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USM

Southern Miss 34 at Louisiana Tech 27

LT
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:58 · Zac Everett punt for 50 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remainingDefense timeouts
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 26Home team on offense+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score differential+0.0Time remaining+0.2Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:36: Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 23 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +6.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:32: Keon Howard pass intercepted for a TD Darryl Lewis return for 63 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — LT win probability +15.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 11:38: Jonathan Barnes 45 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +7.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:31: Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 22 yds for a TD, (Keon Howard pass to Jay'Shawn Washington for Two-Point Conversion) — USM win probability +53.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 25 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +19.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 9USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 8 at USM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:58LT 4th & 5 at USM 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:58USM 4th & 4 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:17LT 4th & 2 at LT 28, up 3
    Close callPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:53USM 4th & 9 at LT 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:18USM 4th & 2 at LT 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−0.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:36LT 4th & 7 at USM 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−0.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:41USM 4th & 6 at USM 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:16LT 4th & 10 at LT 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:32USM 4th & 10 at USM 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:08LT 4th & 10 at USM 39, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    68.8%
    36% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00LT 4th & 9 at LT 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:17USM 4th & 4 at LT 17, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.2%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−10.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:17LT 4th & 10 at LT 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:35USM 4th & 9 at LT 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−11.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00LT 4th & 4 at USM 43, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−3.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%−2.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:41USM 4th & 10 at USM 2, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−6.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:38LT 4th & 7 at USM 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−11.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:08USM 4th & 2 at USM 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%−1.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:23USM 4th & 6 at LT 32, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.1%−1.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:18LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:36USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:32LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:08LT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:31USM Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    13.4%−10.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
48.6%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 13 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
48.6%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+1
48.6%
Keon Howard pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 1 yd to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
48.6%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
48.6%
Zac Everett punt for 51 yds, downed at the LaTch 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2FG
10 plays · 86 yds · 2:5949% → 51%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
49.0%
Jarred Craft run for 8 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+19
49.1%
Jarred Craft run for 19 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
49.1%
Boston Scott run for 12 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
49.3%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+45
49.2%
Boston Scott run for 45 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
49.4%
J'Mar Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 3Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
49.4%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the SoMis 2Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
50.2%
Kam McKnight run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 5Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
50.7%
Jonathan Barnes 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
50.4%
Keon Howard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+7
50.4%
Keon Howard run for 7 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+4
50.4%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
50.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
50.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 11 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
50.0%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
50.1%
Keon Howard run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 4
50
0
49.9%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 4
50
0
50.2%
Zac Everett punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
51.5%
Jaqwis Dancy run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 19Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+10
51.3%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 10 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+4
51.0%
Brady Farlow punt for 48 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 4 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-1
51.4%
J'Mar Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 28 J'Mar Smith fumbled, recovered by LaTch Jaqwis DancySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:4648% → 50%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
52.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 6 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+4
51.7%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
51.8%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+8
51.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 8 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
51.2%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+24
51.7%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 24 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
50.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 30Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+2
50.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Quez Watkins for 2 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
51.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
50.4%
Parker Shaunfield 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:3552% → 60%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
52.2%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete, PENALTY USM offside defense (LANDRY, Delmond) 5 yards to the LATECH40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 5
OWN 40
-1
53.3%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 39Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+40
53.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 40 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
54.4%
J'Mar Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+15
59.7%
Boston Scott run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:4242% → 51%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
57.7%
Keon Howard pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 13 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
57.3%
Keon Howard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
56.3%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
56.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Tim Jones for 18 yds to the LATECH 35 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
55.2%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Dae'Von WashingtonSimilar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
55.3%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 2
OPP 27
0
56.1%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+2
56.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Julian Allen for 2 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
55.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
48.7%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 23 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
53.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the LaTch 40Similar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+5
55.0%
CRAFT, Jarred rush for loss of 1 yard to the LATECH39 (THIGPEN, Xavier), PENALTY USM offside defense 5 yards to the LATECH45, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
54.9%
Boston Scott run for 14 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
55.4%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
55.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
55.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
53.9%
Davan Dyer punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
51.7%
Tez Parks run for 4 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+8
51.6%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
51.4%
Tez Parks run for 7 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-1
50.3%
Keon Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
51.4%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
50.3%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
50.0%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
49.7%
Keon Howard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-5
50.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
51.6%
Zac Everett punt for 50 yds, downed at the LaTch 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
54.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
54.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Kam McKnight, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
53.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
52.4%
Brady Farlow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the LaTch 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:2052% → 37%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
48.0%
Allenzae Staggers run for no gain to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
48.2%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the LaTch 46Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+63
63.4%
Keon Howard pass intercepted for a TD Darryl Lewis return for 63 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
64.9%
Tez Parks run for no gain to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
65.2%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
66.1%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 10
OWN 16
+5
66.7%
Zac Everett punt for 39 yds , Teddy Veal returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13FUMBLE
10 plays · 10 yds · 2:2468% → 67%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
50
+1
67.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marlon Watts for 1 yd to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+10
68.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marlon Watts for 10 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
68.3%
Boston Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+2
67.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 2 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
67.9%
J'Mar Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 10
OPP 39
-3
66.5%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Paxton Schrimsher for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 40 J'Mar Smith fumbled, recovered by SoMis Darian Yancey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.0%
Teddy Veal run for 1 yd to the LaTch 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
65.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Kam McKnightSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
64.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
63.7%
Brady Farlow punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:3638% → 43%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
62.4%
Isaiah Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 49Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+9
64.0%
Keon Howard run for 9 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+19
62.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Tez Parks for 19 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
60.5%
PARKS, Tez rush for 2 yards to the LATECH21 (GARNER, K.;SCOTT, Collin), PENALTY LATECH illegal participation 5 yards to the LATECH18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 5
OPP 18
0
60.5%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+1
60.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 1 yd to the LaTch 17Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
62.1%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Aaron RobersonSimilar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
57.3%
Parker Shaunfield 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.8%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
61.0%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
60.0%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
60.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Rhashid BonnetteSimilar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
60.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
58.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
58.0%
Brady Farlow punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17FG
20 plays · 73 yds · 8:4538% → 43%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
62.2%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
62.5%
Keon Howard run for 7 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 25
-5
62.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Drake Dorbeck) to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+5
63.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, offside defense (Deldrick Canty) to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+6
62.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 6 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
61.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+7
59.6%
Tez Parks run for 7 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
59.6%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Aaron RobersonSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
60.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 3
50
+21
58.5%
Tez Parks run for 21 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
56.4%
Keon Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 30Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+7
56.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 7 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+5
57.9%
Tez Parks run for 5 yds to the LaTch 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
56.4%
Tez Parks run for 6 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
56.4%
Tez Parks run for no gain to the LaTch 12Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+4
57.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Tez Parks for 4 yds to the LaTch 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
56.4%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 9Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
56.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for no gain to the LaTch 9Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
58.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 0:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
57.5%
Parker Shaunfield 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:3561% → 62%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.5%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 0
0
60.2%
SMITH, J'Mar pass complete to WATTS, Marlon for 9 yards to the LATECH37, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USM offside defense off-setting, PENALTY LATECH holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+23
60.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marlon Watts for 23 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
65.0%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+4
65.1%
J'Mar Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
64.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
61.9%
Brady Farlow punt for 41 yds, downed at the SoMis 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 36%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
60.2%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
60.6%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Tez ParksSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 10
OWN 2
0
62.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Aaron RobersonSimilar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 10
OWN 2
+8
63.7%
Zac Everett punt for 37 yds , Teddy Veal returns for 8 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3367% → 70%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
67.0%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Michael Rodriguez) to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 15
OPP 36
0
64.2%
Teddy Veal run for no gain to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 15
OPP 36
0
63.6%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Marlon WattsSimilar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 15
OPP 36
+8
62.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jarred Craft for 8 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
69.7%
Jonathan Barnes 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21FUMBLE
11 plays · 73 yds · 0:0034% → 40%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.0%
Tez Parks run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
66.1%
Keon Howard pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 3 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
66.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Quez Watkins for 10 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
63.7%
Keon Howard pass complete to Tez Parks for 5 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
61.4%
Keon Howard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+10
61.9%
Keon Howard run for 10 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+40
60.6%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 40 yds to the LaTch 5 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
58.2%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the LaTch 3Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
58.2%
Keon Howard run for 2 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+3
60.1%
Tez Parks run for no gain to the LaTch 5 Tez Parks fumbled, forced by Jordan Bradford, recovered by LaTch Secdrick Cooper , return for 3 yds to the LaTch 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 96 yds · 7:3068% → 95%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
68.3%
Boston Scott run for 4 yds to the LaTch 9Similar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+82
68.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marlon Watts for 82 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
74.2%
Boston Scott run for 6 yds to the SoMis 2Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 6
OWN 4
+6
68.1%
Boston Scott run for 6 yds to the LaTch 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.8%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23FG
15 plays · 43 yds · 2:456% → 7%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
93.9%
Tez Parks run for 12 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.1%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Trey SpencerSimilar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
93.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to Tez Parks for 3 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+5
93.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+7
93.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 7 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.2%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
92.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 8 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
91.9%
Allenzae Staggers run for 4 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
92.2%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
92.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Tim Jones for 6 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 4
OPP 30
-2
91.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Tez Parks for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 32Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+49
92.6%
Parker Shaunfield 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 0:527% → 62%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
93.0%
Tez Parks run for 11 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+30
92.2%
Keon Howard run for 15 yds to the LATECH 37 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Jaylon Ferguson) to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
38.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 22 yds for a TD, (Keon Howard pass to Jay'Shawn Washington for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25MISSED FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:3159% → 63%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
59.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Rhashid BonnetteSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
57.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jarred Craft for 7 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+5
57.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marlon Watts for 5 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
59.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 12 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+64
63.1%
Jonathan Barnes 64 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Boston Scott run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+54
64.5%
J'Mar Smith pass intercepted Tarvarius Moore return for 54 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+10
40.5%
Keon Howard pass intercepted Amik Robertson return for 10 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
40.5%
Tez Parks run for 3 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
20.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 25 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 30DOWNS
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0028% → 15%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
28.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 4 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+8
28.1%
Jarred Craft run for 8 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
28.1%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 16
-11
22.7%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Draper Riley and Paxton Schrimsher for a loss of 11 yards to the SoMis 27Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 24
OPP 27
0
18.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 24
OPP 27
0
15.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:31
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 22 yds for a TD, (Keon Howard pass to Jay'Shawn Washington for Two-Point Conversion)
-53.7
TD · OT 0:00
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 25 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-19.7
TD · Q2 2:32
Keon Howard pass intercepted for a TD Darryl Lewis return for 63 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
+15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com