Try the model
MTSU

Middle Tennessee 23 at UAB 25

UAB
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Legion Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYFGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:49 · Matt Bonadies punt for 39 yds, downed at the UAB 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+20.5+10.30−10.3−20.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Pregame prior−9.1Home team on offense+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.2Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:42: Donnie Lee run for 23 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +3.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:49: Spencer Brown run for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +5.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:08: A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 19 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UAB win probability +9.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 3:22: Canon Rooker 46 yd FG GOOD — MTSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 8:16: Nick Vogel 33 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +13.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MTSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00UAB 4th & 5 at UAB 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:20UAB 4th & 4 at MTSU 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.0%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:23MTSU 4th & 6 at UAB 30, down 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.3%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:49MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:46UAB 4th & 5 at UAB 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:54UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:22MTSU 4th & 10 at UAB 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:26UAB 4th & 7 at UAB 28, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:50MTSU 4th & 14 at MTSU 24, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−3.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:30MTSU 4th & 15 at UAB 24, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−8.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:30UAB 4th & 7 at UAB 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:56MTSU 4th & 3 at UAB 42, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    53.2%−4.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−2.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:41UAB 4th & 15 at UAB 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−3.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:40MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:01MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−4.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:16UAB 4th & 6 at MTSU 16, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−5.9
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−19.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:10MTSU 4th & 7 at UAB 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:07UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 27, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−1.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:36UAB 4th & 1 at MTSU 39, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 9.8 ptsPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−4.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%−9.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:45MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:42UAB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:49UAB Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:08UAB Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    54.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UABDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.0%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
38.0%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
38.0%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete UAB Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
38.0%
Joel Dixon punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5862% → 63%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
38.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 21 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
38.4%
ANDERSON, Brad rush for no gain to the MT46 (MITCHELL, G.;WILLIAMS, D.), PENALTY UAB offside 5 yards to the UAB49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 5
OPP 49
+13
38.3%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 13 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
38.3%
Brad Anderson run for no gain to the UAB 36Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
38.3%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+10
38.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 10 yds to the UAB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
38.3%
Tavares Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 27Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+27
37.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 27 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0338% → 42%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.1%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Donnie Lee, broken up by Walter BradySimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.0%
Donnie Lee run for 2 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
37.9%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Donnie Lee, broken up by Mike MinterSimilar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+15
37.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (Darius Harris) to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
38.4%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the UAB 49Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
38.5%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Nick HolmanSimilar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+4
38.4%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
38.5%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+4
38.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 4 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
38.6%
James Noble III run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
38.7%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+8
38.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Donnie Lee for 8 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
42.0%
Donnie Lee run for 23 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4SF
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:1159% → 58%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
40.9%
URZUA, John pass incomplete, PENALTY MT holding (HAMILTON, Lucas) 3 yards to the MT4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 13
OWN 4
0
42.0%
Shaq Jones SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5643% → 43%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
42.9%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+3
43.1%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
43.1%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 4
OPP 31
-2
42.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Ronnie Turner Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:4458% → 60%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
42.0%
John Urzua run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+3
41.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 3 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
41.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 9 yds to the UAB 47Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+2
41.0%
Brad Anderson run for 2 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
41.2%
John Urzua run for 6 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
41.0%
Richie James run for 5 yds to the UAB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
40.8%
Richie James run for 4 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
40.7%
Richie James pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
41.2%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
40.4%
Canon Rooker 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3441% → 50%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
41.4%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Sederian Copeland for 13 yds to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
42.1%
A.J. Erdely run for 22 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+32
43.6%
A.J. Erdely run for 32 yds to the MTnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
44.4%
A.J. Erdely pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
49.7%
Spencer Brown run for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
47.8%
Brad Anderson run for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+6
48.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Patrick Smith for 6 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
48.8%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
49.1%
Matt Bonadies punt for 39 yds, downed at the UAB 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
49.3%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Jonathan Haden for 3 yds to the UAB 29 UAB Penalty, Offensive holding (Nick Holman) to the UAB 19Similar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 17
OWN 19
+2
49.1%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the UAB 21Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+6
49.0%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+4
48.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Sederian Copeland for 4 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
48.2%
Joel Dixon punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10INT
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:0049% → 53%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
50.6%
Tavares Thomas pass complete to Richie James for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+12
51.0%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 12 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-5
50.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+15
51.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 15 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
49.8%
John Urzua pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+35
50.2%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 35 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
47.2%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 23 yds to the UAB 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
47.2%
John Urzua pass intercepted Darious Williams return for 2 yds to the UAB 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3853% → 42%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
52.8%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 7Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+7
52.6%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the UAB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
52.9%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 12Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+5
52.8%
A.J. Erdely run for 5 yds to the UAB 17Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+3
52.1%
A.J. Erdely run for 3 yds to the UAB 20Similar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+20
41.8%
Joel Dixon punt , Kylan Stribling returns for 20 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4643% → 57%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
43.4%
Spencer Brown run for 51 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
47.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Ronnie Turner Jr. for 5 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+19
57.3%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 19 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 1:4046% → 51%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
54.3%
URZUA, John pass incomplete to JAMES, Richie, PENALTY UAB personal foul (RUSH, A.) 15 yards to the MT29, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
53.7%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 8 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+24
52.1%
Brad Anderson run for 24 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
51.2%
Brad Anderson run for 10 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
49.6%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Will DawkinsSimilar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
50.0%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
51.6%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie James, broken up by Garrison MitchellSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
49.0%
Canon Rooker 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5651% → 51%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
50.6%
Donnie Lee run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 22Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
50.2%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Ronnie Turner Jr. for 9 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
50.0%
A.J. Erdely run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 28Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+9
50.9%
Joel Dixon punt for 53 yds , Richie James returns for 9 yds to the MTnSt 37 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the MTnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2448% → 46%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
51.7%
Brad Anderson run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-19
51.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 29
OWN 9
+7
52.9%
Brad Anderson run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 22
OWN 16
+8
53.1%
Brad Anderson run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
54.1%
Matt Bonadies punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
51.8%
A.J. Erdely run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:3049% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.7%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
50.9%
John Urzua pass complete to CJ Windham for 26 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
47.5%
Brad Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+15
48.8%
URZUA, John pass incomplete to SMITH, Patrick, PENALTY UAB pass interference (WILLIAMS, D.) 15 yards to the UAB36, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
47.5%
Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+13
46.1%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 13 yds to the UAB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
46.1%
Brad Anderson run for 2 yds to the UAB 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
46.1%
John Urzua pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 1 yd to the UAB 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-8
47.4%
John Urzua sacked by Jordan Petty for a loss of 8 yards to the UAB 24Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+41
45.4%
Canon Rooker 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
45.3%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 7 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
47.8%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
46.9%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
46.5%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+5
45.8%
A.J. Erdely run for 5 yds to the UAB 47Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 2
OWN 47
-5
46.7%
UAB Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UAB 42Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
44.4%
Joel Dixon punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:5556% → 56%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
44.5%
Tavares Thomas run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
43.9%
Tavares Thomas run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
43.7%
John Urzua run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+3
43.2%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for 3 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
42.0%
Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
41.5%
Brad Anderson run for 9 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
40.8%
John Urzua pass complete to Terelle West for 4 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
40.9%
Terelle West run for 3 yds to the UAB 42Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
42.0%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Brad AndersonSimilar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
44.1%
Matt Bonadies punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
47.7%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Ronnie Turner Jr. for 8 yds to the UAB 28Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
50.4%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
48.4%
A.J. Erdely pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+22
48.3%
Spencer Brown run for 22 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
52.9%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Ronnie Turner Jr.Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
52.6%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre WilsonSimilar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
49.4%
A.J. Erdely pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 10
OPP 46
-5
47.5%
UAB Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UAB 49Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
46.3%
Joel Dixon punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.8%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
46.0%
Brad Anderson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
46.8%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
48.3%
Matt Bonadies punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22INT
7 plays · 52 yds · 0:5251% → 55%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
51.1%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 41Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
48.8%
A.J. Erdely run for no gain to the UAB 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+37
47.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 37 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
55.3%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Ronnie Turner Jr. for 9 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 13
0
55.3%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Collin Lisa, broken up by Darryl RandolphSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+6
52.8%
ERDELY, A.J. pass incomplete to LISA, C., PENALTY MT pass interference 6 yards to the MT7, 1ST DOWN UAB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+39
55.3%
A.J. Erdely pass intercepted Mike Minter return for 24 yds to the MTnSt 0 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
45.0%
Brad Anderson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+14
44.6%
Tavares Thomas run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
43.6%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
44.3%
John Urzua pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
45.9%
Jocquez Bruce run for no gain to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
47.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 24FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:4947% → 67%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
47.4%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 12Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 12
OWN 12
0
47.2%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre WilsonSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+25
45.4%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Ronnie Turner Jr. for 25 yds to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
49.5%
James Noble III run for 4 yds to the UAB 41Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
52.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Jonathan Haden for 5 yds to the UAB 46Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
51.6%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
52.8%
Spencer Brown run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
53.7%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 20 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
56.3%
ERDELY, A.J. pass complete to WILSON, A. for 6 yards to the MT14, out-of-bounds (WARD, C.), PENALTY MT substitution infraction 5 yards to the MT15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 5
OPP 15
0
56.3%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-1
56.3%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
53.7%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
66.9%
Nick Vogel 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
60.7%
John Urzua pass complete to Richie James for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+7
61.6%
Richie James run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+5
61.2%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 5 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
58.5%
Tavares Thomas run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
55.8%
Tavares Thomas run for 3 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
55.5%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
56.2%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
60.7%
Matt Bonadies punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0271% → 74%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
71.4%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
71.1%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
70.4%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 27Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+2
73.9%
Joel Dixon punt for 56 yds , Richie James returns for 2 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
69.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Richie James) to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 15
OWN 14
0
70.2%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Richie James, broken up by D.A. WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+16
70.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 16 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
68.7%
John Urzua pass incomplete to CJ Windham, broken up by Darious WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+27
69.7%
John Urzua pass intercepted for a 1ST down Broderick Thomas return for 12 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3882% → 91%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
81.5%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
82.9%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
82.3%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
90.5%
Joel Dixon punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:0015% → 19%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
85.0%
URZUA, John pass incomplete to LEE, Ty (CREWS, T.), PENALTY UAB pass interference 13 yards to the MT33, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
83.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 14 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
80.4%
John Urzua pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
81.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 6 yds to the UAB 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18.5
FG · Q4 8:16
Nick Vogel 33 yd FG GOOD
+13.3
TD · Q2 5:08
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 19 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com