2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreTULN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:30 · Jose Borregales 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 7:49: Jose Borregales 22 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +9.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:55: Jose Borregales 42 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +8.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:25: Dontrell Hilliard run for 12 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +16.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 5:25: Zachary Block kickoff for 58 yds , Bryce Singleton return for 29 yds to the FLAINTL 36 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the FlaIn 26 — FIU win probability +6.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 13:07: Shawndarrius Phillips run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +15.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 8:23TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snapGo for it74.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.9%average punt
- Q2 14:08TULN 4th & 5 at FIU 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snapGo for it65.2%−0.240% to convertField goalTheir call65.5%79% to makePunt62.3%−3.2average punt
- Q2 14:08FIU 4th & 5 at TULN 36, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.3%42% to convertField goal32.0%−0.342% to makePunt31.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 7:49FIU 4th & 5 at TULN 5, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snapGo for it37.5%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call37.6%92% to makePunt33.2%−4.4average punt
- Q2 7:49TULN 4th & 24 at FIU 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snapGo for it55.8%−1.67% to convertField goal56.9%−0.628% to makePuntTheir call57.5%average punt
- Q2 1:01TULN 4th & 3 at FIU 19, down 7Close callWent for it · 53.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.3%−0.151% to convertField goal53.3%77% to makePunt46.5%−6.8average punt
- Q3 8:55FIU 4th & 10 at TULN 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snapGo for it59.4%−1.028% to convertField goalTheir call60.4%66% to makePunt52.4%−8.0average punt
- Q3 5:25FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 34, up 3Close callPunted · 50.4% before the snapGo for it51.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.3%−0.6average punt
- Q3 3:31TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 30, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 45.3% before the snapGo for it47.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.8%−1.6average punt
- Q4 13:07TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 10, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 18.4% before the snapGo for it19.5%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.2%−1.3average punt
- Q4 11:06FIU 4th & 2 at TULN 33, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.8%57% to convertField goal79.9%−1.949% to makePunt78.9%−2.9average punt
- Q4 5:30FIU 4th & 5 at TULN 22, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snapGo for it89.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call89.5%72% to makePunt85.7%−3.8average punt
- Q4 5:30TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 29, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.9%39% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 3:13TULN 4th & 8 at FIU 17, down 13Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 5.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.5%−1.532% to convertField goal6.0%80% to makePunt3.0%−3.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TULN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 3:04FIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.3%97% to makeGo for two31.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:25TULN Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.8%97% to makeGo for two46.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:07FIU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.8%97% to makeGo for two80.5%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1INT17 plays · 50 yds · 5:4126% → 29%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+15
25.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 15 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
25.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 6 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+9
25.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 9 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+12
25.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 12 yds to the Tulan 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+4
28.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 4 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 11
OPP 27
0
28.9%
Alex McGough pass intercepted Parry Nickerson return for no gain to the Tulan 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 43 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
28.4%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Charles Jones II for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 36Similar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+16
28.8%
Zachary Block punt for 46 yds , Tony Gaiter IV returns for 16 yds to the FLAINTL 41 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the FlaIn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3TD8 plays · 83 yds · 2:5230% → 36%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
29.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 13 yds to the FlaIn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
30.3%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Thomas Owens, broken up by Parry NickersonSimilar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+58
29.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 58 yds to the Tulan 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 0
OPP 7
-5
31.5%
GARDNER, Alex rush for 5 yards to the TLN2 (EDWARDS, B.;MARBLEY, R.J.), PENALTY FIU illegal formation 5 yards to the TLN12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
36.3%
Alex McGough pass complete to Pharoah McKever for 12 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4FG10 plays · 57 yds · 3:5665% → 66%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.4%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Jacob Robertson Jr. for 8 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5FG17 plays · 78 yds · 6:1935% → 46%
Q2 14:08
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+15
36.7%
McGOUGH, Alex pass incomplete to PRICE, D'Vonte, PENALTY TLN pass interference (FRANKLIN, J.) 15 yards to the TLN41, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+7
35.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 7 yds to the Tulan 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
37.0%
Alex McGough run for 4 yds to the Tulan 18 for a 1ST down D'Vonte Price for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+8
37.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for 8 yds to the Tulan 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
36.6%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Thomas Owens, broken up by Parry NickersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
44.2%
BANKS, J. pass incomplete to ROBERTSON, J., PENALTY FIU pass interference (DAMES, Richard) 15 yards to the TLN45, 1ST DOWN TLN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
43.0%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Jacob Robertson Jr. for 4 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+22
42.5%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 7 yds to the FLAINTL 44 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the FlaIn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
41.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the FlaIn 43 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tulan Jonathan BanksSimilar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 24
OPP 43
0
45.7%
Zachary Block punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Tony Gaiter IV at the FlaIn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7INT5 plays · 37 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 4:58
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+38
48.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 38 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-5
50.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Napoleon Maxwell for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 48Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 13
OPP 48
0
48.4%
Alex McGough pass intercepted Tre Jackson return for no gain to the Tulan 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8DOWNS9 plays · 28 yds · 1:1753% → 48%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
46.6%
BANKS, J. pass incomplete to MOONEY, Darnell, PENALTY FIU personal foul (MUHAMMAD, Brad) 15 yards to the FIU26, 1ST DOWN TLN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 3
OPP 19
-6
51.7%
Jonathan Banks sacked by Bryce Canady for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaIn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · 16 yds · 0:0054% → 55%
TULNDrive 10INT5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0047% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
51.6%
Jonathan Banks pass intercepted Brad Muhammad return for 11 yds to the FlaIn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11FG10 plays · 46 yds · 4:2056% → 66%
TULNDrive 12TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3034% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
TULNDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15TD10 plays · 78 yds · 3:5156% → 82%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
55.6%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 11 yds to the FlaIn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+7
62.8%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 7 yds to the Tulan 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
62.8%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to D'Vonte Price, broken up by Donnie Lewis Jr.Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
81.7%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q4 13:07
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
81.2%
Zachary Block punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tony Gaiter IV at the FlaIn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17DOWNS5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
83.3%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 14 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18FUMBLE3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0016% → 13%
FIUDrive 19FG7 plays · 5 yds · 1:2391% → 97%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
90.5%
GARDNER, Alex rush for 1 yard to the TLN26 (JACKSON, Luke;SAMPLE, C.), PENALTY FIU holding (BUDWIG, Jordan) 10 yards to the TLN37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 19
OPP 36
+14
92.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 14 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20DOWNS15 plays · 52 yds · 2:174% → 2%
Q4 5:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
95.4%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Terren Encalade, broken up by Brad MuhammadSimilar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+25
95.8%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Jabril Clewis for 25 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
93.9%
Jonathan Banks pass incomplete to Terren Encalade, broken up by Noah CurtisSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+2
94.8%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 2 yds to the FlaIn 17Similar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 8
OPP 17
-6
98.0%
Jonathan Banks sacked by Fermin Silva and Fred Russ for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaIn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21END OF GAME5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:25
Dontrell Hilliard run for 12 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
-16.1
TD · Q4 13:07
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
+15
FG · Q2 7:49
Jose Borregales 22 yd FG GOOD
+9.5