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UAB

UAB 30 at Southern Miss 12

USM
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUAB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:01 · Joel Dixon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+17.4Home team on offense+3.2Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:10: Parker Shaunfield 31 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +5.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:01: A.J. Erdely run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UAB win probability +13.6 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:43: A.J. Erdely pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 25 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +26.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:29: Nick Vogel 43 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +4.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:35: Kwadra Griggs pass intercepted for a TD Darious Williams return for 41 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 12UAB made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 3:20USM 4th & 7 at UAB 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−1.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:20UAB 4th & 5 at UAB 47, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00USM 4th & 4 at UAB 41, up 2
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    74.6%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:14UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 20, down 2
    Close callPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:10USM 4th & 3 at UAB 14, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.8%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:10UAB 4th & 8 at UAB 26, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:24USM 4th & 12 at UAB 48, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:01UAB 4th & 11 at UAB 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:14USM 4th & 11 at USM 34, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:03UAB 4th & 4 at USM 9, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.2%
    43% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−0.4
    89% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−7.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:01USM 4th & 3 at USM 29, down 1
    Close callPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:35UAB 4th & 16 at USM 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:35USM 4th & 5 at UAB 48, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00UAB 4th & 13 at UAB 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−5.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:39USM 4th & 14 at USM 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−5.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:43USM 4th & 3 at USM 23, down 8
    Close callPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:29UAB 4th & 2 at USM 26, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%−1.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−9.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:29USM 4th & 7 at midfield, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.9%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:08UAB 4th & 6 at USM 33, up 11
    Close callPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    93.1%−0.1
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:58USM 4th & 1 at USM 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:35USM 4th & 6 at USM 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 14:40USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:51UAB Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:01UAB Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:43UAB Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−1.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:35UAB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
2 plays · 84 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+84
78.6%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 84 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:4921% → 23%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
78.6%
A.J. Erdely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
78.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 7 yds to the UAB 28Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+7
78.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 7 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
78.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Donnie Lee for 24 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
78.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Kailon Carter for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+10
78.5%
Spencer Brown run for 10 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
78.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 2 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+1
78.5%
Donnie Lee run for 1 yd to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+18
78.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Donnie Lee for 18 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.0%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 7:3177% → 77%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
77.3%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
77.5%
Keon Howard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+4
77.5%
Keon Howard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
77.6%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
77.6%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+16
77.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 16 yds to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
77.7%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the UAB 36Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+15
77.7%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 15 yds to the UAB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
77.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 3 yds to the UAB 18Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-1
77.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Julian Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 19Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+8
77.7%
Keon Howard run for 8 yds to the UAB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
77.8%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Garrett MarinoSimilar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
77.8%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the UAB 8Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
77.7%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the UAB 8Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
76.5%
Parker Shaunfield 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
76.2%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 10 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
75.9%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+1
75.9%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 35Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+7
76.1%
A.J. Erdely run for 7 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
75.5%
Donnie Lee run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 39Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+8
76.1%
Spencer Brown run for 8 yds to the UAB 47Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
75.4%
A.J. Erdely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
76.0%
Joel Dixon punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:2076% → 76%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
76.1%
UAB Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
76.3%
Keon Howard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+12
75.1%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 12 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
75.8%
Keon Howard run for 14 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
76.5%
Allenzae Staggers run for 1 yd to the UAB 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+7
76.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 7 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-2
76.2%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
75.5%
Zac Everett punt for 40 yds, downed at the UAB 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:3726% → 25%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
74.5%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the UAB 8Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+5
74.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UAB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
74.3%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the UAB 15Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-5
74.4%
UAB Penalty, false start (Andre Wilson) to the UAB 10Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+10
74.5%
Spencer Brown run for 10 yds to the UAB 20Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 3
OWN 20
0
74.3%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre Wilson, broken up by Tarvarius MooreSimilar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
74.8%
Joel Dixon punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4876% → 71%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
75.8%
HOWARD, Keon sacked for loss of 19 yards to the USM45 (RUSH, A.), PENALTY UAB face mask (RUSH, A.) 15 yards to the UAB21, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
76.0%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
76.0%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the UAB 18Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+4
76.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 4 yds to the UAB 14Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+31
71.0%
Parker Shaunfield 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
75.0%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre Wilson, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
75.2%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Kailon Carter for 2 yds to the UAB 26Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
75.7%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Jonathan HadenSimilar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
76.2%
Joel Dixon punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:3970% → 70%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
70.4%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+3
70.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 3 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+21
69.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 21 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
72.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 48Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
71.8%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Tevin CrewsSimilar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 12
OPP 48
0
71.0%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Sederian Copeland SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
69.8%
Zac Everett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
76.8%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 5 yds to the UAB 17Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+1
76.8%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 18Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+8
77.4%
Spencer Brown run for 8 yds to the UAB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
76.5%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Paxton Schrimsher for a loss of 7 yards to the UAB 19Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 17
OWN 19
-5
77.0%
UAB Penalty, false start (Andre Wilson) to the UAB 14Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 22
OWN 14
+11
77.0%
Donnie Lee run for 11 yds to the UAB 25Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
77.4%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Jonathan HadenSimilar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
78.0%
Joel Dixon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
71.1%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 9 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-10
72.7%
HOWARD, Keon middle pass incomplete to JONES, Isaiah, PENALTY USM holding (DORBECK, Drake) 10 yards to the USM34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
70.8%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
69.8%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Stacy KeelySimilar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+5
69.2%
Zac Everett punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 25 , Andre Wilson returns for 5 yds to the UAB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:1923% → 24%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
76.9%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 60 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
72.2%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
72.2%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Donnie LeeSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+5
74.4%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Jonathan Haden for 5 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 4
OPP 9
-12
76.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the SoMis 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:5925% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.6%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre WilsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
74.8%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 18 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
72.9%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+12
72.1%
Spencer Brown run for 12 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
71.8%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Donnie LeeSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
71.8%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+8
72.1%
A.J. Erdely run for 8 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
70.7%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+15
70.7%
ERDELY, A.J. flag pass incomplete to UBOSI, X., PENALTY USM pass interference (MITCHELL, R.) 15 yards to the USM9, 1ST DOWN UAB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
73.5%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the SoMis 2Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 0
OPP 2
+1
72.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, substitution infraction (1 Yards) to the SoMis 1Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.0%
A.J. Erdely run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
65.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 7 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+1
67.4%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 2
OWN 30
-1
65.0%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+15
64.2%
Zac Everett punt for 46 yds , Andre Wilson returns for 15 yds to the UAB 44 UAB Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the UAB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15MISSED FG
13 plays · 35 yds · 5:2538% → 39%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
62.1%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the UAB 35Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-3
61.1%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Kailon Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 32Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+13
63.3%
A.J. Erdely run for 13 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
60.0%
Donnie Lee run for 4 yds to the UAB 49Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-1
59.4%
Donnie Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 48Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+9
60.4%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 9 yds to the SOUMISS 43 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
59.1%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Jonathan HadenSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
59.2%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+11
59.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 11 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
57.8%
Donnie Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
58.0%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Collin Lisa, broken up by Kelsey DouglasSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 11
OPP 30
-5
60.0%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Xavier Thigpen for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 16
OPP 35
+52
60.8%
Nick Vogel 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0062% → 63%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
62.1%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 12 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
65.4%
HOWARD, Keon rush scramble for 1 yard to the USM48 (WILLIAMS, Z.), PENALTY USM holding (WASHINGTON, J.) 10 yards to the USM37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+15
61.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 15 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
66.2%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
65.5%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
63.1%
Zac Everett punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:5141% → 41%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
58.6%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Jeremy Sangster for a loss of 7 yards to the UAB 8Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+20
59.9%
Spencer Brown run for 20 yds to the UAB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
57.8%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 4
OWN 34
-9
56.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the UAB 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
57.6%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre Wilson, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
59.0%
Joel Dixon punt for 43 yds, downed at the SoMis 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0059% → 55%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
59.0%
Allenzae Staggers run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 14
OWN 28
0
57.7%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 14
OWN 28
0
56.0%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 14:39
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
55.2%
Zac Everett punt for 53 yds, downed at the UAB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:5245% → 78%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
54.9%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+50
54.8%
Spencer Brown run for 50 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
48.5%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
48.5%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Xavier UbosiSimilar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+25
22.1%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 25 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 26%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
28.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
29.5%
Kwadra Griggs run for no gain to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+2
27.4%
Kwadra Griggs run for 2 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 3
OWN 23
+14
26.4%
Zac Everett punt for 35 yds , Andre Wilson returns for 14 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:2281% → 92%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
19.3%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+5
19.2%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
18.5%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
18.5%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
19.5%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+43
8.5%
Nick Vogel 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
12.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 8 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+12
13.9%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
14.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
14.2%
Kwadra Griggs run for 2 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+1
13.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 7
50
0
12.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Will DawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:2694% → 96%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
50
+4
6.2%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
6.2%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+7
5.6%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
5.3%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
5.2%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
3.5%
A.J. Erdely run for no gain to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 6
OPP 33
0
3.6%
Joel Dixon punt for 17 yds, downed at the SoMis 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24INT TD
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:233% → 1%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
3.1%
Kwadra Griggs run for 5 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
3.1%
Kwadra Griggs run for 4 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
3.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+7
2.8%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
3.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 4 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
3.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
3.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Craig KanyangararaSimilar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+41
0.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass intercepted for a TD Darious Williams return for 41 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 48 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Brontae HarrisSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
0.7%
Kwadra Griggs run for 7 yds to the SoMis 42 UAB Penalty, illegal participation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+41
0.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Tim Jones for 41 yds to the UAB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
0.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Darious WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:43
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 25 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)
-26.4
TD · Q3 11:01
A.J. Erdely run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-13.6
FG · Q2 8:10
Parker Shaunfield 31 yd FG GOOD
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com