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CLT

Charlotte 21 at Southern Miss 66

USM
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:09 · Arthur Hart punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Pregame prior+13.7Home team on offense+34.4Score differential+27.7Blowout margin+14.5Garbage-time factor+8.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 3:15: Parker Shaunfield 30 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +1.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:00: Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +3.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:38: Hasaan Klugh pass intercepted for a TD Kelsey Douglas return for 48 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +2.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:00: Benny LeMay run for 11 yds for a TD, (Kyle Corbett KICK) — CLT win probability +2.8 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:34: Ito Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kwadra Griggs pass to Korey Robertson for Two-Point Conversion) — USM win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5CLT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:20USM 4th & 6 at CLT 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:24CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:15USM 4th & 5 at CLT 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:24CLT 4th & 6 at USM 35, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:00USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, up 20
    Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:38CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:24USM 4th & 1 at CLT 4, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.1%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:34CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:46CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 48, down 38
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:52CLT 4th & 9 at USM 10, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:45USM 4th & 3 at USM 44, up 38
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:09CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 33, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:35CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 26, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CLT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:29USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:00USM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:38USM Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:00CLT Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:34USM Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:06USM Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:48USM Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:52CLT Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:43USM Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:17CLT Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:35USM Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.5%
KLUGH, Hasaan deep out pass incomplete to FORD II, T.L., PENALTY USM offside defense (RODRIGUEZ, M.) 5 yards to the CHA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
89.5%
Benny LeMay run for 2 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
89.5%
Benny LeMay run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
89.5%
Arthur Hart punt for 30 yds, downed at the SoMis 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:2289% → 89%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
89.2%
Kwadra Griggs run for 4 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+10
89.2%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
89.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+13
89.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 13 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+5
89.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 5 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
89.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 9 yds to the Charl 24Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+2
89.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 2 yds to the Charl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
89.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 13 yds to the Charl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
89.2%
Tez Parks run for 3 yds to the Charl 6Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
89.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q1 13:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
89.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
88.5%
Parker Shaunfield 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3INT TD
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:5112% → 12%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.4%
Hasaan Klugh run for 1 yd to the Charl 26Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
88.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Trent Bostick for 7 yds to the Charl 33Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
88.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to R.J. Tyler for 4 yds to the Charl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
88.3%
Benny LeMay run for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 34Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 13
OWN 34
-5
88.4%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Charl 29Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+14
88.4%
Benny LeMay run for 14 yds to the Charl 43Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+52
88.3%
Hasaan Klugh pass intercepted for a TD Kelsey Douglas return for 52 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
88.5%
Aaron McAllister run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 13Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+1
88.5%
Aaron McAllister run for 1 yd to the Charl 14Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+4
88.7%
Aaron McAllister run for 4 yds to the Charl 18Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
88.7%
Arthur Hart punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:0689% → 90%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
88.8%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the Charl 45Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+6
88.9%
Kwadra Griggs run for 6 yds to the Charl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
88.9%
Tez Parks run for 21 yds to the Charl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
88.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
88.9%
Kwadra Griggs run for 5 yds to the Charl 13Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
88.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
90.2%
Parker Shaunfield 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6DOWNS
12 plays · 30 yds · 1:5110% → 11%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.7%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
89.8%
Benny LeMay run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 33Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+13
89.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 13 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Mark QuattlebaumSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
89.7%
Benny LeMay run for 8 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+7
89.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to R.J. Tyler for 7 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
89.5%
Benny LeMay run for 4 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
88.3%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to T.L. Ford IISimilar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
88.7%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to T.L. Ford IISimilar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
88.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:3090% → 94%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
89.9%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+13
90.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 13 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
90.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+14
90.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 14 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
90.3%
Kwadra Griggs run for 9 yds to the Charl 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 23
-1
90.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+6
90.2%
Kwadra Griggs run for 6 yds to the Charl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
90.3%
Kwadra Griggs run for 6 yds to the Charl 12 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, face mask (6 yards) (Markevis Davis) to the Charl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
90.3%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the Charl 1Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.2%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8INT TD
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:136% → 3%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
93.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 11 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
93.4%
Aaron McAllister run for a loss of 5 yards to the Charl 43Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
93.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Trent BostickSimilar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+48
96.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass intercepted for a TD Kelsey Douglas return for 48 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:264% → 7%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
96.1%
Hasaan Klugh run for 20 yds to the SoMis 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
93.3%
Benny LeMay run for 11 yds for a TD, (Kyle Corbett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
94.0%
Kwadra Griggs run for 6 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
93.9%
Zac Everett punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:096% → 5%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
94.5%
Aaron McAllister run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 24Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
94.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Trent BostickSimilar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
94.7%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Aaron McAllister for 6 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+20
94.9%
Arthur Hart punt for 37 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 20 yds to the 50 yard line CHARLOTTE Penalty, personal foul (Arthur Hart) to the Charl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:5095% → 98%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
95.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+18
95.0%
Ito Smith run for 18 yds to the Charl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
95.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Charl 11Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+1
95.0%
Kwadra Griggs run for 1 yd to the Charl 10Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+6
94.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 6 yds to the Charl 4Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+1
94.6%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Charl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.4%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kwadra Griggs pass to Korey Robertson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.3%
Benny LeMay run for 7 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.3%
Benny LeMay run for no gain to the Charl 32Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.2%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to R.J. TylerSimilar
Q2 3:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
99.2%
Arthur Hart punt for 56 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14FG
12 plays · 89 yds · 2:0898% → 99%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+14
98.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 14 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
98.4%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+15
98.4%
GRIGGS, Kwadra play action pass intercepted by DAVIS, Markevis at the USM39, DAVIS, Markevis return to the USM7, fumble forced by ROBERTSON, K., fumble by DAVIS, Markevis recovered by USM FARRIOR, Devin at USM7, PENALTY CHA roughing passer 15 yards to the USM41, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
98.5%
Tez Parks run for 3 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+12
98.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Quez Watkins for 12 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
98.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Quez Watkins for 8 yds to the Charl 36Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+30
98.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Quez Watkins for 30 yds to the Charl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
98.9%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the Charl 4Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
99.0%
Parker Shaunfield 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5499% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to T'Rod Daniels for 9 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
99.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 8 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
99.1%
Ito Smith run for 13 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 1 yd to the Charl 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-1
99.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 45Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+45
99.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 45 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:141% → 1%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.4%
Benny LeMay run for no gain to the Charl 32Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-4
99.4%
Benny LeMay run for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 28Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+15
99.4%
KLUGH, Hasaan crossing pass incomplete to LEMAY, Uriah (APPLEWHITE, J.), PENALTY USM personal foul 15 yards to the CHA43, 1ST DOWN CHA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.4%
Benny LeMay run for 3 yds to the Charl 46Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
99.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+2
99.5%
Hasaan Klugh run for 2 yds to the Charl 48Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
99.4%
Arthur Hart punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
99.6%
Ito Smith run for 80 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:480% → 0%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
99.7%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Trent Bostick for 9 yds to the Charl 37Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+7
99.7%
Aaron McAllister run for 7 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
99.7%
Aaron McAllister run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 43Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+26
99.7%
Hasaan Klugh run for 26 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Tarvarius MooreSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+20
99.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 20 yds to the SoMis 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.6%
Hasaan Klugh run for 1 yd to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
99.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Tarvarius MooreSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
99.7%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Mark Quattlebaum, broken up by Tarvarius MooreSimilar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+10
99.7%
Hasaan Klugh run for 10 yds for a TD, (Kyle Corbett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
99.7%
Tez Parks run for 11 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.7%
Kwadra Griggs run for 2 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
99.7%
T'Rod Daniels run for 5 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
99.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Tez ParksSimilar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+6
99.7%
Zac Everett punt for 36 yds , Nate Mullen returns for 6 yds to the Charl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.8%
Benny LeMay run for 7 yds to the Charl 33Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Benny LeMay run for no gain to the Charl 33Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Mark QuattlebaumSimilar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Arthur Hart punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 6:51100% → 100%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
99.8%
Tez Parks run for 5 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+6
99.8%
Kwadra Griggs run for 6 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.8%
Tez Parks run for 3 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+15
99.8%
Tez Parks run for no gain to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Alex Highsmith) to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
99.8%
Tez Parks run for 8 yds to the Charl 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+25
99.8%
Tez Parks run for 25 yds to the Charl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
99.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Trevor Terry for 6 yds to the Charl 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+11
99.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Quez Watkins for 11 yds to the Charl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
99.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Jerry Harris) to the Charl 10Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
99.8%
Tez Parks run for 8 yds to the Charl 2Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:190% → 0%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
Aaron McAllister run for 3 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+17
99.9%
Aaron McAllister run for 17 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
99.9%
Aaron McAllister run for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+3
99.9%
Aaron McAllister run for 3 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
99.9%
Aaron McAllister run for 1 yd to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
99.9%
Aaron McAllister run for 7 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-4
99.9%
Hasaan Klugh run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
99.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to T.L. Ford II for 19 yds for a TD, (Kyle Corbett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
99.9%
T'Rod Daniels run for 19 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-7
99.9%
T'Rod Daniels run for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 17
OWN 47
+53
100.0%
T'Rod Daniels run for 53 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
100.0%
Aaron McAllister run for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 22Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
100.0%
Aaron McAllister run for 6 yds to the Charl 28Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
100.0%
Aaron McAllister run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 26Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Arthur Hart punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:00
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q2 3:34
Ito Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kwadra Griggs pass to Korey Robertson for Two-Point Conversion)
+3.8
TD · Q2 10:38
Hasaan Klugh pass intercepted for a TD Kelsey Douglas return for 48 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com