Try the model
UTSA

UTSA 26 at North Texas 29

UNT
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · DATCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Yannis Routsas punt for 56 yds, downed at the NoTex 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior−7.0Home team on offense−2.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score differential−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:35: Mason Fine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +6.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:32: Jalen Guyton 77 Yd pass from Mason Fine ( PAT failed) — UNT win probability +5.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:47: Jalen Guyton 32 Yd pass from Mason Fine ( PAT failed) — UNT win probability +26.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:29: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 46 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UTSA win probability +37.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:10: Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +64.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 7:35UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:34UNT 4th & 6 at UTSA 6, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−3.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:17UTSA 4th & 4 at UNT 25, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−4.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:17UNT 4th & 14 at midfield, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:23UTSA 4th & 2 at UNT 35, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.7%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    52.9%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00UTSA 4th & 10 at UNT 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00UTSA 4th & 15 at UTSA 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:23UTSA 4th & 5 at UNT 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−9.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:23UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:58UTSA 4th & 1 at UNT 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.0%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:58UTSA 4th & 13 at UNT 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%−1.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:47UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 21, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−5.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:05UNT 4th & 4 at UTSA 47, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:33UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.5%−8.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:17UTSA 4th & 3 at UNT 38, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−2.0
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:35UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:32UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:38UTSA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:00UTSA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:47UNT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:29UTSA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.3 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.7%−1.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:10UNT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
18 plays · 88 yds · 7:2536% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
36.3%
Jeffery Wilson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
36.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen Guyton, broken up by Devron DavisSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+6
36.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 6 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
36.3%
Jeffery Wilson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
36.3%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+15
36.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 15 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
36.3%
Mason Fine run for 8 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+9
36.3%
Jalen Guyton run for 9 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
36.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
36.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+21
36.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 21 yds to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
36.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
36.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 7 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+11
36.3%
Mason Fine run for 11 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.3%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 1 Mason Fine fumbled, recovered by NoTex Mason Fine , return for 1 yd to the TexSA 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
36.3%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 2Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.4%
Mason Fine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
41.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
41.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 15 yds to the TexSA 36 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Wright) to the TexSA 21Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
41.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete, broken up by Kemon HallSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
42.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Eric JenkinsSimilar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
42.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 61 yds, downed at the NoTex 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
2 plays · 82 yds · 0:4343% → 48%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
43.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+77
48.3%
Jalen Guyton 77 Yd pass from Mason Fine ( PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:5455% → 58%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
45.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 8 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+41
41.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Isaiah Clay for 41 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:0444% → 47%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
43.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
43.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 3 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+29
43.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 29 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-9
44.6%
Mason Fine sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 19
OPP 43
+35
44.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for 35 yds to the TexSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
44.6%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSA 6Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
44.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q1 4:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
44.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by Carl Austin IIISimilar
Q1 0:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
47.0%
Trevor Moore 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:1752% → 54%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
48.0%
Greg Campbell Jr. run for 9 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
47.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 11 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
47.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 6 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+18
47.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (LaDarius Hamilton) to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
46.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
46.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 5 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+1
47.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
46.3%
Jared Sackett 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.8%
Jeffery Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
48.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
49.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 18 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
50.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-17
50.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 27
OWN 37
+13
48.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 14
50
0
47.6%
Blake Patterson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brady Jones at the TexSA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8FUMBLE RETURN TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 7:0251% → 59%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
49.0%
Isaiah Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 12Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+10
49.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Ashton Preston) to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
48.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 10 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
48.3%
Isaiah Clay run for 6 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+8
47.0%
Isaiah Clay run for 8 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
47.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 26 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
45.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-1
45.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+14
46.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 14 yds to the NoTex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
45.4%
Isaiah Clay run for 5 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 5
OPP 7
-1
45.4%
Isaiah Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
41.2%
Liam Beard 0 Yd Fumble Return (Jared Sackett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -21 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.9%
Mason Fine sacked by Marcus Davenport and Jarrod Carter-McLin for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-12
41.6%
Mason Fine sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 12 yards to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 27
OWN 8
-4
40.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Murray) to the NoTex 4Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 31
OWN 4
+1
40.7%
Blake Patterson punt for 51 yds , Brady Jones returns for 1 yd to the TexSA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:5561% → 58%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
39.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 11 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
38.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Jalen RhodesSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
38.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+8
39.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 8 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+6
40.8%
Isaiah Clay run for 6 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
37.8%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
37.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr., broken up by Eric JenkinsSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
39.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr.Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
41.8%
Jared Sackett 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0059% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
41.2%
Greg Campbell Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSA 32 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive holding (Halen Steward) to the TexSA 22Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 18
OWN 22
+4
41.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
42.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Shaq WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 26
-1
43.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 25Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
44.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 56 yds, downed at the NoTex 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
44.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 18Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 11
OWN 18
-1
43.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 17Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 12
OWN 17
0
42.3%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Nate Gaines return for no gain to the NoTex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:1360% → 62%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
39.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+3
40.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 3 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+21
40.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 21 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
38.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
38.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
39.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
38.4%
Jared Sackett 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
38.5%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
40.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
42.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen Guyton, broken up by Baylen BakerSimilar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+11
39.4%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 9 yards to the NoTex 34 Mason Fine fumbled, forced by Marcus Davenport, recovered by NoTex Mason Fine , return for 11 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
38.9%
Blake Patterson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brady Jones at the TexSA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 2:4964% → 64%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
36.2%
Isaiah Clay run for 10 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
34.7%
Dalton Sturm sacked by E.J. Ejiya and Andy Flusche for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+2
37.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+13
37.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 13 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+9
34.3%
Isaiah Clay run for 9 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
31.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
31.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
32.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 8
OPP 38
-5
34.2%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Josh Dunlop) to the NoTex 43Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
36.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:2538% → 69%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
37.9%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
37.7%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+8
36.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
38.6%
Jalen Guyton run for 1 yd to the NoTex 31Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
38.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 3 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+10
37.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 10 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
41.3%
Jaelon Darden run for 1 yd to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+13
41.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for 13 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
42.9%
Nic Smith run for 10 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
69.1%
Jalen Guyton 32 Yd pass from Mason Fine ( PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:0041% → 37%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
57.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
60.0%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 24Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
61.3%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 19Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+2
61.5%
Isaiah Clay run for 2 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
62.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
68.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
68.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+4
66.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 4 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
65.7%
Blake Patterson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brady Jones at the TexSA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 5:0739% → 82%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
61.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 9 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+3
59.7%
Isaiah Clay run for 3 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
60.7%
Isaiah Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 24Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-6
61.2%
Isaiah Clay run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 18Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+19
63.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 19 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
59.1%
Isaiah Clay run for 5 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+9
56.2%
Isaiah Clay run for 9 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
55.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+46
17.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 46 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5635% → 28%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
35.0%
Jalen Guyton run for 2 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+6
35.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 6 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-1
35.7%
Khairi Muhammad run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 47Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 3
OWN 47
-2
27.9%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:1192% → 91%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
8.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
7.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
7.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
8.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 36 yds, downed at the NoTex 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 98 yds · 0:5718% → 95%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
17.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+10
18.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 10 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
18.6%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+49
18.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 49 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
27.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 9 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
31.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+22
95.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 15 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST down lat. to Marquez McNair for 6 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:10
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+64.4
TD · Q4 3:29
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 46 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-37.4
TD · Q4 12:47
Jalen Guyton 32 Yd pass from Mason Fine ( PAT failed)
+26.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com