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MRSH

Marshall 7 at UTSA 9

UTSA
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Kaare Vedvik punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brady Jones at the TexSA 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Pregame prior+8.9Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Blowout margin+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:23: Timeout MARSHALL, clock 09:23 — UTSA win probability +10.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 1:31: Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 20 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK) — MRSH win probability +54.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:31: Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30 — UTSA win probability +14.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:09: Timeout UT SAN ANTONIO, clock 00:09 — MRSH win probability +9.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. FG · Q4 0:02: Jared Sackett 40 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +58.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00MRSH 4th & 3 at UTSA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:00UTSA 4th & 5 at MRSH 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00MRSH 4th & 9 at UTSA 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:54UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:35MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:40UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 44, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:56UTSA 4th & 4 at MRSH 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    63.2%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:07UTSA 4th & 3 at MRSH 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.9
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.9%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00UTSA 4th & 7 at MRSH 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:43MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 45, down 6
    Close callPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00UTSA 4th & 19 at UTSA 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−4.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:23MRSH 4th & 10 at UTSA 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:16UTSA 4th & 6 at MRSH 17, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.1%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    83.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−9.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 1:31MRSH Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−4.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
61.9%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
61.9%
Chase Litton run for 8 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
61.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 5 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
61.9%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+2
61.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 2 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
61.9%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2FG
17 plays · 75 yds · 8:4562% → 63%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
61.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 11 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
61.9%
Tyrell Clay run for 3 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
61.9%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+5
61.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 5 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
62.1%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
62.2%
Tyrell Clay run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 3
50
+12
62.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 12 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
62.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+18
62.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Blaze Moorhead for 18 yds to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
62.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 4 yds to the Marsh 16Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-7
62.4%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Davon Durant and Chris Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 23Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+18
62.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 18 yds to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
62.4%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 6Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
62.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 2 yds to the Marsh 4Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
62.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 5Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+24
62.8%
Jared Sackett 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 3:0038% → 38%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
62.3%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+1
62.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 1 yd to the Marsh 37Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+4
62.4%
LITTON, Chase slant pass incomplete to MATHEWS, Nick (Godfrey), PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Godfrey) 4 yards to the MAR41, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
61.7%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-4
61.6%
Tyler King run for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 42Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+10
62.2%
Keion Davis run for 10 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
60.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 49
-1
61.5%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+5
62.3%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
62.2%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brady Jones at the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
62.0%
Tyrell Clay run for 6 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+1
62.2%
Brett Winnegan run for 1 yd to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
61.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+12
60.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 27 , Hyleck Foster returns for 12 yds to the Marsh 34 MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive holding (15 Yards) to the Marsh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
62.2%
Tyler King run for 3 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+7
61.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Nick Mathews for 7 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
61.7%
Tyler King run for 1 yd to the Marsh 38Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-2
61.5%
Tyler King run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 36Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
63.0%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan Yurachek, broken up by Eric BanksSimilar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+1
63.5%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 44 yds , Brady Jones returns for 1 yd to the TexSA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
62.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Chance McLeod for 13 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
62.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 2 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+8
63.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
64.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 45Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-1
63.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
62.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+3
61.3%
Yannis Routsas pass complete to Matt Bayliss for 3 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
60.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Nick Mathews for 19 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
58.8%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-5
58.8%
Chase Litton run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 29 Chase Litton fumbled, recovered by TexSA Jim PhilistinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8FG
19 plays · 64 yds · 4:1764% → 70%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
63.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+17
63.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 17 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
65.7%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
65.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+6
65.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
66.1%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 42Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+8
65.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 8 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
65.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+5
64.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 5 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
67.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+15
67.3%
Sturm deep pass incomplete to Thomas Jr., PENALTY MAR pass interference (ALLEN, Rodney) 15 yards to the MAR14, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
67.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+8
67.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 8 yds to the Marsh 6Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 2
OPP 6
-1
66.3%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 7Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
70.0%
Jared Sackett 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
70.2%
MARSHALL Penalty, player disqualification (Ryan Bee) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
69.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.6%
Tyrell Clay run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
71.0%
Tyrell Clay run for 9 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
71.8%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+5
71.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+5
71.3%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
70.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-1
72.6%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+3
71.7%
Kerry Thomas Jr. run for 3 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+1
71.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd to the Marsh 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
69.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
69.4%
Chase Litton pass intercepted Austin Jupe return for 1 yd to the Marsh 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
74.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 10 yds to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
74.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the Marsh 20Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+3
74.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+11
73.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 11 yds to the Marsh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 0
OPP 6
+1
75.9%
Tyrell Clay run for 1 yd to the Marsh 4 Tyrell Clay fumbled, forced by Channing Hames, recovered by Marsh Jaquan YuleeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
70.3%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the Marsh 5Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+5
70.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Nick Mathews for 5 yds to the Marsh 10Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 4
OWN 10
-5
71.4%
MARSHALL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 5Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 9
OWN 5
+14
71.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 14 yds to the Marsh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
69.6%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the Marsh 22Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-6
69.7%
Chase Litton sacked by Kevin Strong Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 16Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+22
71.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 22 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
68.2%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
67.3%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
66.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:43
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
69.4%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Brady Jones at the TexSA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 1:0677% → 75%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
76.5%
MARSHALL Penalty, offside defense (Ty Tyler) to the TexSA 12Similar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 5
OWN 12
+2
77.2%
Brett Winnegan run for 2 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+5
76.9%
Tyrell Clay run for 5 yds to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
77.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 1 yd to the TexSA 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+5
77.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 5 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+30
76.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 30 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
80.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Chance McLeodSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-9
80.1%
Brett Winnegan run for 1 yd to the TexSA 44 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive holding (Austin Pratt) to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 46
0
78.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 46
0
77.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 46
0
75.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:4827% → 20%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
73.1%
Tyler King run for 1 yd to the Marsh 20Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+43
73.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 43 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
68.3%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
68.3%
Tyler King run for 3 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+2
68.7%
Tyler King run for 2 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 5
OPP 32
-5
78.7%
MARSHALL Penalty, false start (Obi Obialo) to the TexSA 37Similar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
80.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Obi Obialo, broken up by Austin JupeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
86.8%
Brett Winnegan run for 3 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+18
87.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 18 yds to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
87.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+15
88.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 15 yds to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
88.6%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the Marsh 21Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-2
88.6%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 23Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+11
87.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 11 yds to the Marsh 12Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 1
OPP 12
-5
86.8%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Reed Darragh) to the Marsh 17Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 6
OPP 17
-7
86.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexSA Yannis RoutsasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:4316% → 75%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
84.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan Yurachek, broken up by Baylen BakerSimilar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
84.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Donquell Green for 1 yd to the Marsh 27Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+10
85.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 10 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Hyleck FosterSimilar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
83.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 7 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
81.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
50
+30
79.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Keion Davis for 30 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
24.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 20 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18FG
16 plays · 52 yds · 1:2948% → 95%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
49.2%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Austin Pratt) to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
47.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 14 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
50.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 14 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
49.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 13 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
54.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
54.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
49.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 11 yds to the Marsh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
53.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
43.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+40
95.3%
Jared Sackett 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:02
Jared Sackett 40 yd FG GOOD
+58.4
TD · Q4 1:31
Chase Litton pass complete to Hyleck Foster for 20 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)
-54.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:31
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com