2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreUNT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:35 · Jonathan Barnes 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:17: Boston Scott run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +6.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:39: J'Mar Smith run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +8.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:16: Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +13.4 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
- FG · Q4 13:35: Jonathan Barnes 35 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +9.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:04: Jeffery Wilson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +38.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 15:00UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snapGo for it44.4%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.5%average punt
- Q1 10:43LT 4th & 16 at LT 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snapGo for it55.4%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.7%average punt
- Q1 4:12LT 4th & 1 at UNT 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call52.9%71% to convertField goal52.0%−0.951% to makePunt51.6%−1.2average punt
- Q1 0:46LT 4th & 10 at UNT 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snapGo for it49.9%−0.429% to convertField goalTheir call50.3%56% to makePunt49.4%−0.9average punt
- Q1 0:46UNT 4th & 11 at UNT 24, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snapGo for it44.7%−1.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.8%average punt
- Q2 15:00LT 4th & 2 at UNT 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.6%57% to convertField goal53.8%−0.851% to makePunt53.2%−1.4average punt
- Q2 9:08LT 4th & 8 at midfield, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snapGo for it57.9%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.1%average punt
- Q2 3:05UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snapGo for it38.3%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.7%average punt
- Q3 15:00LT 4th & 18 at LT 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snapGo for it64.8%−4.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.9%average punt
- Q3 6:50LT 4th & 7 at UNT 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snapGo for it57.7%−1.135% to convertField goalTheir call58.8%75% to makePunt49.0%−9.8average punt
- Q3 6:50UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snapGo for it37.8%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.3%average punt
- Q4 13:35LT 4th & 2 at UNT 17, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snapGo for it70.0%56% to convertField goalTheir call68.1%−1.980% to makePunt55.3%−14.7average punt
- Q4 13:35UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 44, down 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 30.4% before the snapGo for it30.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.0%−1.6average punt
- Q4 11:10LT 4th & 9 at LT 23, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snapGo for it78.1%−2.730% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.7%average punt
- Q4 9:27UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 31, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt20.9%−4.1average punt
- Q4 2:39LT 4th & 12 at UNT 36, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snapGo for it40.6%−7.824% to convertField goalTheir call48.4%42% to makePunt37.8%−10.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 4:12UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.8%97% to makeGo for two46.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:17LT Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.8%97% to makeGo for two58.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:39LT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.9%97% to makeGo for two71.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:16UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.2%97% to makeGo for two41.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:04UNT Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.0%97% to makeGo for two46.9%−3.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNTDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 42 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
53.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 5 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
53.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 4 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+7
53.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 7 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-8
53.1%
Mason Fine sacked by Matthew Ydarraga for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 36 Mason Fine fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 36
+8
53.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 8 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
UNTDrive 3TD11 plays · 63 yds · 4:3247% → 52%
Q1 8:44
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+14
53.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffery Wilson for 14 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+1
52.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 1 yd to the LaTch 34Similar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
52.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 9 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
52.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 9 yds to the LaTch 10Similar
Q1 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
48.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4FG12 plays · 37 yds · 3:2650% → 52%
Q1 4:12
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+9
50.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 9 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
LTDrive 6TD7 plays · 52 yds · 2:4353% → 59%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+28
52.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 28 yds to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7INT11 plays · 49 yds · 0:0043% → 46%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
56.7%
Mason Fine sacked by Courtney Wallace and Dae'Von Washington for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 19Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+15
57.0%
FINE, Mason pass incomplete to GUYTON, Jalen, PENALTY LATECH pass interference (ROBERTSON, Amik) 15 yards to the NT34, 1ST DOWN NT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
54.0%
Mason Fine pass intercepted, touchback. Trey Spencer return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 9:08
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
58.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for no gain to the LaTch 49Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+1
57.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Boston Scott for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 8
50
0
56.5%
Brady Farlow punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 3:0442% → 41%
LTDrive 10TD12 plays · 80 yds · 2:2059% → 72%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
58.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Kam McKnight for 6 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+15
58.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 15 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
60.5%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete to VEAL, Teddy, PENALTY NT pass interference (MUHAMMAD, K.) 15 yards to the NT44, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
62.1%
SCOTT, Boston rush for loss of 2 yards to the NT22 (OZOUGWU, Joe;JOHNSON, Ti.), PENALTY NT face mask (JOHNSON, Ti.) 10 yards to the NT10, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11FG10 plays · 44 yds · 0:3930% → 35%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 6 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+25
68.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 25 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
67.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen Guyton, broken up by Amik RobertsonSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
67.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 6 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 28
-6
66.7%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Tillman Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 21 J'Mar Smith fumbled, recovered by LaTch Gewhite Stallworth , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 21
+2
65.5%
Brady Farlow punt for 34 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for 2 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13TD6 plays · 53 yds · 2:0135% → 51%
LTDrive 14FG12 plays · 55 yds · 4:2656% → 64%
Q3 11:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
56.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 8 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
57.0%
J'Mar Smith run for 6 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (E.J. Ejiya) to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+19
58.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 19 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 2
OPP 15
-5
59.3%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Michael Rodriguez) to the NoTex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q3 6:50
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+10
61.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 10 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+8
61.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 8 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
58.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael Lawrence, broken up by DaMarion KingSimilar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
61.1%
Blake Patterson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16FG13 plays · 62 yds · 5:0863% → 80%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
63.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 12 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
63.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Marlon Watts, broken up by Eric JenkinsSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+16
65.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 16 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+6
68.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 6 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
68.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 5 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
74.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 11 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
72.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 5 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
74.1%
Blake Patterson punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
83.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 4 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-10
84.1%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete, PENALTY LATECH holding (CARPENTER, S.) 10 yards to the LATECH16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 16
OWN 16
+7
83.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Boston Scott for 7 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD9 plays · 78 yds · 3:2320% → 65%
LTDrive 20MISSED FG12 plays · 37 yds · 3:2551% → 45%
UNTDrive 21END OF GAME8 plays · 28 yds · 2:0367% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:04
Jeffery Wilson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
-38.4
TD · Q3 11:16
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
-13.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-13