Try the model
UAB

UAB 24 at UTSA 19

UTSA
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUAB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Joel Dixon punt for 43 yds , Brady Jones returns for no gain to the TexSA 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense−17.0Pregame prior+10.4Score differential−8.7Garbage-time factor−4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:15: A.J. Erdely pass complete to Ronnie Turner Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +5.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:18: Jared Sackett 26 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +3.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:16: Dalton Sturm run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +12.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 8:32: Nick Vogel 48 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +4.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:11: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 17 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UTSA win probability +21.1 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UAB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:24UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:12UAB 4th & 9 at UAB 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:34UTSA 4th & 3 at UAB 11, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 47, down 11
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:24UAB 4th & 1 at UTSA 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−6.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:24UTSA 4th & 17 at UTSA 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:09UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 16, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:18UTSA 4th & 9 at UAB 9, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00UAB 4th & 7 at UAB 25, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:17UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 35, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:21UAB 4th & 5 at UAB 35, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:30UTSA 4th & 16 at UTSA 34, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−3.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:16UAB 4th & 9 at UAB 12, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−3.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:32UAB 4th & 12 at UTSA 31, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:32UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:47UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 16, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:00UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 43, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:00UTSA 4th & 2 at UAB 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−3.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 0 of 2UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:24UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:15UAB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:24UAB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:16UTSA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:11UTSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.1 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.7%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
70.6%
Greg Campbell Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+2
70.6%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted Will Dawkins return for 2 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2TD
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:4530% → 32%
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
70.4%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+1
70.4%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+5
70.4%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Donnie Lee for 5 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
70.4%
Spencer Brown run for 12 yds to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
70.4%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the TexSA 4Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.5%
A.J. Erdely run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
69.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr., broken up by Brontae HarrisSimilar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
68.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the TexSA 23Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
68.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr.Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
68.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 58 yds, downed at the UAB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
68.3%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Donnie Lee for no gain to the UAB 19Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
68.3%
A.J. Erdely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-5
68.4%
UAB Penalty, false start (Garrett Marino) to the UAB 14Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 15
OWN 14
+6
68.4%
James Noble III run for 6 yds to the UAB 20Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
68.6%
Joel Dixon punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brady Jones at the TexSA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5FG
5 plays · 44 yds · 2:1768% → 68%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+37
67.9%
Greg Campbell Jr. run for 37 yds to the UAB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
68.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the UAB 14Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
68.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the UAB 14Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+3
68.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the UAB 11Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
68.2%
Jared Sackett 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1932% → 39%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
67.9%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Kailon Carter for 11 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
67.6%
A.J. Erdely run for 7 yds to the UAB 43Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
67.4%
Spencer Brown run for 8 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
67.2%
Spencer Brown run for 9 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+3
67.1%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
67.2%
Spencer Brown run for 14 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
66.9%
Andre Wilson run for 13 yds to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
66.9%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the TexSA 8Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
66.9%
A.J. Erdely run for 2 yds to the TexSA 6Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
61.2%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Ronnie Turner Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:1562% → 61%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.9%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
62.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
61.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 14 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
62.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
62.4%
Tyrell Clay run for no gain to the TexSA 41Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+6
62.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 6 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
60.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 42 yds, downed at the UAB 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8TD
19 plays · 89 yds · 8:2640% → 52%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
60.5%
Spencer Brown run for 11 yds to the UAB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
60.4%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 2 yds to the UAB 24Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
60.4%
Donnie Lee run for 4 yds to the UAB 28Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+4
60.4%
A.J. Erdely run for 4 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
60.1%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+3
59.6%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
59.5%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 43Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
59.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 5 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+12
55.6%
Kailon Carter run for 12 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
55.1%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the TexSA 39Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+12
55.1%
Andre Wilson run for 12 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
55.1%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Donnie LeeSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+20
55.1%
Donnie Lee run for 20 yds to the TexSA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
55.1%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the TexSA 5Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
55.1%
Kailon Carter run for 1 yd to the TexSA 4Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
55.2%
A.J. Erdely run for 3 yds to the TexSA 1Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.2%
A.J. Erdely run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
13 plays · 22 yds · 0:0043% → 44%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
43.3%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
43.1%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
42.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 14 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
45.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
44.7%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 36Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+14
43.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 1
50
+4
45.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
45.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Tyrell ClaySimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
45.4%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 15
OWN 49
-2
44.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 47Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 17
OWN 47
0
44.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Brady Jones, broken up by Garrison MitchellSimilar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
44.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 43 yds, downed at the UAB 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
40.8%
A.J. Erdely run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 9Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+6
39.8%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the UAB 15Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+1
40.7%
Jonathan Haden run for 1 yd to the UAB 16Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+50
41.2%
Joel Dixon punt for 50 yds , Brady Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 1:2135% → 40%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
34.8%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+5
34.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+10
34.3%
Sturm middle pass incomplete to Jones,B, PENALTY UAB pass interference (MITCHELL, G.) 10 yards to the UTSA44, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
36.8%
Sturm deep pass incomplete to McNair, PENALTY UAB pass interference (PETTY, J.) 15 yards to the UAB41, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
37.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 8 yds to the UAB 33Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+14
39.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 14 yds to the UAB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
39.5%
UAB Penalty, personal foul (Broderick Thomas) to the UAB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
39.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
38.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Darious WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
36.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
40.4%
Jared Sackett 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
35.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
34.9%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the UAB 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-10
34.7%
ERDELY, A.J. pass complete to TURNER Jr., R. for 9 yards to the UAB34 (Austin III), PENALTY UAB IB (DAVIS, J.) 10 yards to the UAB15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+5
35.2%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the UAB 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+5
35.8%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the UAB 25Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
36.1%
Joel Dixon punt for 43 yds , Brady Jones returns for no gain to the TexSA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
35.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
35.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Jalen RhodesSimilar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
34.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNair, broken up by Jordan PettySimilar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
34.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
29.3%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the UAB 33Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-6
29.2%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 27Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+8
30.4%
Spencer Brown run for 8 yds to the UAB 35Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
30.2%
Joel Dixon punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brady Jones at the TexSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16FUMBLE
8 plays · 54 yds · 0:0030% → 33%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
29.9%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the TexSA 19Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
29.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 1 yd to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+13
29.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 13 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
30.4%
Tyrell Clay run for no gain to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
30.1%
Tyrell Clay run for 6 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+10
31.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 10 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
32.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+17
33.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 17 yds to the UAB 27 Jalen Rhodes fumbled, forced by Broderick Thomas, recovered by UAB Jordan PettySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0079% → 80%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
20.9%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 28Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+4
21.0%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+10
21.2%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 10 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
20.0%
A.J. Erdely pass intercepted Devron Davis return for 2 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
23.3%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 25Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+3
22.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Chance McLeod for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+12
22.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Tyrell Clay for 12 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
24.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
23.7%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 39Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-5
22.9%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Tevin Crews for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
22.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 43 yds, downed at the UAB 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
15.5%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-1
15.4%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 26Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+10
15.7%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Ronnie Turner Jr. for 10 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.0%
A.J. Erdely run for no gain to the UAB 35 A.J. Erdely fumbled, forced by Franklin Uesi, recovered by TexSA La'Kel BassSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:0823% → 34%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
22.6%
Tyrell Clay run for 10 yds to the UAB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
22.7%
Brett Winnegan run for 10 yds to the UAB 15 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, illegal block (Josh Stewart) to the UAB 25Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
22.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
22.1%
Sturm middle pass complete to McNair for 15 yards to the UAB10 (KEELY, S.;MITCHELL, G.), PENALTY UTSA illegal block (Williams,S) 10 yards to the UAB35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+13
21.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 13 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
33.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
26.7%
A.J. Erdely run for 1 yd to the UAB 12Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
26.9%
A.J. Erdely run for no gain to the UAB 12Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
27.7%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre WilsonSimilar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 9
OWN 12
+13
28.7%
Joel Dixon punt for 45 yds , Brady Jones returns for 13 yds to the UAB 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
32.3%
Tyrell Clay run for 5 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-1
32.5%
Tyrell Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 40Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-10
31.8%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Thomas Johnston for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSA 46 Dalton Sturm fumbled, recovered by UAB Garrett Marino , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:4781% → 86%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
19.2%
A.J. Erdely run for 17 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
18.4%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
18.4%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre WilsonSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 7
OPP 26
-5
19.3%
A.J. Erdely sacked by La'Kel Bass for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 31Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+48
14.5%
Nick Vogel 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
16.5%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
16.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Tyrell Clay for 5 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
16.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
16.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+2
16.3%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
15.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:1891% → 92%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
9.2%
Kailon Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 9Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+7
9.0%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the UAB 16Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
8.4%
A.J. Erdely run for no gain to the UAB 16Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
8.2%
Joel Dixon punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Brady Jones at the TexSA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26TD
13 plays · 54 yds · 2:498% → 25%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
8.4%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
7.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Darious WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
7.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 13
OWN 43
+15
6.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 15 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
9.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
9.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+8
8.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 8 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+5
9.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 5 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
7.3%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 34Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+5
4.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 5 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+12
3.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 12 yds to the UAB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
24.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 17 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 45Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-2
5.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:11
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 17 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+21.1
TD · Q4 13:16
Dalton Sturm run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)
+12.5
TD · Q1 2:15
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Ronnie Turner Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com