1:0718% → 48%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
17.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Obi ObialoSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
16.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 5 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+8
18.0%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Willie (MIKELL, Curtis), PENALTY USM pass interference (MIKELL, Curtis) 8 yards to the USM45, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+26
20.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 26 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
24.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Keion DavisSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
23.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie Johnson, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+10
20.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Curtis Mikell) to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
48.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 9 yds for a TD, (Jackson White intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:0079% → 76%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
20.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 14
50
-4
23.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:15
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 9 yds for a TD, (Jackson White intercepted )
+27.5
TD · Q4 9:44
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-26.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-23.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com