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UTSA

UTSA 6 at Louisiana Tech 20

LT
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of GameTD+7.8LT 98.1%Boston Scott run for 35 yds for a TD,(Jonathan Barnes KICK)AWAY 6 - HOME 20 · Q4 2:23
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:23 · Boston Scott run for 35 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Home team on offense+29.1Pregame prior−0.4Garbage-time factor+14.4Score differential+12.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Blowout margin−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:41: J'Mar Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +5.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:45: Jonathan Barnes 53 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +8.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 15:00: Tyrell Clay run for no gain to the LaTch 3 — LT win probability +8.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:01: Boston Scott run for 6 yds to the LaTch 26 — LT win probability +10.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:23: Boston Scott run for 35 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +7.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:04UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:59LT 4th & 10 at LT 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:52UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00LT 4th & 3 at LT 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:31UTSA 4th & 8 at LT 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:36LT 4th & 8 at UTSA 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−6.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:15UTSA 4th & 2 at LT 2, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−12.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:45LT 4th & 16 at UTSA 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.9%
    42% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00UTSA 4th & 1 at LT 3, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−4.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−14.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:20UTSA 4th & 3 at LT 3, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%−2.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−10.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:20LT 4th & 5 at UTSA 42, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%−2.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:43UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 33, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 6:41LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 2:23LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
39.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 6 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+10
39.3%
Tyrell Clay run for 10 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
39.3%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Jaylon Ferguson and Keonatye Garner for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 27
0
39.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete, broken up by Elliot BlankenshipSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+5
39.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 5 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
39.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:3840% → 46%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
40.2%
J'Mar Smith run for 6 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
40.3%
Boston Scott run for 6 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
40.3%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete to BONNETTE, R., PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Jupe) 15 yards to the LATECH47, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
40.5%
Adrian Hardy run for 1 yd to the LaTch 48Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+14
40.4%
Boston Scott run for 14 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
40.6%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
40.6%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+33
40.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 33 yds to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
40.6%
Boston Scott run for 2 yds to the TexSA 8Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
40.6%
J'Mar Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 9Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
40.5%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete to MCKNIGHT, K., PENALTY UTSA holding (Davis,D) 5 yards to the UTSA4, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
40.6%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.2%
J'Mar Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3755% → 53%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
45.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 11 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
44.9%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 30Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 14
OWN 30
-5
45.2%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 19
OWN 25
+18
45.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 18 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
46.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 38 yds, downed at the LaTch 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
47.7%
Boston Scott run for 11 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
47.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
47.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Boston ScottSimilar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 10
OWN 0
0
47.3%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete to HARDY, Adrian, PENALTY LATECH personal foul off-setting, PENALTY UTSA pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
47.3%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+7
46.9%
Davan Dyer punt for 36 yds , Brady Jones returns for 7 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
47.2%
Blaze Moorhead run for 3 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
46.8%
Brett Winnegan run for no gain to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
47.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q1 2:52
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
48.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 33 yds, downed at the LaTch 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2650% → 50%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
49.5%
J'Mar Smith run for no gain to the LaTch 25 J'Mar Smith fumbled, recovered by LaTch J'Mar SmithSimilar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+8
49.4%
Boston Scott run for 8 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
49.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Rhashid BonnetteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
50.7%
J'Mar Smith run for 5 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+2
51.1%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
50.3%
Davan Dyer punt for 34 yds , Brady Jones returns for no gain to the TexSA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7MISSED FG
18 plays · 66 yds · 8:4949% → 42%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
51.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 14 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
50.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 1 yd to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+6
50.7%
Tyrell Clay run for 6 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+6
50.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
49.6%
Brett Winnegan run for 4 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+17
49.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 17 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
48.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-2
48.8%
Brett Winnegan run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 27Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+11
49.9%
Dalton Sturm run for 11 yds to the LaTch 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
48.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the LaTch 14Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
54.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 4 yds to the LaTch 10Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+4
55.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the LaTch 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
54.4%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
55.2%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
56.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete, broken up by Russell FarrisSimilar
Q2 4:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
58.4%
Jared Sackett 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 3:5560% → 68%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
60.0%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 3 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
59.9%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 3 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+9
59.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 9 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
60.3%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
60.3%
Boston Scott run for 16 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
62.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
61.6%
Boston Scott run for 9 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+15
61.6%
Jarred Craft run for 15 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
62.7%
J'Mar Smith run for 7 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+7
62.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jarred Craft for 7 yds to the TexSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
62.7%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
65.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Jarred CraftSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
64.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian Hardy, broken up by Devron DavisSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
67.5%
Jonathan Barnes 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
67.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-5
67.0%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Immanuel Turner for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.0%
Boston Scott run for no gain to the LaTch 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+35
65.7%
J'Mar Smith pass intercepted Nate Gaines return for 35 yds to the LaTch 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11FG
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:0039% → 37%
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
60.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the LaTch 9Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+8
60.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 8 yds to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
60.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 2Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
60.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the LaTch 2Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
68.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the LaTch 2Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
62.8%
Jared Sackett 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12FG
13 plays · 24 yds · 4:3068% → 75%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
68.0%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 35Similar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+2
65.8%
Boston Scott run for 2 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+7
66.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 7 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+8
66.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 8 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
68.6%
Boston Scott run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 49Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
67.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+21
65.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 21 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
69.7%
SCOTT, Boston rush for 12 yards to the UTSA18 (Davenport), PENALTY LATECH holding (OUTLAW, Joshua) 10 yards to the UTSA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+4
67.8%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 4 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 16
OPP 36
0
67.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 16
OPP 36
0
66.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Rhashid BonnetteSimilar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 16
OPP 36
+53
74.8%
Jonathan Barnes 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13FG
21 plays · 73 yds · 9:2524% → 24%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
75.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jordan Baldwin) to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
74.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-4
73.8%
Clay,T rush for 6 yards to the LATECH48 (FARRIS, Russell), PENALTY UTSA H0 (Rothrock) 4 yards to the UTSA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+11
74.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Blaze Moorhead for 11 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
73.0%
Tyrell Clay run for 6 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+5
72.7%
Tyrell Clay run for 5 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
73.0%
Tyrell Clay run for 9 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
71.5%
Tyrell Clay run for no gain to the LaTch 27Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+4
72.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
71.5%
Kerry Thomas Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
71.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 5 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+3
72.8%
Tyrell Clay run for 3 yds to the LaTch 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
71.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 9 yds to the LaTch 3Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 1
OPP 3
0
71.5%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the LaTch 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
79.9%
Tyrell Clay run for no gain to the LaTch 3Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
81.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
78.7%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
78.6%
Tyrell Clay run for no gain to the LaTch 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
79.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
76.5%
Jared Sackett 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0086% → 84%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
85.6%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Carl Austin III for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 48Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+6
85.3%
Kam McKnight run for 6 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
84.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Boston ScottSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
83.8%
Davan Dyer punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Brady Jones at the TexSA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
80.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+7
80.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
80.3%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
79.3%
Tyrell Clay run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
79.6%
Brett Winnegan run for no gain to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
80.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 54 yds , Teddy Veal returns for no gain to the LaTch 11 Teddy Veal fumbled, recovered by TexSA Carl Austin IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
78.3%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted, touchback. Amik Robertson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:3889% → 98%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
88.5%
Boston Scott run for 6 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
88.7%
Boston Scott run for 6 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
88.7%
Boston Scott run for 1 yd to the LaTch 33Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
88.7%
Boston Scott run for 5 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+16
89.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 16 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
90.1%
Boston Scott run for 6 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+5
90.3%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 5 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
98.1%
Boston Scott run for 35 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18INT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
97.2%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Josh Dunlop) to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+9
97.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 9 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
97.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+7
97.2%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted Darryl Lewis return for 7 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19END OF GAME
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
98.4%
Boston Scott run for 2 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
98.4%
Boston Scott run for 1 yd to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+8
98.4%
Boston Scott run for 8 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:01
Boston Scott run for 6 yds to the LaTch 26
+10.2
FG · Q3 6:45
Jonathan Barnes 53 yd FG GOOD
+8.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 15:00
Tyrell Clay run for no gain to the LaTch 3
+8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com