Try the model
FIU

Florida International 41 at Marshall 30

MRSH
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreFIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:58 · Stone Wilson punt for 39 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for no gain to the Marsh 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense−6.2Pregame prior+25.6Score differential−2.8Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:55: Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 41 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +8.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:31: Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 19 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +16.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:11: Chase Litton pass intercepted for a TD Brad Muhammad return for 12 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +7.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:00: Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Chase Litton pass to Willie Johnson for Two-Point Conversion) — MRSH win probability +6.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:44: Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 8 yds for a TD, (Chase Litton pass to Willie Johnson for Two-Point Conversion) — MRSH win probability +7.7 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 5FIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:22MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:59MRSH 4th & 9 at FIU 27, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.3%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    77.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:58FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 36, up 14
    Close callPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MRSH 4th & 7 at FIU 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−0.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:21FIU 4th & 18 at FIU 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−2.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:55MRSH 4th & 10 at FIU 19, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.4%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    56.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 37, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:18MRSH 4th & 1 at FIU 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−2.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:23FIU 4th & 14 at MRSH 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 44, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:15FIU 4th & 6 at MRSH 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:28FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 43, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:26FIU 4th & 4 at MRSH 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 4FIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:22FIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:59FIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:37MRSH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:55FIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:31FIU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:11FIU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:27MRSH Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:00MRSH Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:44MRSH Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.0%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · -14 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
81.2%
Tony Pittman run for 6 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-6
81.2%
Chase Litton run for a loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 13 Chase Litton fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Bryce CanadySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:4919% → 20%
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
80.9%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Thomas OwensSimilar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
80.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 11 yds to the Marsh 2 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
80.9%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 1 yd to the Marsh 1Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.3%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 3 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
80.5%
Tyler King run for 2 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
80.4%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
80.4%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 36 yds, downed at the FlaIn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:5420% → 26%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
79.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 2 yds to the FlaIn 36Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
79.5%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+5
79.5%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive offside (Chris Jackson) to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+1
79.5%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
78.3%
Alex McGough pass complete to Pharoah McKever for 17 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
78.3%
Alex Gardner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 40Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+21
78.3%
Alex McGough pass complete to Pharoah McKever for 21 yds to the Marsh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
78.2%
Alex Gardner run for 5 yds to the Marsh 14Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+5
78.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 5 yds to the Marsh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
78.2%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the Marsh 7Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
73.8%
Alex Gardner run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
75.4%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+9
75.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 9 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
75.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 6 yds to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-4
75.5%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+16
75.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 16 yds to the FlaIn 28 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
75.7%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
75.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Marcel Williams, broken up by Bryce CanadySimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
75.5%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 9
OPP 27
0
75.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
70.0%
Alex Gardner run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
70.1%
Alex McGough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+10
70.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Darrius Scott for 10 yds to the FlaIn 36Similar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
70.1%
Stone Wilson punt for 39 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for no gain to the Marsh 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:3569% → 69%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.2%
Tyler King run for 2 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
69.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 16 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
70.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 16 yds to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
68.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyler KingSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
68.7%
Tyler King run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
68.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
68.5%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 34 yds, downed at the FlaIn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:4633% → 36%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+17
66.7%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 17 yds to the FlaIn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
66.6%
Alex McGough run for 9 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+15
66.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 15 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
65.9%
Alex McGough run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-2
66.0%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 11
OWN 44
-7
63.0%
Alex McGough sacked by Omari Cobb for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 18
OWN 37
0
64.1%
Stone Wilson punt for 30 yds, downed at the Marsh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:5164% → 69%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
63.7%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+19
63.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 19 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
65.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 5 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+8
65.4%
Keion Davis run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
66.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 3 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+15
66.0%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to BRADY, Tyre, PENALTY FIU pass interference (BROWN, Andrew) 15 yards to the FIU15, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
69.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 15 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4236% → 47%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.5%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
63.7%
Alex McGough run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
64.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 12 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
62.9%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 4 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
62.4%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 5 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
62.2%
Alex McGough run for 3 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
53.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 41 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:0054% → 56%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
54.4%
Tyler King run for 12 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
55.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 6 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+7
56.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 7 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
56.8%
Tyler King run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
56.7%
Chase Litton run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+23
56.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 8 yds to the FlaIn 34 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Bryce Canady) to the FlaIn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
57.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
57.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
56.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyler KingSimilar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 10
OPP 19
-11
56.1%
Jackson White run for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaIn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:4254% → 73%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
46.3%
Alex McGough run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+34
46.5%
Alex Gardner run for 34 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
43.4%
McGOUGH, Alex pass incomplete to OWENS, Thomas, PENALTY MAR pass interference (JACKSON, Chris) 15 yards to the MAR19, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
26.7%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 19 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13END OF HALF
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:1936% → 44%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
36.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Keion Davis for 14 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
35.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan Yurachek, broken up by Bryce CanadySimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
34.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 8 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
36.7%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
50
+8
44.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 8 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
27.6%
Alex Gardner run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-9
26.9%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 39 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive holding (Pharoah McKever) to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+8
28.0%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
28.1%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Austin MaloneySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
28.7%
Stone Wilson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0030% → 33%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
30.1%
Tyler King run for 6 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
31.6%
Tyler King run for 4 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
31.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 14 yds to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
32.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 7 yds to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+2
33.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 2 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
33.0%
Tyler King run for no gain to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-4
32.9%
Chase Litton run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaIn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.8%
Alex Gardner run for no gain to the FlaIn 36Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+21
15.9%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 21 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
15.3%
McGOUGH, Alex pass incomplete to OWENS, Thomas, QB hurry by KELLER, Blake, QB hurry by TYLER, Ty, PENALTY FIU holding (KRAUT, Jacob) 10 yards to the FIU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+8
15.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Pharoah McKever for 8 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+1
15.2%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the Marsh 44Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 11
OPP 44
-3
15.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Pharoah McKever for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 47Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
16.6%
Stone Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+12
9.2%
Chase Litton pass intercepted for a TD Brad Muhammad return for 12 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 1:4410% → 13%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
9.5%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+20
9.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 20 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
10.2%
Keion Davis run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
10.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+18
10.6%
Tyler King run for 18 yds to the FlaIn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
11.3%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
12.7%
Tyler King run for 26 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 4:2793% → 95%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
7.4%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-5
7.5%
PHILLIPS, S. rush for 6 yards to the FIU30 (HANCOCK, Chase), PENALTY FIU illegal motion (MALONEY, Austin) 5 yards to the FIU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+7
7.5%
Alex McGough run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+4
7.8%
Alex McGough run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
7.5%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
7.5%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+8
7.7%
Alex McGough pass complete to Darrius Scott for 8 yds to the FlaIn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
7.2%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-2
7.1%
Napoleon Maxwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
4.3%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Austin MaloneySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
4.8%
Stone Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20INT
8 plays · 52 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
6.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 1 yd to the Marsh 20Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+16
6.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Obi Obialo for 16 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
6.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyler King for 12 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
6.9%
Tyler King run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+20
7.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 20 yds to the FlaIn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
7.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
7.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Marcel Williams, broken up by Bryce CanadySimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+2
7.2%
Chase Litton pass intercepted Brad Muhammad return for 2 yds to the FlaIn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 4:2096% → 98%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
3.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 11 yds to the FlaIn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
3.6%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 36Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+11
3.5%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 11 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+36
3.4%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 36 yds to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
3.2%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 4 yds to the Marsh 13Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+3
3.2%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 3 yds to the Marsh 10Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
3.3%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 2 yds to the Marsh 8Similar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 1
OPP 8
-5
3.8%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 13Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
1.9%
Jose Borregales 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 1:152% → 10%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+59
2.3%
Keion Davis run for 59 yds to the FlaIn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
2.8%
Tyler King run for no gain to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
9.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Chase Litton pass to Willie Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 1:3294% → 96%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
6.3%
Alex Gardner run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 22Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+2
6.4%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+15
6.7%
MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (Juwon Young) to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
6.0%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+1
4.6%
Alex McGough run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+1
4.6%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
4.5%
Stone Wilson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 2:362% → 11%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
2.4%
Tyler King run for 4 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+17
2.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyler King for 17 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
2.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyler King for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 3
50
+5
2.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 5 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
2.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyler King for 3 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
2.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyler King for 6 yds to the FlaIn 36Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
2.8%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+24
3.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 24 yds to the FlaIn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
3.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
2.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan Yurachek, broken up by Treyvon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
10.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 8 yds for a TD, (Chase Litton pass to Willie Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 25FG
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1895% → 98%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
5.2%
Alex Gardner run for 5 yds to the Marsh 22Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
5.2%
Alex Gardner run for no gain to the Marsh 22Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+1
5.4%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the Marsh 21Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
2.4%
Jose Borregales 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
2.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
2.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+7
2.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down lat. to Monterio Hunt for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:31
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 19 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
-16.7
TD · Q2 4:55
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 41 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
-8.7
TD · Q4 2:44
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 8 yds for a TD, (Chase Litton pass to Willie Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com