2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreMTSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:25 · Arthur Hart punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:23: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Watkins for 6 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:47: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 63 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:05: Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Corbett KICK) — CLT win probability +4.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:17: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 4 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:59: Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Trent Bostick for 26 yds for a TD, (Kyle Corbett KICK) — CLT win probability +2.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 15:00MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snapGo for it83.1%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.2%average punt
- Q1 11:28MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 34, down 7Close callPunted · 80.6% before the snapGo for it80.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:42CLT 4th & 13 at CLT 33, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snapGo for it20.5%−0.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.8%average punt
- Q1 4:25CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 34, tiedClose callPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it22.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 15:00CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snapGo for it19.9%−0.533% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.4%average punt
- Q2 7:56CLT 4th & 8 at MTSU 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.3%−0.332% to convertField goalTheir call16.5%77% to makePunt14.6%−1.9average punt
- Q2 6:47CLT 4th & 26 at CLT 42, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snapGo for it10.2%−0.97% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.1%average punt
- Q2 4:49MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 41, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snapGo for it91.2%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.3%average punt
- Q2 2:28CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snapGo for it9.7%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.9%average punt
- Q3 12:05MTSU 4th & 11 at CLT 44, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snapGo for it86.0%−0.627% to convertField goal85.6%−1.027% to makePuntTheir call86.5%average punt
- Q3 8:02CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 16, down 14Close callPunted · 12.7% before the snapGo for it13.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.8%−0.3average punt
- Q3 5:50MTSU 4th & 3 at CLT 35, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.3%53% to convertField goal88.0%−1.345% to makePunt87.3%−2.0average punt
- Q3 3:20CLT 4th & 11 at MTSU 23, down 14Close callWent for it · 12.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.0%−0.825% to convertField goal12.8%70% to makePunt9.2%−3.6average punt
- Q4 15:00MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 19, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snapGo for it89.2%−1.525% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.7%average punt
- Q4 13:40CLT 4th & 14 at MTSU 42, down 14Close callWent for it · 11.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.7%−0.719% to convertField goal11.0%−0.430% to makePunt11.4%average punt
- Q4 7:17CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q4 6:15MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 45, up 21Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 11:28CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.4%97% to makeGo for two19.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:25MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.1%97% to makeGo for two77.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:41MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.7%97% to makeGo for two78.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:23MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.2%97% to makeGo for two82.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:47MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:05CLT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.1%97% to makeGo for two13.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:17MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:59CLT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.2%97% to makeGo for two3.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMTSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Anthony ButlerSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
13.8%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Tyriq Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+3
13.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 3 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
13.8%
Matt Bonadies punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 48 , Nate Mullen returns for no gain to the MTnSt 48 Nate Mullen fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2TD6 plays · 48 yds · 2:1315% → 16%
Q1 13:41
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+10
14.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to R.J. Tyler for 10 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+9
14.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Nate Mullen for 9 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
14.5%
KLUGH, Hasaan pass complete to BOSTICK, Trent for 6 yards to the MT15, out-of-bounds (THOMAS, DQ), PENALTY MT 12 men on the field 5 yards to the MT16, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
CLTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-12
17.7%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 3 yds to the Charl 39 CHARLOTTE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Charl 24Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
17.3%
Arthur Hart punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5TD8 plays · 77 yds · 3:4481% → 82%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
18.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavonn Salter for 5 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+40
18.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 40 yds to the Charl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
18.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Shane Tucker for 3 yds to the Charl 28Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+16
18.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 3 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, face mask (13 yards) (Markevis Davis) to the Charl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.1%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Chris Phillips for 5 yds to the Charl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7TD5 plays · 83 yds · 1:5080% → 84%
CLTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4118% → 17%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
17.2%
Arthur Hart punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9TD11 plays · 60 yds · 1:4783% → 87%
Q2 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
17.5%
STOCKSTILL, B. pass incomplete to SALTER, Tavonn, QB hurry by GEMMELL, Jeff, PENALTY CHA offside (DUNCAN, Zach) 5 yards to the MT45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+8
17.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 8 yds to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
16.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to CJ Windham, broken up by Quinton JordanSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
16.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Carlos Johnson) to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+21
17.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 21 yds to the Charl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
13.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Watkins for 6 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10MISSED FG11 plays · 56 yds · 4:2715% → 15%
Q2 12:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
15.0%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to R.J. Tyler for 12 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
15.4%
Benny LeMay run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (Darius Harris) to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+4
15.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Trent Bostick for 4 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+3
15.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 3 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11TD5 plays · 80 yds · 1:0986% → 92%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
13.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick Smith, broken up by Ben DeLucaSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
13.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Chandler Brewer) to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 15
OWN 37
0
13.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Juwan FoggieSimilar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+63
8.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 63 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 0:009% → 10%
MTSUDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 4:49
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
8.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick Smith, broken up by Robert CheatemSimilar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+18
8.3%
Matt Bonadies punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Nate Mullen at the CHARLOTTE 26 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Charl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
MTSUDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
CLTDrive 16TD9 plays · 76 yds · 2:558% → 15%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+5
8.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive offside (Jahmal Jones) to the Charl 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+14
8.2%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 14 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+52
9.0%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 52 yds to the MTnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
9.7%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Darius HarrisSimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
14.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Corbett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
11.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 4 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+13
11.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Shane Tucker for 13 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
11.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavonn Salter for 6 yds to the Charl 37Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 4
OPP 37
-7
11.3%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Anthony Butler for a loss of 7 yards to the Charl 44Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
11.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Robert CheatemSimilar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
12.5%
Matt Bonadies punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nate Mullen at the Charl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
MTSUDrive 19DOWNS6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
CLTDrive 20DOWNS6 plays · 44 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
11.5%
LEMAY, Benny rush for no gain to the CHA36 (PHILPOTS, Trae;LIGGINS, D.), PENALTY MT offside (PHILPOTS, Trae) 5 yards to the CHA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+37
12.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Trent Bostick for 37 yds to the CHARLOTTE 22 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+3
11.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Nate Mullen for 3 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5591% → 91%
CLTDrive 22INT8 plays · 11 yds · 1:1212% → 10%
Q4 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+15
10.9%
KLUGH, Hasaan pass incomplete to MULLEN, Nate, PENALTY MT roughing passer (BROOKS, Khalil) 15 yards to the MT38, 1ST DOWN CHA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+12
10.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 12 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-11
11.4%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Darryl Randolph for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 14
OPP 42
+26
9.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass intercepted Reed Blankenship return for 26 yds to the Charl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD9 plays · 44 yds · 4:5294% → 99%
CLTDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:17
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
1.4%
Arthur Hart punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 26TD7 plays · 91 yds · 0:561% → 4%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
0.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Mark Quattlebaum, broken up by Mike MinterSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+36
0.9%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 36 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
1.0%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to R.J. Tyler for 15 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+26
3.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Trent Bostick for 26 yds for a TD, (Kyle Corbett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27END OF GAME9 plays · 26 yds · 1:4498% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:47
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 63 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q3 12:05
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Corbett KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q2 12:23
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Watkins for 6 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
-3.2