2017 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2017 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreWKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:52 · Ryan Nuss 35 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:24: Shawndarrius Phillips run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +9.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:49: Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Nuss KICK) — WKU win probability +15.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:21: Alex McGough pass complete to Darrius Scott for 42 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +14.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:21: Shawndarrius Phillips run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +15.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q3 1:52: Jake Collins run for a loss of 12 yards Jake Collins fumbled, recovered by FlaIn D'Vonte Price , return for 38 yds WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal batting ( Yards) declined, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +15.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 11:54WKU 4th & 4 at FIU 16, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snapGo for it55.7%46% to convertField goalTheir call55.7%−<0.181% to makePunt55.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 5:29FIU 4th & 3 at WKU 5, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snapGo for it46.5%45% to convertField goalTheir call46.3%−0.292% to makePunt44.6%−2.0average punt
- Q1 5:29WKU 4th & 1 at FIU 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.1%71% to convertField goal52.5%−0.662% to makePunt50.9%−2.2average punt
- Q1 0:57WKU 4th & 6 at FIU 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.7% before the snapGo for it51.4%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call51.5%74% to makePunt48.8%−2.7average punt
- Q2 15:00FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snapGo for it46.5%−0.533% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.0%average punt
- Q2 7:24WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snapGo for it50.0%−1.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.6%average punt
- Q2 1:07FIU 4th & 3 at WKU 3, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snapGo for it51.9%44% to convertField goalTheir call51.0%−0.893% to makePunt45.1%−6.7average punt
- Q2 1:07WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snapGo for it44.4%−0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.5%average punt
- Q3 15:00FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 30, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snapGo for it53.2%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.8%average punt
- Q3 1:52WKU 4th & 12 at midfield, down 10Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 20.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.8%−1.623% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt21.4%average punt
- Q4 12:52WKU 4th & 15 at FIU 18, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snapGo for it4.1%−2.115% to convertField goalTheir call6.1%79% to makePunt0.6%−5.5average punt
- Q4 11:04FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 29, up 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it96.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.7%−1.3average punt
- Q4 10:57WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 38, down 17Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.9%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.6%average punt
- Q4 7:01FIU 4th & 4 at WKU 24, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.6%47% to convertField goal96.4%−0.268% to makePunt94.4%−2.1average punt
- Q4 7:01WKU 4th & 11 at FIU 48, down 24Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.0%average punt
- Q4 1:21FIU 4th & 2 at WKU 41, up 24Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%57% to convertField goal99.4%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call99.4%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 12:35WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.5%97% to makeGo for two58.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:24FIU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.5%97% to makeGo for two46.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:49WKU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.9%97% to makeGo for two57.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 7:21FIU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.6%97% to makeGo for two58.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 4:21FIU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.6%97% to makeGo for two79.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:01FIU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWKUDrive 1MISSED FG10 plays · 49 yds · 3:0654% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
45.8%
Mike White pass complete to Kylen Towner for 8 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+9
45.8%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 9 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+24
45.8%
Mike White pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 24 yds to the FlaIn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+1
45.8%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 1 yd to the FlaIn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2FG13 plays · 75 yds · 6:2547% → 49%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
46.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 4 yds to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+17
46.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Austin Maloney for 17 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+10
46.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Austin Maloney for 10 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+23
47.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Pharoah McKever for 23 yds to the WKent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
46.9%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Pharoah McKever, broken up by Derik OverstreetSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3FG14 plays · 60 yds · 4:3251% → 53%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+34
49.1%
Mike White pass complete to Deon Yelder for 34 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
47.9%
Mike White pass complete to D'Andre Ferby for 4 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-5
48.3%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Brandon Ray) to the WKent 49Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+15
49.0%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 15 yds to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
48.0%
Mike White pass complete to Marquez Trigg for 9 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5749% → 48%
WKUDrive 5TD5 plays · 79 yds · 2:1452% → 61%
FIUDrive 6TD11 plays · 77 yds · 5:1142% → 54%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
41.6%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Austin Maloney, broken up by Joe BrownSimilar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+13
40.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Shermar Thornton for 13 yds to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
43.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to D'Vonte Price for no gain to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+9
42.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Shermar Thornton for 9 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+29
43.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 29 yds to the WKent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
44.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to D'Vonte Price for 9 yds to the WKent 4Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
53.9%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
FIUDrive 8FG13 plays · 51 yds · 4:1054% → 57%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
53.6%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+5
52.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 5 yds to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
54.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Pharoah McKever for 15 yds to the WKent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+4
54.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Stantley Thomas-Oliver III for 4 yds to the WKent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
54.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Napoleon Maxwell for 7 yds to the WKent 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.4%
Mike White pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 8 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
54.4%
Mike White pass incomplete to Nacarius Fant, broken up by Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
55.7%
Jake Collins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tony Gaiter IV at the FlaIn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
54.0%
Stone Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nacarius Fant at the WKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12TD10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3244% → 62%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
55.7%
Mike White pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 6 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
54.1%
Mike White pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 4 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
54.0%
Mike White pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 7 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+5
53.0%
Mike White pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 5 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
52.7%
Mike White pass complete to Deon Yelder for 9 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+7
52.3%
Mike White pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 7 yds to the FlaIn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
51.5%
Mike White pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 4 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+14
53.6%
WHITE, Mike pass intercepted by LUBIN, Emmanuel at the FIU32, LUBIN, Emmanuel return to the WKU0, clock 09:55, PENALTY FIU personal foul (SHERIFF, J.) 14 yards to the FIU14, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
38.1%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Nuss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2844% → 62%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
43.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Shermar Thornton for 15 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+10
46.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to D'Vonte Price for 10 yds D'Vonte Price fumbled, forced by Drell Greene, recovered by FlaIn for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+42
62.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Darrius Scott for 42 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14FUMBLE3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0043% → 45%
FIUDrive 15TD6 plays · 38 yds · 2:1464% → 80%
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
64.0%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 12 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
65.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 15 yds to the WKent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.2%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16FUMBLE TD8 plays · 21 yds · 2:2923% → 8%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
77.1%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 20 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
76.1%
Mike White pass complete to Deon Yelder for 15 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
74.1%
WHITE, Mike pass complete to YELDER, Deon for 9 yards to the FIU39 (MUHAMMAD, Brad), PENALTY WKU holding 10 yards to the WKU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 12
50
+38
91.6%
Jake Collins run for a loss of 12 yards Jake Collins fumbled, recovered by FlaIn D'Vonte Price , return for 38 yds WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal batting ( Yards) declined, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17MISSED FG15 plays · 57 yds · 4:009% → 6%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
91.5%
Mike White pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 10 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
91.2%
Mike White sacked by Jermaine Sheriff for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 30Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+22
91.8%
Mike White pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 22 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
90.8%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 3 yds to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+16
92.1%
Mike White pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 16 yds to the FlaIn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
91.5%
Mike White pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 7 yds to the FlaIn 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+9
91.7%
Mike White pass complete to Deon Yelder for 9 yds to the FlaIn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
91.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Cole Spencer) to the FlaIn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4895% → 96%
Q4 11:04
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
95.6%
Stone Wilson punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Nacarius Fant at the WKent 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19FUMBLE6 plays · 12 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
94.8%
Mike White pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 5 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+15
94.5%
Mike White pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 15 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 10
OWN 38
-8
95.0%
Mike White sacked by Fermin Silva for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 30 Mike White fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Bryce Canady , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20TD4 plays · 30 yds · 2:2597% → 99%
Q4 7:01
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+24
99.3%
Stone Wilson pass complete to Pharoah McKever for 24 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 24 yds · 0:001% → 1%
FIUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23END OF GAME3 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:49
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Nuss KICK)
-15.5
FUMBLE · Q3 1:52
Jake Collins run for a loss of 12 yards Jake Collins fumbled, recovered by FlaIn D'Vonte Price , return for 38 yds WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal batting ( Yards) declined, (Jose Borregales KICK)
+15.5
TD · Q3 4:21
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
+15