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USM

Southern Miss 43 at Rice 34

RICE
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:15 · Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the Rice 16 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior−26.1Home team on offense−3.2Score differential−1.6Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:39: Nahshon Ellerbe run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — RICE win probability +14.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:30: Nahshon Ellerbe run for 17 yds for a TD, (Will Harrison KICK) — RICE win probability +17.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 0:43: Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 47 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +15.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:05: Nahshon Ellerbe run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Harrison KICK) — RICE win probability +24.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 2:55: Ito Smith run for 18 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +27.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:53USM 4th & 7 at RICE 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:53RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:34RICE 4th & 18 at RICE 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:15USM 4th & 1 at RICE 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.7%−0.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:16USM 4th & 6 at RICE 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:29RICE 4th & 2 at USM 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.2%−1.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q4 7:05USM 4th & 3 at RICE 32, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−4.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−8.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 1:34RICE 4th & 9 at USM 48, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:34USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:02RICE Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:15USM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:28RICE Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:39RICE Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:20USM Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:30RICE Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:43USM Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:05RICE Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−1.7
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:55USM Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:0780% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
20.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Tez Parks for 14 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
20.2%
Ito Smith run for 11 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
20.2%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
20.2%
Tez Parks run for 3 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-2
20.2%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+15
20.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 15 yds to the Rice 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
20.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
20.2%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
20.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Brandon Douglas-DotsonSimilar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
21.9%
Parker Shaunfield 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
22.0%
Austin Walter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 24Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-7
21.9%
Miklo Smalls sacked by Xavier Thigpen for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 17Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
21.8%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for no gain to the Rice 30 Nahshon Ellerbe fumbled, forced by Jacques Turner, recovered by Rice Nahshon EllerbeSimilar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+20
21.8%
Jack Fox punt for 41 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 20 yds to the 50 yard line SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SoMis 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 1:1377% → 79%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
22.6%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+11
22.7%
Ito Smith run for 11 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
21.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Tim Jones for 51 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
21.6%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 8Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+26
21.6%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 26 yds to the Rice 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
21.8%
Miklo Smalls sacked by Racheem Boothe for a loss of 10 yards to the Rice 24 Miklo Smalls fumbled, recovered by Rice Sam Pierce , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 20
OWN 24
-6
21.6%
Miklo Smalls pass complete to Robby Wells III for a loss of 6 yards to the Rice 18Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 26
OWN 18
+8
21.5%
Miklo Smalls run for 8 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 18
OWN 26
0
21.4%
Jack Fox punt for 57 yds, downed at the SoMis 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:5978% → 80%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
22.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Tez Parks for 2 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+12
22.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 12 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
21.9%
Tez Parks run for 5 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+35
21.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 35 yds to the Rice 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
21.5%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Rice 27Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
21.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Tim Jones for 5 yds to the Rice 22Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
21.7%
T'Rod Daniels run for 2 yds to the Rice 20Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+4
21.9%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the Rice 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
21.5%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the Rice 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
21.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-1
21.8%
Kwadra Griggs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 12Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
20.0%
Parker Shaunfield 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:1421% → 29%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
21.0%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the Rice 27Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
21.1%
Miklo Smalls run for 4 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
21.1%
Miklo Smalls pass complete to Austin Walter for 4 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
21.3%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 12 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
21.8%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 6 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
22.0%
Miklo Smalls run for no gain to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+2
21.8%
Miklo Smalls pass complete to Austin Walter for 2 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+3
22.3%
Austin Walter run for 3 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
22.6%
Austin Trammell run for 7 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+21
23.5%
Miklo Smalls run for 8 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Xavier Thigpen) to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
23.5%
Miklo Smalls sacked by Xavier Thigpen for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 14
OPP 18
+18
29.1%
Austin Walter run for 18 yds for a TD, (Will Harrison KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:4776% → 80%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
24.4%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
23.7%
Kwadra Griggs run for 8 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+12
23.2%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the Rice 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
23.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Tez ParksSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
23.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 13 yds to the Rice 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
23.0%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the Rice 14Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+12
23.0%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the Rice 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
19.6%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:4721% → 33%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.3%
Miklo Smalls run for 1 yd to the Rice 26Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+22
21.3%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 22 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
22.5%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for no gain to the Rice 48Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
22.3%
Miklo Smalls pass complete to Austin Walter for 10 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
22.8%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
22.8%
Miklo Smalls pass incomplete to Nahshon EllerbeSimilar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+15
22.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Curtis Mikell) to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
24.1%
Will Phillips run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+14
23.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Rod Crayton) to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
24.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Rod Crayton) to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
32.6%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 7 yds for a TD, (Will Harrison KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 1:2872% → 82%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
28.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 10 yds to the SoMis 32 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Allenzae Staggers) to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
28.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 3 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+8
27.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 8 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
27.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
27.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+11
28.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 11 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
25.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 12 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
24.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
25.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 10 yds to the Rice 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+51
18.2%
Parker Shaunfield 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2122% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
22.4%
Austin Trammell run for 14 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
23.2%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for no gain to the Rice 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
23.1%
Miklo Smalls pass incomplete to Aaron CephusSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+33
22.3%
Miklo Smalls pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 33 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
26.0%
Austin Trammell run for 5 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+1
26.0%
Austin Walter run for 1 yd to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+10
24.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding (Curtis Mikell) to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
39.8%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1967% → 80%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.2%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
32.5%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
31.2%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
31.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 1
50
-5
30.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Isaiah Jones) to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+12
31.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 12 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
30.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 19 yds to the Rice 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
29.2%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Rice 21Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+11
29.2%
Ito Smith run for 11 yds to the Rice 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
29.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Rice 8Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
29.2%
Kwadra Griggs run for 3 yds to the Rice 5Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
19.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:5022% → 43%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
22.1%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 1 yd to the Rice 28Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+13
22.1%
Miklo Smalls pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 13 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
23.3%
Miklo Smalls pass incomplete to Austin WalterSimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+36
22.9%
Miklo Smalls pass complete to Parker Smith for 36 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
25.9%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 3 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+3
25.9%
Will Phillips run for 3 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+17
43.3%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 17 yds for a TD, (Will Harrison KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4764% → 83%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
35.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 14 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
33.3%
Tez Parks run for 10 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
32.5%
Tez Parks run for 4 yds to the Rice 47Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+47
16.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 47 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14TD
17 plays · 91 yds · 8:3820% → 49%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
19.5%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 5 yds to the Rice 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 14
-1
19.8%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+13
18.6%
Miklo Smalls pass complete to Austin Walter for 13 yds to the Rice 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
20.2%
Miklo Smalls pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 15 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
21.5%
Miklo Smalls pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 7 yds to the Rice 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-5
22.6%
RICE Penalty, false start (Will Phillips) to the Rice 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+6
21.5%
Miklo Smalls run for 6 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+20
21.9%
Miklo Smalls run for 20 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
24.7%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 2 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+8
24.7%
Austin Walter run for 8 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
24.7%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 2 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+11
24.7%
Miklo Smalls run for 11 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
24.7%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 7 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
24.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, sideline interference ( Yards) to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
24.7%
Miklo Smalls run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.0%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Harrison KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:1066% → 93%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
34.2%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
34.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+15
36.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
50
+3
31.2%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Rice 47Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
31.3%
Kwadra Griggs run for 8 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
31.2%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Rice 36Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
30.8%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
31.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+14
34.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Quez Watkins for 14 yds to the Rice 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
7.2%
Ito Smith run for 18 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16DOWNS
14 plays · 24 yds · 1:2110% → 5%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
9.6%
Miklo Smalls pass incomplete to Parker Smith, broken up by Paxton SchrimsherSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+18
9.4%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 18 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
11.0%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for no gain to the Rice 41Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
7.8%
Miklo Smalls run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 1
50
+1
8.7%
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 1 yd to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
8.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
8.3%
Miklo Smalls pass incomplete to Parker SmithSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+1
6.7%
Miklo Smalls run for 1 yd to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 9
OPP 48
-5
4.9%
Miklo Smalls sacked by Paxton Schrimsher for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17END OF GAME
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 14
OWN 49
-4
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:55
Ito Smith run for 18 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-27.6
TD · Q4 7:05
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Harrison KICK)
+24.3
TD · Q3 2:30
Nahshon Ellerbe run for 17 yds for a TD, (Will Harrison KICK)
+17.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com