Try the model
UNT

North Texas 31 at Florida Atlantic 69

FAU
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · FAU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:45 · Blake Patterson punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Home team on offense+4.8Score differential+1.8Pregame prior+14.7Blowout margin+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:41: Devin Singletary run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +3.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:16: Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 69 yds for a TD NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +5.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:45: Mason Fine pass complete to O'Keeron Rutherford for 9 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +2.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:23: Jason Driskel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +7.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:55: Devin Singletary run for 22 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +5.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:53UNT 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:41FAU 4th & 1 at UNT 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.9%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    63.3%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:45FAU 4th & 11 at UNT 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:45UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UNT 4th & 3 at FAU 32, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−1.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:23FAU 4th & 1 at UNT 1, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    77.1%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−9.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:23UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:55UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 28, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:57FAU 4th & 2 at UNT 39, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:37UNT 4th & 10 at FAU 27, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:00UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 37, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 18, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:41UNT 4th & 8 at FAU 27, down 52
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:25FAU 4th & 7 at midfield, up 44
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:53FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:41FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:16FAU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:45UNT Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:23FAU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:55FAU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:32FAU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:17UNT Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:00FAU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:00FAU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 12:41FAU Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:25UNT Touchdown, down 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 0:30UNT Touchdown, down 38 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0768% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
68.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 27 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
68.1%
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+9
68.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 9 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
68.1%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
68.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 2 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+16
68.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 16 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
68.1%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+6
68.1%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+6
68.1%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.1%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
68.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for 10 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
68.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Caleb Chumley for 6 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
68.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
68.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 1
50
-1
68.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line Jeffery Wilson fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Ernest Bagner , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:5370% → 73%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
50
+8
69.8%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 8 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+3
69.8%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 3 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
69.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 17 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
69.9%
Jason Driskel run for 9 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+1
69.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 1 yd to the NoTex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
69.9%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Devin SingletarySimilar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
69.9%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+5
69.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 5 yds to the NoTex 3Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
73.1%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 6 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
72.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to O'Keeron Rutherford for 7 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
72.3%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Chris Tooley return for no gain to the FlAtl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:0174% → 76%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
73.7%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+33
73.7%
Jason Driskel run for 33 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
74.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 4 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+6
74.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 6 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
74.3%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kamrin SolomonSimilar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
74.3%
D'Anfernee McGriff run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
74.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to DeAndre McNealSimilar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
76.1%
Greg Joseph 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
75.7%
Jeffery Wilson run for 12 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
75.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-5
75.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (T.J. Henson) to the NoTex 40Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
75.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
75.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen Guyton, broken up by Herb MillerSimilar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
75.8%
Blake Patterson punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 83 yds · 0:3778% → 83%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
77.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 14 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
83.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 69 yds for a TD NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:3118% → 21%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.2%
FINE, Mason pass incomplete to SMITH, Kelvin, PENALTY FAU pass interference (SMITH, Rashad) 4 yards to the NT29, 1ST DOWN NT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
81.9%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
81.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 7 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
-4
82.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+5
82.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 5 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
82.7%
Jeffery Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+8
82.5%
Nic Smith run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
82.4%
Mason Fine run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
82.3%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
82.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to O'Keeron RutherfordSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+7
82.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 7 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+12
82.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 12 yds to the FlAtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
81.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffery Wilson for 11 yds to the FlAtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
78.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to O'Keeron Rutherford for 9 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD
17 plays · 85 yds · 4:2282% → 90%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
82.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 11 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
82.1%
Jason Driskel run for 25 yds to the FLAATLANTC 49 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
82.6%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
82.5%
Devin Singletary run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-10
82.3%
SINGLETARY, D rush for 4 yards to the NT47 (SANDERS, Makyle), PENALTY FAU holding (BOWENS, Dustin) 10 yards to the FAU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+8
82.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey III for 4 yds Henry Bussey III fumbled, forced by Kishawn McClain, recovered by FlAtl Jason Driskel for a 1ST down , return for 8 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
82.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 2 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+7
82.7%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 7 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+16
82.3%
HOWELL, Greg rush for 1 yard to the NT38 (PRESTON, Ashton;YOUNG, Roderick), PENALTY NT face mask (HAMILTON, L.) 16 yards to the NT23, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
82.7%
Devin Singletary run for 10 yds to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
82.7%
DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete to WOODS, Kalib, QB hurry by HAMILTON, L., PENALTY NT holding (MCCLAIN, K.) 7 yards to the NT6, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 0
OPP 6
-10
83.1%
DRISKEL, Jason pass complete to WRIGHT, Willie for 1 yard to the NT5, out-of-bounds, PENALTY FAU holding (WALTON, Brandon) 10 yards to the NT16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 0
OPP 16
+4
82.9%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the NoTex 12Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
82.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 10 yds to the NoTex 2Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
82.4%
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd to the NoTex 1Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.6%
Jason Driskel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10INT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.4%
Jeffery Wilson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
88.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
88.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (T.J. Henson) to the NoTex 27Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
88.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffery Wilson for 6 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
88.1%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Shelton Lewis return for no gain to the NoTex 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:3091% → 97%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
91.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 7 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+4
91.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 4 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
91.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 5 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+22
97.3%
Devin Singletary run for 22 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
96.6%
Mason Fine sacked by Leighton McCarthy for a loss of 9 yards to the NoTex 15 Mason Fine fumbled, recovered by NoTex Jordan Murray , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+7
96.6%
Mason Fine run for 7 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+6
96.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 6 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.6%
Blake Patterson punt for 55 yds, downed at the FlAtl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13FG
15 plays · 77 yds · 1:5798% → 98%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
97.7%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+6
97.5%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.7%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to John Franklin IIISimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+21
97.7%
Devin Singletary run for 21 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.8%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to DeAndre McNeal, broken up by Nate BrooksSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
97.8%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to DeAndre McNealSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+8
97.8%
Devin Singletary run for 8 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+7
97.4%
Devin Singletary run for 7 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
98.4%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to D'Anfernee McGriffSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
98.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 6 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+20
98.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to John Franklin III for 20 yds to the NoTex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.3%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
98.4%
Greg Joseph 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 4:232% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by Chris TooleySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.1%
Mason Fine run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+16
98.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffery Wilson for 16 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
98.0%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+11
98.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 11 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
98.0%
Mason Fine run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
98.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+5
97.8%
Nic Smith run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
97.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
97.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for no gain to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
98.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Nate BrooksSimilar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
98.5%
Trevor Moore 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:0599% → 99%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
99.0%
Devin Singletary run for 14 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 4 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
99.1%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+49
99.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Devin Singletary for 45 yds to the FLAATLANTC 8 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Kishawn McClain) to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
98.8%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Gregory Howell Jr.) to the NoTex 9Similar
Q3 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.1%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 4 yds to the NoTex 5Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 5 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:151% → 1%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 13 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
99.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 20 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
99.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 5 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+3
99.0%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+3
99.0%
Evan Johnson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+25
99.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 25 yds to the FlAtl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.8%
Jeffery Wilson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:17100% → 100%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
99.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 15 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.6%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+6
99.5%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+32
99.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 32 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.6%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 3 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+19
99.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 19 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.7%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+19
99.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 19 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to O'Keeron RutherfordSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+44
99.7%
Blake Patterson punt for 44 yds , Jalen Young returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.7%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+1
99.8%
Daniel Parr run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlAtl 18 Daniel Parr fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Daniel Parr , return for 1 yd to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+82
99.8%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 82 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
99.9%
Evan Johnson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Evan Johnson for no gain to the NoTex 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Blake Patterson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jalen Young at the FlAtl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:58100% → 100%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
99.8%
Tyrek Tisdale run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.9%
John Franklin III run for 55 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:160% → 0%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 17 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 3 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+9
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 9 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+16
99.9%
Andrew Tucker run for 16 yds to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Andrew Tucker run for no gain to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
Evan Johnson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+15
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Evan Johnson for 15 yds to the FlAtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 4 yds to the FlAtl 8Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Evan Johnson 8 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)Similar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
99.9%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Tyrek Tisdale run for no gain to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+10
99.9%
John Franklin III run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
99.9%
Gerald Hearns run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Gerald Hearns run for no gain to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
John Franklin III run for 4 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-1
99.9%
Tyrek Tisdale run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 7
50
+3
99.9%
Tyrek Tisdale run for 3 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:220% → 0%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
100.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to O'Keeron Rutherford for 7 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Evan Johnson run for no gain to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+12
100.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 12 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
100.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 10 yds to the FlAtl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
100.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Andrew Tucker for 6 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
100.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+16
100.0%
Mason Fine run for 16 yds to the FlAtl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
100.0%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Nic Smith 1 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 25Uncategorized
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
100.0%
Gerald Hearns run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:23
Jason Driskel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q2 3:55
Devin Singletary run for 22 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q1 1:16
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 69 yds for a TD NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Greg Joseph KICK)
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com