2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreFAU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:55 · Arthur Hart pass incomplete to Trent Bostick
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:48: Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 20 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +2.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:49: Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Benny LeMay for 28 yds for a TD, (Kyle Corbett PAT MISSED) — CLT win probability +3.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:00: Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 41 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +4.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:02: Devin Singletary run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:48: Hasaan Klugh 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — CLT win probability +4.9 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 8 of 11FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 15:00FAU 4th & 3 at CLT 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.9%52% to convertField goal92.7%−0.227% to makePunt92.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:55CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 46, tiedClose callWent for it · 7.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.9%average punt
- Q1 9:48CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snapGo for it8.4%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.5%average punt
- Q1 4:11FAU 4th & 4 at CLT 19, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snapGo for it90.3%47% to convertField goalTheir call90.2%−<0.177% to makePunt89.4%−0.8average punt
- Q1 2:08CLT 4th & 7 at FAU 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.8%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call9.8%60% to makePunt9.1%−0.7average punt
- Q2 15:00FAU 4th & 18 at CLT 43, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snapGo for it89.1%−0.313% to convertField goal89.2%−0.228% to makePuntTheir call89.4%average punt
- Q2 13:43CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 13, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q2 1:00FAU 4th & 8 at CLT 41, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.6%34% to convertField goal88.5%−0.132% to makePunt88.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:50CLT 4th & 11 at CLT 24, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it6.3%−1.025% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q3 15:00CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 25, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q3 10:02CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 23, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.822% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q3 6:27CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 49, down 25Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.1%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 1:48FAU 4th & 4 at CLT 22, up 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.9%47% to convertField goal96.7%−0.272% to makePunt93.4%−3.5average punt
- Q3 11:04CLT 4th & 3 at FAU 4, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.9%45% to convertField goal7.5%−0.493% to makePunt4.3%−3.6average punt
- Q4 11:04CLT 4th & 3 at FAU 4, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.0%45% to convertField goal3.8%−0.293% to makePunt-0.4%−4.4average punt
- Q4 10:23FAU 4th & 1 at CLT 1, up 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.4%59% to convertField goal96.3%−1.194% to makePunt93.6%−3.8average punt
- Q4 1:50CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 16, down 19Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 9:48FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.2%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:48FAU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.1%97% to makeGo for two91.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:49CLT Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call12.1%97% to makeGo for two12.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:00FAU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:02FAU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:48CLT Touchdown, down 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick3.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAUDrive 1DOWNS8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2DOWNS4 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3TD6 plays · 46 yds · 2:1494% → 94%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
5.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 2 yds to the Charl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 0:006% → 6%
FAUDrive 5FG6 plays · 37 yds · 2:0893% → 93%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
6.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 31 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6MISSED FG6 plays · 47 yds · 2:038% → 8%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
7.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 44 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 28 yds · 2:0892% → 92%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
7.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for no gain to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
7.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 3 yds to the Charl 48Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-7
7.5%
Jason Driskel run for a loss of 7 yards to the FlAtl 45 Jason Driskel fumbled,Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+20
7.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 20 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 18
OPP 43
0
8.3%
Ryan Rickel punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Nate Mullen at the Charl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD11 plays · 59 yds · 3:2991% → 94%
Q2 12:17
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+2
8.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 2 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
8.6%
DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete to ROSE, Ocie, PENALTY CHA holding (JORDAN, Quinton) 10 yards to the CHA24, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
8.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for no gain to the Charl 13Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 2
OPP 5
-15
8.7%
Devin Singletary run for no gain to the Charl 5 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (Devin Singletary) to the Charl 20Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 17
OPP 20
+20
5.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 20 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10TD8 plays · 76 yds · 3:147% → 9%
Q2 8:48
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+16
7.3%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Chris Phillips for 16 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
10.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Benny LeMay for 28 yds for a TD, (Kyle Corbett PAT MISSED)Similar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 0
OWN 0
0
9.2%
MACAULEY, Nigel kickoff 54 yards to the FAU11, WHYTE, Kerrith return to the CHA0, clock 05:34, PENALTY FAU holding off-setting, PENALTY CHA personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11TD11 plays · 82 yds · 4:3490% → 95%
Q2 5:34
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-5
9.4%
John Franklin III run for a loss of 5 yards to the Charl 47 John Franklin III fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Willie WrightSimilar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+6
9.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 6 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 8
OPP 41
+41
4.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 41 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 0:106% → 6%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
6.3%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Kevin McCrary for a loss of 6 yards to the Charl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-12
6.0%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Azeez Al-Shaair and Jeremiah Taleni for a loss of 12 yards to the Charl 11Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+6
5.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to R.J. Tyler for 6 yds to the Charl 25Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+2
5.9%
Arthur Hart punt for 46 yds , Jalen Young returns for 2 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15TD8 plays · 69 yds · 2:3695% → 99%
Q3 12:38
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+23
5.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to D'Anfernee McGriff for 23 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
4.8%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 12 yds to the Charl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+17
4.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to D'Anfernee McGriff for 17 yds to the Charl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+8
4.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to D'Anfernee McGriff for 8 yds to the Charl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.0%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 6 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-8
1.0%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Jeremiah Taleni for a loss of 8 yards to the Charl 23Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
0.8%
Arthur Hart punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen Young at the FlAtl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17FUMBLE5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
1.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for no gain to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
1.0%
Devin Singletary run for 8 yds to the Charl 45 Devin Singletary fumbled, forced by Ben DeLuca, recovered by Charl Ed Rolle , return for 10 yds to the Charl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19FUMBLE3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
CLTDrive 20TD4 plays · 22 yds · 1:261% → 6%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
0.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 13 yds to the FlAtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21DOWNS6 plays · 52 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+44
2.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 44 yds to the Charl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22DOWNS23 plays · 76 yds · 15:007% → 3%
Q3 11:04
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+10
6.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 10 yds to the FlAtl 4Similar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 3
OPP 4
0
6.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Herb MillerSimilar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
4.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Workpeh Kofa, broken up by Chris TooleySimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+27
5.0%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Trent Bostick for 27 yds to the FlAtl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-4
5.4%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Rashad Smith and Steven Leggett for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
4.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Workpeh Kofa, broken up by Chris TooleySimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+27
5.0%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Trent Bostick for 27 yds to the FlAtl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-4
5.4%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Rashad Smith and Steven Leggett for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+10
3.2%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 10 yds to the FlAtl 4Similar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 3
OPP 4
0
3.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Herb MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23DOWNS28 plays · 86 yds · 15:0096% → 98%
Q3 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+5
3.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 5 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
3.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to John Franklin III for 18 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+5
1.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 5 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
1.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to John Franklin III for 18 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:302% → 1%
FAUDrive 25END OF GAME3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:48
Hasaan Klugh 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+4.9
TD · Q2 1:00
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 41 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
-4.8
TD · Q3 10:02
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
-3.6