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UTEP

UTEP 0 at Southern Miss 24

USM
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUTEP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:49 · Ryan Metz sacked by Jeremy Sangster for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+30.9Home team on offense+2.8Score differential+1.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:43: Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Terry Juniel, broken up by Curtis Mikell — UTEP win probability +1.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  2. INT · Q2 1:02: Keon Howard pass intercepted Kahani Smith return for no gain to the UTEP 2 — USM win probability +2.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:41: Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +4.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:58: Ito Smith run for 11 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST down — USM win probability +2.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:39: Ito Smith run for 20 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UTEP made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:08UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:20UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:25UTEP 4th & 5 at USM 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:18USM 4th & 4 at USM 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:49UTEP 4th & 8 at USM 28, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:40USM 4th & 5 at UTEP 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:59UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:57USM 4th & 9 at USM 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:51USM 4th & 16 at USM 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:40UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:28USM 4th & 14 at UTEP 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:31UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:39UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:08USM 4th & 9 at UTEP 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:55UTEP 4th & 5 at USM 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:26USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:41USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:39USM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1INT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
94.1%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+3
94.1%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+6
94.1%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
94.1%
Keon Howard run for 8 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+17
94.1%
Ito Smith run for 17 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
94.1%
SMITH, Ito rush up middle for 3 yards to the UTEP38, PENALTY USM holding (FARRIOR, Devin) 10 yards to the USM49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 49
-2
94.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 47
0
94.1%
Keon Howard run for no gain to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 47
0
94.1%
Keon Howard pass intercepted Devin Cockrell return for no gain to the UTEP 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
93.2%
Kevin Dove run for no gain to the UTEP 17Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
93.2%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
93.2%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
93.3%
Alan Luna punt for 52 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for no gain to the SoMis 17 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Jaylond Adams) to the SoMis 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:3893% → 93%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
92.9%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 21Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
92.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 16Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+23
92.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 23 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
93.0%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+52
93.3%
Jaylond Adams 52 Yd pass from Keon Howard (Parker Shaunfield Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
93.1%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-5
93.2%
UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 11Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 15
OWN 11
0
93.2%
Kevin Dove run for no gain to the UTEP 11Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 15
OWN 11
+28
93.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Erik Brown for 28 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
93.0%
Kevin Dove run for 3 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
93.0%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Kevin Dove for 2 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
93.0%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to David LuceroSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
93.1%
Alan Luna punt for 35 yds, downed at the SoMis 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5FUMBLE
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:0893% → 92%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
92.6%
Keon Howard run for 8 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 2
OWN 29
-14
92.8%
HOWARD, Keon play action pass incomplete to ROBERTSON, K. (NEEDHAM, Nik), PENALTY USM pass interference (ROBERTSON, K.) 14 yards to the USM15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 16
OWN 15
-1
92.6%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 14Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 17
OWN 14
-5
92.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Keon Howard) to the SoMis 9Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 22
OWN 9
+26
92.5%
Tez Parks run for 26 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
92.7%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
92.7%
Tez Parks run for 9 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
92.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+8
92.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Quez Watkins for 8 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
92.9%
Tez Parks run for 4 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
92.9%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Nik NeedhamSimilar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+22
92.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Tez Parks for 22 yds to the UTEP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
92.9%
Tez Parks run for 3 yds to the UTEP 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+4
92.1%
Keon Howard run for 4 yds to the UTEP 9 Keon Howard fumbled, forced by Alvin Jones, recovered by UTEP Sky LoganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6PUNT
14 plays · 50 yds · 1:269% → 9%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
91.5%
Ronald Awatt run for 5 yds to the UTEP 14Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+2
91.5%
Ronald Awatt run for 2 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+9
91.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Tyler Batson for 9 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.0%
Kevin Dove run for 1 yd to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
91.1%
Zack Greenlee run for 8 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
90.8%
Zack Greenlee run for 3 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
90.9%
Kevin Dove run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 36Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+18
91.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Terry Juniel for 18 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
90.4%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Erik Brown for 6 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-2
90.3%
Ronald Awatt run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+1
90.5%
Zack Greenlee run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
90.7%
Alan Luna punt for 36 yds, downed at the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
89.9%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+1
89.9%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 6Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+5
89.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 5 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 4
OWN 11
0
89.5%
Zac Everett punt for 22 yds , Terry Juniel returns for no gain to the SoMis 30 Terry Juniel fumbled, recovered by UTEP Dylan ParseeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8DOWNS
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:5412% → 11%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
87.9%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Terry Juniel, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
87.9%
Kevin Dove run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+8
88.9%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Terry Juniel for 8 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 3
OPP 23
-5
88.4%
UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 8
OPP 28
-9
88.7%
Ryan Metz sacked by Jeremy Sangster for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
89.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 4 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+16
90.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 16 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
90.4%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the UTEP 43Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
90.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Mike SotaSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
90.0%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 10
OPP 43
+5
89.3%
EVERETT, Zac punt 43 yards to the UTEP0, touchback, PENALTY UTEP roughing the kicker 5 yards to the UTEP38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
89.7%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Justin RogersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
88.1%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to David LuceroSimilar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
88.2%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Terry Juniel for 3 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
88.4%
Ryan Metz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
89.0%
Alan Luna punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
88.7%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 17Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
88.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 1 yd to the SoMis 18Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
88.1%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
87.8%
Zac Everett punt for 49 yds , Terry Juniel returns for no gain to the UTEP 30 Terry Juniel fumbled, recovered by SoMis Justin Abston , return for 3 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
89.8%
Keon Howard pass intercepted Kahani Smith return for no gain to the UTEP 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
89.0%
Kevin Dove run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 2 Kevin Dove fumbled, forced by LaDarius Harris, recovered by SoMis Kelsey DouglasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.8%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.6%
Joshua Fields run for 7 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.1%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Terry Juniel for 8 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-4
92.5%
Joshua Fields run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
93.0%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 15 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
92.6%
Ryan Metz pass intercepted Cornell Armstrong return for no gain to the SoMis 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
93.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 1 yd to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
93.7%
Tez Parks run for 3 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-10
93.5%
HOWARD, Keon post pass complete to JONES, Isaiah for 51 yards to the UTEP2 (COCKRELL,Devin), PENALTY USM holding (HARRIS, Jerry) 10 yards to the USM37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 16
OWN 37
0
93.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Justin Rogers SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 16
OWN 37
-3
92.8%
Zac Everett punt for 38 yds , Terry Juniel returns for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
93.1%
Joshua Fields run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+9
93.2%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Terry Juniel for 9 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-4
92.9%
Ryan Metz pass complete to David Lucero for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 25Similar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
93.4%
Alan Luna punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
94.0%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
94.1%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+2
93.8%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
50
+15
94.1%
HOWARD, Keon deep pass incomplete to JONES, Isaiah, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (BEVERLY, Kalon) 15 yards to the UTEP35, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
94.1%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the UTEP 35Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
94.0%
Keon Howard pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 4 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-15
93.9%
HOWARD, Keon rush quarterback draw for 26 yards to the UTEP5 (SMITH, Kahani), PENALTY USM tripping (DORBECK, Drake) 15 yards to the UTEP46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 21
OPP 46
+7
93.6%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 7 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
93.2%
Zac Everett punt for 33 yds, downed at the UTEP 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
93.2%
Joshua Fields run for 5 yds to the UTEP 11Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+2
93.0%
Joshua Fields run for 2 yds to the UTEP 13Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+24
93.1%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 24 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
92.4%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 1 yd to the UTEP 38Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
92.4%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Warren RedixSimilar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+3
92.6%
Ryan Metz pass complete to David Lucero for 3 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+5
92.7%
Alan Luna punt for 44 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 5 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:1995% → 99%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
95.3%
Ito Smith run for 11 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
95.4%
Jaylond Adams run for 6 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+8
95.5%
Keon Howard run for 8 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
96.0%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
50
0
96.0%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Jaylond Adams, broken up by Kalon BeverlySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
50
+7
95.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 7 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
96.0%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
95.9%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+13
95.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 13 yds Korey Robertson fumbled, forced by Kalon Beverly, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
96.0%
SMITH, Ito rush left for 3 yards to the UTEP28 (BROWN, Jerrell), PENALTY USM holding (HARRIS, Jerry) 10 yards to the UTEP41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+3
96.0%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 3 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 38
+10
95.9%
Allenzae Staggers run for 10 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+8
95.9%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the UTEP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.2%
Ito Smith run for 20 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Erik Brown, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Kavika Johnson, broken up by Trae CollinsSimilar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Sterling NapierSimilar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.1%
Alan Luna punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 5 , Allenzae Staggers returns for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 20 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (Cornell Armstrong) to the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23FG
12 plays · 74 yds · 7:0099% → 100%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
99.3%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 4
OWN 11
0
99.4%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 11Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+5
99.4%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
99.4%
Ito Smith run for 11 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
99.4%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+4
99.3%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+52
99.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 52 yds to the UTEP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
99.4%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 23Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+9
99.4%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the UTEP 14Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 2
OPP 14
-2
99.4%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 16Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 4
OPP 16
-5
99.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Jacques Turner) to the UTEP 21Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+38
99.7%
Parker Shaunfield 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
99.3%
Joshua Fields run for 5 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
99.3%
Mark Torrez run for no gain to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
99.3%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Kalon Beverly, broken up by T.J. McGinnisSimilar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 5
OPP 36
-6
99.4%
Mark Torrez sacked by Derrick Dixon for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 14
OWN 38
-3
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:41
Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q4 10:39
Ito Smith run for 20 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+3.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:58
Ito Smith run for 11 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST down
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com